Poll swings are exciting but it will all rest on young voters
After over-estimating Labour’s support in 2015, pollsters are experimenting with new ways of measuring voting intention. But ultimately, says chief reporter Martin Shipton, the result will depend on how many young people turn out to vote
AN ELECTION whose result seemed a foregone conclusion at the start of the campaign could now be on a knife-edge, according to some polls.
Others, however, show what remain fairly convincing Conservative leads.
How can this be possible? After failing to predict a Tory overall majority at the last general election in 2015, the polling companies engaged in a long period of introspection and self-searching. When they emerged from limbo, they decided there was a need to finetune the methods they used when interpreting data.
It’s easy to assume that the perfect poll is simply based on a cross-section of the voting population split in the correct proportions according to gender, age, social class and location.
But that.
Older people – and especially pensioners – have in recent elections been far more likely to vote than younger people, especially those aged 18-24. With younger voters far more likely to back Labour, this gives the Conservatives a significant advantage.
All polling companies give greater weighting to older voters because of this historic fact.
But at the current election, some companies are changing their position because of a view that Jeremy Corbyn has enthused many young people to consider voting for the first time.
The fact that a politician of pensionable age is able to achieve such a feat is a further element in what has become an increasingly unpredictable contest.
Explaining why he feels justified in hedging his bets, Anthony Wells of YouGov has written an article for his company’s website in which he states: “As the polls currently stand we are headed for one of two election results. It’s possible that, come election day, all that young enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn will translate into real votes, leading to a close election with perhaps a small Tory majority or even a hung Parliament. In that case, our figures will end up about right and, assuming that turnout patterns will be the same in 2017 as they were in 2015, will have caused some other pollsters to miss the real story. The alternative is that all those young Corbynistas will prove a mirage and that some polls still contain too many of the sort of it’s more complicated than young people who vote, with the end result being that the Conservatives win a large or landslide majority. In that case, it will suggest the methods we’ve tried to correct the problems of 2015 probably haven’t worked yet and we’ll need to explore turnout models based on demographics or alternative solutions.”
The latest YouGov poll for The Times shows a lead of just three points for the Conservatives across the UK. Accompanying the poll is a seat-by-seat projection which shows Labour doing significantly better than in a Wales-specific poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales which the company released yesterday.
Unlike the Wales poll, from which it was projected that Labour would win back Gower and Vale of Clwyd from the Conservatives, the poll for The Times suggested that in addition to the 25 seats it held in the last Parliament, Labour could also win Gower, Cardiff North and Preseli Pembrokeshire.
Both Tory-held Vale of Clwyd and Plaid Cymru-held Carmarthen East & Dinefwr are described as “toss-up” seats, with the victor too close to call between the incumbent and Labour.
In a further indication that this election may defy past norms, the Electoral Reform Society has published research by BMG indicating that young people are just as engaged this time round as their elders.
With respondents interviewed in the aftermath of Wednesday’s leaders debate, when Theresa May did not turn up, 63% of Britons said they were interested in the election, with just as many 18-24 year olds interested as general voters. 30% of all voters said they felt well-informed about the election, with the figures for 18-24 year olds similar, at 25%, suggesting campaigns targeting young people have had some success. BMG polling also showed that 60% of Britons said they would “definitely” vote on June 8 or had already done so by post, while a further 12% identified as 8/9 out of 10 in terms of likelihood to vote. The figures suggest turnout could be in the mid to high 60s – similar to the 66% seen in 2015. While a lower figure of 50% of 18-24 year olds said they would definitely vote or had already done so, a further 15% ranked themselves as 8/9 out of 10 in terms of likelihood to vote – higher than the general average.
Darren Hughes, deputy chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: “These findings show that far from voters being bored by the election, they are highly switched on and interested. The public care about this vote, and look set to take part in large numbers. It’s encouraging to see that the idea that young people are apathetic is a myth – 18-24 year olds are just as engaged as the rest of the public, with nearly two thirds saying they are interested. Moreover, of those who say they are very likely to vote, the figures are very similar between 18-24 year olds and the rest of the public, suggesting the democratic generation gap may not be as significant as it has been in the past.”
If young people follow through in large numbers on their intention to vote, Theresa May could be in serious trouble.