Wales facing general election ‘earthquake’
THE Labour Party faces a general election meltdown in Wales, with it losing nearly half its MPs, according to an astonishing opinion poll.
And the Conservative Party is predicted to win the majority of Parliamentary seats in Wales for the first time in the democratic era.
The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre gives the Tories party an unprecedented 10% lead over Labour in Wales, putting Theresa May’s party on course to win 21 of the country’s 40 seats in June’s general election.
According to YouGov, the Conservatives are on 40%, Labour 30%, Plaid Cymru 13%, the Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 6% and Others 3%. Assuming a uniform swing across Wales, the Tories would win 21 seats, Labour 15, Plaid Cymru 3 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
If the poll predictions mirror the actual result, then the Conservatives are set to win 10 seats, all from Labour – Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff South & Penarth, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon.
Professor Roger Scully, of the Wales Governance Centre, said: “Something extraordinary could be about to happen. Wales is on the brink of an electoral earthquake.
“The Conservatives appear to be on course to win the majority of Welsh parliamentary seats for the first time in the democratic era, while Labour faces
‘Even in the disastrous 1983 election under Michael Foot, things were never this bad...’ – Professor Roger Scully
losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918.
“The poll was conducted on Wednesday to Friday last week, after Theresa May had announced her intention to seek approval for an election from parliament.
“Only one poll this century – in July 2009, at the very nadir of Gordon Brown’s fortunes as Prime Minister – has had Labour lower in Wales during this century. And I can find no precedent in any poll this century either for the Conservatives to be on 40% in Wales or for them to have a 10 percentage point lead over Labour in general election voting intentions.”
Prof Scully said the huge leap in the Tory rating had come mostly at the expense of Ukip: “The headline figures in our poll seem to reflect a direct move by many former Ukip supporters into the Conservative ranks: very nearly two-thirds of all our respondents who voted Ukip in the 2015 general election now say that they intend to support the Tories. Theresa May’s gamble of seeking a mandate for Brexit from the British people appears to have particular appeal to many of these voters.
“While Ukip seem to be on the slide in Wales, the other parties are stagnant. Plaid Cymru will presumably be pleased that the Tory surge has not eaten into their support, and they do start the general election campaign a percentage point or two better off than they did at the equivalent point two years ago.
“For the Liberal Democrats, this first Welsh poll of the election must be a disappointment – they show little signs of recovery from their disastrous 2015 general election performance in Wales. Much more will be needed from the Lib-Dems if they are to win back some of the votes and seats that they lost last time.”
Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are projected, by this poll, to hold the seats they currently have but make no gains.
Prof Scully said: “Were any such result to be produced on June 8 this would obviously be a big shift from the 2015 result in Wales. But it would also be a result of long-term historic significance. The Conservatives have not won a majority of Welsh seats at a general election since the 1850s – before the era of mass democracy. Labour have won the most votes and the most seats in Wales at every general election from 1922 onwards; and have won an absolute majority of Welsh seats in the last 20 successive general elections, from 1935 on.
“For the Conservatives potentially to be in a position not merely to finish ahead of Labour but even to win over half the seats in Wales indicates that we are on the brink of something truly seismic. And Labour seem to be facing a defeat of historic magnitude: even in the disastrous 1983 election under Michael Foot, things were never this bad.”
Prof Scully stressed that some caution was needed, however: “This is only one poll,” he said. “Moreover, there are more than six weeks of both national and local campaigning to go. It could be that the sight of Jeremy Corbyn on their television screens night-after-night will encourage voters to flock back to Labour. Or perhaps not.
“But even if this continues to be a difficult election overall for the party, their local campaigners and sitting MPs seeking re-election will be hoping that their hard work will enable them to buck what currently appear to be the national trends. That sometimes works – although as plenty of Liberal Democrats found out in 2015, more often it does not.
“But while showing due caution, we also should not underplay these findings. For once words like sensational and unprecedented do not seem out of place.”
Leader of the Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies said: “While the findings of this poll point to a very solid performance by the Welsh Conservatives in June, such polls come with a health warning given the industry’s failure to predict recent results. Here in Wales, Labour’s mask has slipped and the people of Wales are right to be concerned by Welsh Labour’s adoption of Corbynomics.”
A Plaid Cymru spokeswoman said: “This poll is a glimpse of a future which could await Wales. If the Tories do win on theses numbers, the future of our nation is at risk. No-one should forget that Tory ideology is all about privatising and cutting public services. That means longer waiting lists, poorer education and increased child poverty. We know what they are about because we remember the Tories’ record in Wales.
“With an increased mandate the Tories will privatise, cut and powergrab from our Assembly so that Wales’ ability to defend its own people will be reduced. We face a defining period for our country. Now is the time for people to get behind their local Plaid Cymru candidate to elect strong voices to speak up for Wales in Westminster.
“Labour to date has failed to do that and Wales has been ignored as a result. These polls tell us that Labour’s divisions mean they won’t be able to stop the Tories in this election. The only way to defend Wales from Tory attacks is to send the maximum number of Plaid Cymru MPs to London on June 8.”
The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1029 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from January 19-21 2017.