Tory lead in Wales wiped out by Labour fightback – latest poll
THE Labour Party is fighting back in Wales and is predicted to win the majority of seats here after overtaking the Tories for the first time since the snap General Election was called, according to a new poll.
The 10% and 6% lead Theresa May’s Conservatives had in two previous polls, which led to predictions of a historic triumph, has been wiped out after a resurgence of support for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party in the last two weeks.
The findings are from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll and put Labour on 44%, up from the 35% it was predicted on May 8.
The Conservatives are now on 34% (down 7%); Plaid Cymru on 9% (down 2%); Liberal Democrats on 6% (down 1%); Ukip on 5% (up 1%) and others 3% (up 1%).
Professor Roger Scully, from the University of Cardiff, said the results were broadly in line with the Britainwide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days. He said: “The extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.”
Prof Scully said things looked very different compared to the centre’s previous two polls that suggested the Conservatives were on course to win a number of seats from Labour.
LABOUR has stormed back into the lead in Wales, reversing two recent poll findings that showed the Conservatives significantly ahead.
The new YouGov poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales shows Labour on 44% (+9 since the last poll earlier this month), the Conservatives on 34% (-7), Plaid Cymru on 9% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (-1), Ukip on 5% (+1) and Others on 3% (+1).
The first two polls of this general election campaign showed clear Conservative leads in Wales, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough.
Professor Roger Scully, of the Wales Governance Centre, said: “The most important change from the previous poll is clearly the resurgence in Labour support. This is broadly in line with the Britainwide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days.
“But the extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.
“Meanwhile, as was seen in our previous poll, the smaller parties continue to be squeezed: Plaid Cymru are down two more points, and the Liberal Democrats a further one, on our last poll two weeks ago.”
A projection of the new figures using a uniform national swing would see Labour winning back Gower from the Conservatives. The seat was won by the Conservatives’ Byron Davies with a majority of just 27 in 2015.
No other seats would change hands, leaving Labour with 26 seats (up one from 2015), the Conservatives 10 seats (down 1), Plaid Cymru 3 (no change) and Liberal Democrat 1 (no change).
Prof Scully said: “Our two previous polls had suggested the Conservatives to be on course to win a whole slew of seats from Labour. Things now look very different on these latest figures.
“As with both our previous polls, Plaid and the Liberal Democrats are apparently on course to hold the seats they currently have, but to make no gains beyond these. So what can we make of these latest findings? While Labour have been making some progress in the Britain-wide polls, it is not on the scale of what we see here in Wales, where the party are fully 14 points higher than they were in the first poll of the campaign.
“We must always allow for the possibility that some polls produce ‘outlier’ estimates of the support for particular parties. But assuming that the findings in our new Welsh poll are correct, they may have been at least partially influenced by the timing of the poll – the fieldwork for which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the death of Rhodri Morgan.
“It is possible that there may have been some short-term ‘sympathy’ boost for Labour.
“Our new poll was also conducted in the aftermath of the ITV Welsh leaders’ debate, while much of the fieldwork also occurred in the period after Thursday’s Britain-wide five-party televised debate.
“Leanne Wood represented Plaid Cymru in these two events, while the Liberal Democrats and Ukip were also present in both.
“That the smaller parties continue to make no ground in the campaign will be very disappointing for them, and particularly in the aftermath of the television debates.
“Thus far, at least, these debates and the public platform they have provided do not appear to have given any sort of ‘bounce’ to the smaller parties.”
Prof Scully said that while short-term factors may account for some of the outcomes in the latest poll, it does appear that after the extraordinary success of the Conservative Party at the beginning of the election campaign, they are losing some ground to Labour.
He said: “At least for the moment, Labour seem to be winning the campaign, if not the election as a whole.
“That is particularly true in Wales. The recent local elections showed the resilience of the Welsh Labour party. A party does not dominate the politics of a nation for nearly a century, as Labour have done in Wales, simply by accident.
“Challenged strongly by the Conservatives in this election, Labour seem to be fighting back strongly.
“There are more than two weeks of campaigning to go, and all to play for. And Labour are still very much in the game.”
A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “Welsh Labour weren’t throwing in the towel when the pollsters put us 10 points behind, focussing instead on campaigning seat by seat on our record and vision for the future.
“We remain similarly focused after today’s poll and will not let up the pace one iota.
“This huge volatility shows just how much there is to fight for in the last two weeks of this campaign. And unlike the Tories, we are not taking people for granted.
“The only thing that’s certain is that this is a straight fight between Welsh Labour and the Tories - and only a vote for Welsh Labour can counter the prospect of a Tory landslide in Westminster, and five more years of cruel Tory cuts. We simply cannot let the Tories trample all over Wales again.”
A Plaid Cymru spokeswoman said: “It’s clear that the people of Wales are concerned about the prospect of an emboldened Conservative government and they are looking for an alternative. People want a party that will defend Wales.
“We know that Labour is too weak and too divided to provide that alternative – only Plaid Cymru will stand up for Wales. Whilst the Tories and Labour will put Wales’ interests at the back of the queue, Plaid Cymru will fight every day to ensure that Wales’ voice is heard in Westminster.”
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1,025 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from May 18-21.