‘We must think fast, or we will aid and abet a dangerous Labour defeat

The time has come for Carwyn Jones’party to consider an anti-Tory coalition even if that means a referendum on Welsh independence, writes Labour-supporting Cardiff University academic Huw Williams. The lecturer in political philosophy argues that the futu

THE prospect of a Tory majority in Wales, years deep into a time of austerity, may dumbfound us – yet it should not be altogether surprising.

We might view it as the sudden denouement of a gradual decline since the highs of 1997 – a conclusion by some of the faithful in Wales that a strong British Labour Party did not usher in the transformational change required to ward off their relative deprivation, and that our Assembly can only apply a little ointment to the searing cuts of Tory austerity.

Disenchantment has set in for many – we must not deny it – and it is intertwined with the weakening of a way of life that animated previous generations and ensured socialism was a communal way of being; ideas that were lived in, not spoken of.

This steady dwindling has been there to see in the figures for many years, and yet there is still to be a dramatic drop – it is the immediacy of a chimera called Brexit that has captured the frenzied imagination of a public mercilessly pumped and primed by the xenophobia, the lies and (let us please be honest about this) the resurgent aggressive nationalism of little England.

Moreover, there remains little of a crumbling Welsh cultural and societal bulwark to protect us from this heady mix of Great British propaganda and alt-right “facts”.

It is no surprise that a small yet significant majority of us therefore voted to leave the perceived Leviathan of the European Union – in fact it is surprising that the majority was not larger, given our demography. And now it comes as no surprise that when our leader, so stable and strong, should declare an election in order to strengthen her grip in riding the mythical beast, many should choose to follow her.

We have of course recovered once before from unadulterated Tory rule in recent times. With the taste of the shame and ashes of 1979’s failure in our mouths, and 18 years of hard labour – and worklessness for many – having passed, Wales began again with a “very good morning indeed”.

Indeed, so the myth goes, there should be a statue of Thatcher in the Senedd, for it was the hardship experienced under her rule that brought forth devolution.

To some in Plaid Cymru, it is the supposed demise of Labour that gives them hope at this time. Labour delenda est – the citadel must fall if the people are to rise again, and a few more years of suffering under the rule of the oppressor should gird the loins for the final, historic battle.

One can see the logic and their attraction to such an argument, but they must be careful what they wish for. History is never replayed and we must remind ourselves again that Wales is not what it was.

Economic decline, demographic change and a thinning social fabric render us less robust in the face of such an endless sapping of strength and dignity. And the frailty of our communities matches the dimness of fading memories of a brighter past that were with us in the 1980s but which now are barely discernible in the capitalist, post-truth, digital greyness that is enveloping us.

An impoverished and weakened Wales is no more likely to yield a resurgent independent Wales than it is to fulfil the socialist dreams of the hard left. Rather than push people into a reaction, a regressive government is as likely to disempower them.

A future reminiscent of the Tudor state of yore is therefore an equal possibility, a vision that echoes in the voice of those who speak of Brexit’s liberation. We must face up to the possibility that this may be the beginning of the end – and that this land, in time, will be inhabited by the empty carapace of a people known as the Welsh, with their spirit dissipated far and wide, and sunken into the land that sustained them for so long.

The dangers of laying ourselves prostrate in front of Theresa May and her band of Dic Sion Dafydds are clear enough to many.

As much as we must hate to admit it, voting Labour is not “the only way to remove Theresa May” – although it remains of course the key plank in any such strategy and for defending Wales against the blue tide. And for those who put party over people, of course, Labour’s entrails will disappear with them.

We must think again and we must think fast, because we will aid and abet a dangerous Labour defeat for Wales and beyond if we continue as we are. We cannot be sure that we will live to fight another day – failure in the General Election and the establishment of new voting patterns will inevitably lead to decline in the Assembly, leaving the way clear for an emboldened Tory Party with the British establishment at its behest.

Should we think for one moment that this is a blip from which we must surely recover, we need only look at the collapse in Scotland.

What is to be done? Carwyn Jones must be brave and bold. He must seek to embody that which social democratic politics has always been about – namely the human capacity to change, to reform, to take hold of history and mould events to the benefit of all.

Changing the world, emancipating the human spirit, is the core of the socialist creed. To sit and wait, and allow events to define us, is to repudiate those beliefs. As it stands, our spirit is being deformed and defaced by a power and ideology that will have no mercy upon us.

We must seek friends wherever we can in this battle to save ourselves and to buttress progressive forces on these Isles. Not only must we support each other in an anti-Tory coalition (official or otherwise) across the whole of Wales, Carwyn must also address the long-term decline of his party and his people; because if he does not it will be desolation for Wales under Tory rule.

An alliance will be an effective method for papering over the cracks that could even see gains, but as life inevitably declines under Brexit Wales’ wasted communities wil need more care in the short term and protection in the long term.

In this respect, there is one goal in Carwyn’s possession that must be pursued with renewed zeal and wil be one of the conditions for an antiTory electoral pact: that is the federalisation of the UK – which means greater autonomy for Wales.

This is the one certain course of action that can ensure Wales is more secure, more capable and more equal in its dealings with Westminster and which can provide renewed vigour and energy in the Labour Party. With the whispers of a Westminster power grab, the steamroller of Brexit winding its way inexorably towards us, and the threat of Scotland and Northern Ireland leaving us as Montenegro to England’s Serbia, a referendum on full devolution must surely be his call – not only to protect his party, but to protect his people.

If Plaid want it, they may demand another, more direct question on the paper. Asking the Welsh people about independence is not only legitimate given the times we live in it would likely engage many more