Four key things we’ve learned from the new French revolution
Imagine a US election in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a candidate on the ballot – that’s the scale of the upset of the French election, writes Political Editor David Williamson...
VOTERS in France will choose between a former investment banker who launched his own party and a hard-right populist who wants to take a wrecking ball to the EU.
Next month’s run-off vote will determine whether the world’s sixth biggest economy is led by either the National Front’s Marine Le Pen or On the Move’s Emmanuel Macron.
This is going to grip the attention of anyone with even the mildest interest in politics, and rightly so. A Macron victory would have major implications for the UK’s Brexit negotiations – but if Ms Le Pen wins the future existence of the EU would be in doubt.
Here are some key reasons why this election has sent shockwaves far beyond France.
1. More than 7.5 million people were willing to vote for a party many regard as a political pariah.
Marine Le Pen’s father was long considered a dangerous presence in European politics who prowled on the fringe of the far-right before getting through to the second round of the presidential elections in 2002.
His daughter – who has feuded with her dad – has worked to detoxify the party but she backs a moratorium on immigration and has presented herself as a defender of France against both globalisation and Islamism.
She managed to beat the official candidates of the once-mighty Republican and Socialist parties. This is the equivalent of an antiimmigration party eclipsing both Labour and the Tories in vote share.
2. This is proof that the two-party system can be broken.
In US elections there are regular discussions about whether a thirdparty candidate could defeat both the contenders from the two big parties. Today in France ambitious men and women in the Republican and Socialist parties will wonder whether they still have a future in these ancient institutions.
Not only was each party unable to stamp on the National Front, they were outfoxed by 39-year-old Mr Macron who launched On the Move and called for cuts to corporation tax and the deficit.
Real questions will be asked if the Socialists, the party of President Francois Hollande, can recover after its candidate, Benoît Hamon, won a paltry 6.4% (with 97% of results counted).
There is already soul-searching in long-standing centre-left parties around the world that have lost their hold on voters. There will be fears that in the UK Labour could face a similar threat to its future if the general election proves a catastrophe. 3. Nevertheless, this can be seen as a victory for the establishment. Mr Macron is the clear favourite to win in the final round. He has been endorsed by the defeated Republican Francois Fillon and he can expect the lion’s share of the left’s vote.
Mr Macron may have sped to the top of the polls in a political vehicle of his own construction but he is no outsider and hardly a radical.
He attended an elite high school and studied at institutions such as Sciences Po and the École nationale d’administration. These are gateways to the political establishment.
Not only did he work as a banker at Rothschild & Company, he served as a minister under President Hollande.
Far from seeking to dismantle the European Union, he wants to see the appointment of a finance minister for the eurozone. Despite rampant euroscepticism in France on both the left and the right, he has made the case for a strengthening of integration and been rewarded at the polls.
The success of this centrist has delighted his UK counterparts who have watched the rise of populism in the UK. Former Chancellor George Osborne described Mr Macron as his “friend”, adding: “Proof you can win from the centre. At last, the chance for the leadership that France needs.”
Ex-Foreign Secretary David Miliband also took to Twitter, saying: “Tremendous achievement... Bulwark against evil forces and tribune for modernization in France and Europe.”
4. Britain shouldn’t expect an easy ride from Mr Macron.
It is fair to say that allowing the UK to have its cake and eat it is not on the agenda for Mr Macron.
Last year he told Bloomberg: “I don’t want a tailor-made approach where the British have the best of two worlds. That will be too big an incentive for others to leave and kill the European idea, which is based on shared responsibilities.”
In other words, there is no reason to think he will push the EU negotiating team to adopt a softer approach than has already been outlined.
This is unlikely to panic Downing St. Whitehall has been working with committed French proponents of ever closer union for decades.
What would scare civil servants is the chaos that would result if Ms Le Pen wins.
She would demand changes to EU rules and structures that would end the union as we know it – and she also supports a referendum on Frexit.
Such a disruption would make Brexit talks within the two-year Article 50 time-frame all but impossible and plunge UK and the EU into damaging instability.