Ukip failing to hold on to those who voted for the party in 2015
A WIDE-RANGING survey of thousands of people in Wales suggests voters are slipping away from Ukip as the June 8 election nears.
The results of the survey of more than 3,500 people indicate Ukip is having the least success at keeping the loyalty of 2015 voters.
Only a third (33.33%) of those who backed the party when it was led by Nigel Farage intend to support it this time.
The survey carried out on our websites suggests the Conservatives are doing the best job of holding onto voters who backed the party in the 2015 election – 87.98% of people who voted for David Cameron’s Tories plan to back Theresa May next month.
Labour is doing the next best, with 80.87% of those who backed the party under Ed Miliband planning to do so with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm.
However, this unweighted survey of 3,518 individuals suggests other parties are having a harder time.
Just over seven out of 10 Plaid Cymru voters (70.8%) will support the party led by Leanne Wood once again.
But only just over half (56.48%) of people who backed Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats in 2015 intend to back the party led at a UK level by Tim Farron.
Welsh Ukip MEP Nathan Gill acknowledged the challenge facing the anti-EU party.
He said: “Obviously, we’re not daft.
“We acknowledge the fact that a lot of people are going to be voting Conservative because they see that as the way of basically finalising the whole Brexit process by having a strong Brexit Prime Minister, which is how she has sold herself.
“There is very little we can do because we have been pretty much pushed to one side by all of the talk that’s being going on from the Conservative Party...
“They’ve basically done a very good job at presenting themselves as the Brexit Government, despite the fact that of course we all know Theresa May was a Remainer.”
However, he said that if a Conservative government failed to deliver “then our time will come again”.
This is not a weighted scientific opinion poll but the findings give a sense of the success of each party at striking a chord with voters.
It also provides an insight into where voters may turn when they abandon one party.
The Conservatives have picked up the lion’s share of former Ukip voters (38.65%), followed by Labour (12.56%) and Plaid Cymru (6.76%).
People who have turned from Labour are going to the Conservatives (8.33%) and Plaid (3.89%).
The Conservatives are losing voters to Labour (4.01%) and the Liberal Democrats (3.38%).
Former Plaid voters are turning to Labour (11.26%) and the Conservatives (9.62%).
Ex-Lib Dem voters are opting for Labour (16.06%) and the Conservatives (15.54%).
The Welsh Google survey suggests that Labour could win the General Election in Wales as the party would be on course to win the highest share of the vote (36.84%), ahead of the Tories (31.35%), Plaid Cymru (16.74%), the Lib Dems (7.05%) and Ukip 3.47%.
These are the local issues that respondents said were most likely to influence their vote:
A new funding formula for the Welsh Government (28.28%);
■ The Severn Crossing tolls (15.74%);
■ Support for Tata Steel and Ford (15.25%);
■ The Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon (14.46%);
■ Improved digital connectivity (13.87%);
■ Rail electrification (12.4%). Issues such as health and education are the responsibility of the AMs and not the MPs who are up for election on June 8, but our survey suggests these topics will influence how people in Wales vote.
People said they would be influenced by: Health/the NHS (21.97%); The economy (18.96%); Brexit (18.11%); Education (15.45%); Jobs (12.73%); Immigration (9.55%). There was considerable support for Theresa May going for the snap election.
Just over half (51.68%) thought she was right to push for the country to go to the polls; only 33.6% thought she was wrong to do so.