Labour will win back seats fromTories inWales – poll
THE Labour Party is on course to win back the seats it lost to the Conservatives in Wales in the 2015 general election, a new poll has indicated. The latest findings of the Welsh Political Barometer poll predict that Jeremy Corbyn’s party could be set to have the best night it has had in the country since 2001, winning 46% of the vote share.
The figure represents a dramatic turnaround for the party and is up 16 points on the first Wales-wide opinion poll of the General Election campaign, published on April 24, when the Conservatives were predicted to win the majority of parliamentary seats in Wales for the first time in the democratic era. In that prediction, Labour trailed 10 points behind on 30% while the second poll on May 8 predicted a 6% lead for the Tories. A third poll on May 22 put Labour ahead for the first time and the latest YouGov poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales puts Labour on 46% (up 2% on the last poll); Conservatives on 35% (up 1%); Plaid Cymru on 8% (down 1%); Liberal Democrats on 5% (down 1%); Ukip on 5% (no change) and others 0% (down 3%).
Professor Roger Scully, from the University of Cardiff, said the results showed the previous poll was not a “fluke” or the product of a sympathy factor after the death on May 17 of much-loved former First Minister Rhodri Morgan.
LABOUR has moved further ahead of the Conservatives in Wales, and is on course to win back two seats it lost at the last election, according to a new poll.
The YouGov poll, for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales, put Labour on 46% (+2 from last week’s poll), the Conservatives on 35% (+1), Plaid Cymru on 8% (-1), the Liberal Democrats 5% (-1), Ukip 5% (no change) and Others 0% (-3).
On the basis of a uniform swing, Labour would win back Gower and Vale of Clwyd from the Conservatives, having lost them in 2015.
No other constituencies would change hands, leaving Labour with 27 seats, the Conservatives nine, Plaid Cymru three and the Liberal Democrats one.
Two polls at the start of the General Election campaign saw the Conservatives significantly ahead of Labour, and predicted to win up to 10 further seats, possibly making it the majority party in Wales for the first time since the 1850s, before the democratic era.
The seats at risk at the time were said to be Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham, Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff West and Cardiff South & Penarth.
But last week’s poll saw Labour back on familiar territory, at 10% ahead of the Tories. The new poll puts them 11 points ahead.
Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre said: “The revival in the fortunes of the Welsh Labour Party is holding firm, while Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are on course for historically bad election results.
“This has been an erratic election in Wales: the first two polls of the campaign showed clear Conservative leads, and indicated that the Tories were on course for an historic electoral breakthrough. But our last poll indicated a dramatic Labour fightback.”
Prof Scully said there were no substantial changes since the previous poll last week; all movements were well within the “margin of error”.
He added: “The first two previous polls of the campaign had suggested the Conservatives to be on course to make substantial seat gains in Wales from Labour, and possibly even to come first in both seats and votes.
“But things have changed around dramatically in recent weeks. Labour support has apparently surged. While the Conservatives are still polling well above their actual vote share in 2015, on this poll they would lose both of the seats that they gained from Labour in the last general election: Gower and the Vale of Clwyd.
“As has been the case in all previous polls during this campaign, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats apparently remain on course to hold the seats they currently have but make no gains.”
Prof Scully said the latest findings suggested the dramatic Labour revival seen in last week’s poll was not simply a fluke, or the product of a sympathy factor after the death of Rhodri Morgan.
He said: “Welsh Labour, these polls are suggesting strongly, are very much back.
“Indeed, if the figures from this poll were to be produced on election day then we would see the Labour Party gain their largest vote share in Wales at a general election since 2001. That would be an extraordinary achievement for the party.
“Labour success appears to be grounded particularly among younger voters: these have long been more inclined to support Labour than the Conservatives, but the Labour advantage among 18-24 year old voters in our latest poll is running at approximately three-to-one.
“Of course, such younger voters are often less reliable in terms of turnout, so one of the key factors for Labour in this last week of the campaign will be converting supportive attitudes amongst younger voters into actual votes in the ballot box.”
For the Conservatives, however, the reversal in their fortunes seems to reflect less a decline in their support and more the success of Labour, said Prof Scully.
“After all, this poll still has the Tories almost eight percentage points higher than their actual Welsh vote share in 2015.
“Yet the details of the poll also show that some of the advantages the Conservatives appeared to enjoy earlier in the campaign have eroded.
“Conservative support among 2015 Ukip voters has ebbed: in the first two polls of the campaign, approximately two-thirds of such voters backed the Tories. Now that proportion has slipped to just over half.
“Meanwhile, the Conservatives’ emphasis on leadership may also be much less of an advantage than it was: Theresa May’s poll ratings have slipped significantly in the course of the campaign, while the popularity of Jeremy Corbyn has risen.
“The May versus Corbyn contrast that the Conservatives have sought to make central to the campaign could be working much less well for them now than it was doing.
“However, the Tories retain one considerable strength: voters still rank Brexit as the most important issue in the election, and rate the Conservatives as the best party to deal with this issue.”
Prof Scully said that prospects for the election were, however, starting to look very ominous for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.
He said: “Were the two parties to do no better on polling day than in our latest poll, then this would be Plaid’s lowest general election vote share since 1987, and the worst ever experienced in Wales by the Liberal Democrats and their predecessor parties.
“Even in the darkest days of Liberalism, in the 1950s, their vote share in Wales never dipped as low as 5%.
“Although these parties and their leaders have had plentiful opportunities to publicise their party’s messages during the campaign, nothing they have done thus far seems to be working.
“This could turn out to be an historic general election in Wales, although perhaps not in the ways we were thinking when the Conservatives were storming ahead of Labour in the polls.
“Our new poll gives the two largest parties a combined 81% of the vote. The last time that Labour and the Conservatives jointly won over 80% of the vote in Wales was 1966.
“But, for the moment at least, twoparty politics seems to be back. And Labour are holding their position as the leading party in Wales.”
A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “From day one of this election, Welsh Labour have fought hard for every vote right across Wales, in a positive campaign led from the front by our leader, Carwyn Jones. We will continue to do so until June 8.
“Polls across the board remain volatile. However, as on the doorstep, it seems that people are responding well to our positive vision for Wales, and rejecting the Tory plans for more cruel cuts.”
The poll had a sample of 1,014 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov between May 29 and May 31.
A further Wales-wide poll is expected before polling day.