Labour in fightback but Tories still ahead – poll
LABOUR has cut back the Conservatives’ lead in Wales, according to a new poll – but only by increasing its own support at the expense of smaller parties including Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems.
The YouGov poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Wales was released on the day that Carwyn Jones launched Welsh Labour’s general election manifesto – without making a single mention of Jeremy Corbyn.
Two weeks ago the Tories had a lead of 10 percentage points over Labour, and were forecast to win a majority of the seats in Wales for the first time since the 1850s.
That lead has now been cut to six percentage points – but on a uniform swing the Conservatives would still be on course to pick up nine seats from Labour.
Meanwhile the First Minister claimed there was nothing unusual about Welsh Labour’s campaign being launched with no reference at all to the man it wants to see elected as Prime Minister.
LABOUR is fighting back in Wales – but the Conservatives are still on course for an historic triumph at the general election.
Two weeks ago a Welsh Political Barometer poll from YouGov created shockwaves across Britain by suggesting that the Conservatives were 10 percentage points ahead of Labour in Wales – a result that on a uniform swing would see the Tories winning 10 seats from Labour.
Now the Conservative lead has been clipped back to six percentage points – with them up from 40% to 41%, Labour up from 30% to 35%, but with the smaller parties squeezed. Plaid Cymru are down from 13% to 11%, the Liberal Democrats down from 8% to 7%, Ukip down from 6% to 4% and Others down from 3% to 2%.
Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, which organises the polls in association with ITV Wales, said: “The big change on our previous poll is clearly the recovery in Labour support.
“After doing exceptionally badly in the last poll, they have now pulled back within two percentage points of their Welsh vote share in the last general election.
“Yet Labour have not been able to eat into Conservative support at all. Although barely changed since our last poll, the Tories’ 41% is a new high for them in any Welsh opinion poll, ever.
“At this early stage of the general election campaign, the two largest parties seem to be squeezing the smaller ones: Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and Ukip have all seen their support edge downwards since two weeks ago.”
On the basis of a uniform swing, the new poll would see Labour losing nine Welsh seats to the Conservatives: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and Ynys Mon. The reduction in the Conservatives’ lead would see Labour retain Cardiff South and Penarth.
Overall, the new make-up of Wales’ 40 seats would be Conservatives 20 (+9), Labour 16 (-9), Plaid Cymru 3 (no change) and Liberal Democrats 1 (no change).
Prof Scully said: “As with our previous poll, Plaid and the Liberal Democrats are projected to hold the seats they currently have but make no gains. Although this projection is one seat better for Labour than our last poll, such a result would nonetheless decisively break Labour’s record of coming first in both votes and seats in Wales at every general election from 1922 onwards. After they showed considerable resilience in last week’s local elections, this poll provides further evidence that Labour – which has been the dominant party in Wales for nearly a century – are not quite ready to roll over and die.
“It is possible that our previous poll slightly over-stated the extent of Labour decline, and they clearly remain very much ‘in the game’ in a large number of seats in Wales.
“The poll also shows that the early part of the election campaign has done no favour to the smaller parties, who have been squeezed by the media focus on May versus Corbyn.
“Above all, what this new poll does is confirm that the Conservative challenge to Labour’s longstanding dominance in Wales is very real.
The poll had a sample of 1,018 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from May 5-7 2017.