Why the forthcoming general election is critical for Plaid Cymru’s future...
THE June election will be a critical test for Plaid Cymru. It has the chance to exploit UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s disastrous poll ratings and reach out to pro-EU voters who normally back other parties.
Nobody expects Plaid to achieve an SNP-style landslide in Wales, but can the party at least win one in 10 of the nation’s 40 seats? If it can’t people will ask: If not now, will it ever?
On election night, Plaid will either celebrate a major breakthrough or be plunged into a deep bout of soulsearching.
Here are five opportunities Plaid supporters will expect the party to grasp in the run-up to June 8.
1. Plaid has the chance to win the loyalty of pro-EU voters.
Last year 47.5% of voters in Wales backed staying in the European Union. Plaid has the challenge of persuading people who want to preserve strong links with the EU to back their party.
Plaid MPs voted for a second referendum and also want a requirement for the Assembly to endorse a final Brexit deal before it can be signed.
Plaid has extra incentive to stress its europhile credentials because a key target seat will be Ceredigion, which it represents in the Assembly but is held by the pro-EU Liberal Democrats at Westminster.
2. If it can’t beat Labour now, when can it?
A recent analysis suggested Labour could lose eight seats and fail to win half of Wales’ constituencies for the first time since 1931. Jeremy Corbyn’s woeful approval ratings are considered a key reason why Theresa May took the gamble of calling for a snap election.
In recent years Plaid has invested huge energy in presenting itself as an alternative to Labour in Wales. Failure to make progress in June will put a question mark over this strategy.
Here in Wales, Labour can be expected to fight a distinctively Welsh campaign in which the Assembly leadership will play a high-profile role. However, the Conservatives at both a UK and Welsh level will be determined to present the election as a straight choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn; it’s Plaid’s challenge to persuade Welsh voters to reject both options.
Plaid will further hope that disunity in Ukip will weaken the eurosceptic party which in recent elections has also gone after disenchanted Labour supporters. 3. It has the challenge of beating its rivals when it comes to turnout.
Expectations are so high Theresa May will be returned as Prime Minister that many voters will decide that the election is a foregone conclusion.
A lack of enthusiasm for Mr Corbyn among traditional Labour voters and a sense that Mrs May has the election in the bag among people who voted Tory in 2015 could force down overall turnout, but create opportunities for Plaid.
Can Plaid find unique selling points that could make the difference between a voter staying on the sofa and going to the polling to the station, or persuade unenthusiastic past backers of Labour or the Conservatives to lend the party their votes?
Concern for the future of the Welsh language and hyper-local campaigns could make the vital difference.
Turnout is likely to be key in deciding who wins marginal seats such as Anglesey – where Labour beat Plaid in 2015 by just 229 votes.
Former Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones clearly thinks Anglesey – a seat he represented at both Westminster and the Assembly – is winnable. He wants to be the party’s candidate in June.
In the Assembly election Leanne Wood ousted Labour from Rhondda, and Plaid came within 650 votes of taking Blaenau Gwent.
4. Can Leanne Wood make the most of UK-wide attention?
The general election will bring Ms Wood unique attention from UKwide broadcasters. Can she use these appearances in front of an audience of millions to energise voters in the specific seats in Wales where Plaid has a chance of winning?
She has been at the helm of the party since 2012. This is her chance to use her profile to shape the Welsh debate to Plaid’s advantage.
5. Can Plaid accelerate down the path blazed by the SNP?
The SNP has shown a pro-independence party can triumph in Westminster elections. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP won 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats in 2015 while Plaid won only three of Wales’ 40.
There are major historic and economic reasons which make it easier for Scottish voters to contemplate independence than for their Welsh counterparts. But can Plaid repeat the SNP’s success at fomenting dissatisfaction with Labour in former industrial heartlands?
If it can’t, supporters may ask with a new urgency if the party they love is doing something wrong. However, Plaid does face key challenges as well as opportunities.
1. There is much less chance of a hung parliament than in 2015
Last time around there was a strong expectation that neither Labour nor the Conservatives would win an outright majority and that parties such as Plaid and the SNP could demand concessions in exchange for support on key votes.
Unless Labour’s performance radically improves in the coming weeks few people are going to expect a hung parliament. Today, at least, there appears little chance of Plaid being asked to consider a confidence and supply arrangement.
This will make it harder for Plaid to argue it will get the chance to make its manifesto policies a reality. Can it get voters excited at the idea of increasing the size of an opposition grouping?
2. Labour may escape a meltdown in Wales
There is the possibility that a UK Conservative campaign inevitably focused on winning in England, where around 84% of the UK population live, will fail to strike a chord with voters in Wales. This could help stop a string of red seats turning blue – and also make it easier for Welsh Labour to challenge Plaid as to which party is best positioned to stand up for Wales.
Labour cheers will be heard throughout Wales if it can win back the two seats it lost in 2015, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd, the first of which was taken by the Tories by just 27 votes.
If the night of June 8 is seen to go better for Labour than Plaid then there will be calls for a sweeping overhaul of party strategy.