Could wobbly May be handing power to campaigning Corbyn?
COLUMNIST
WHEN the election was called all those weeks ago, it seemed as though Labour had everything to lose and nothing to gain.
The polls predicted Conservative wins all over the place – even Bridgend and Cardiff West were likely to go Tory. Now things are so different. If the latest YouGov survey for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is right then Labour will win back Gower and the Vale of Clwyd on June 8.
Theresa May has gone from an assured leader looking likely to nail down a massive majority, to a weak and dithering one who could even lose the election.
It’s been a disastrous campaign for the Conservative Party and a successful one for Labour so far – Jeremy Corbyn’s clearly a man far more comfortable campaigning at rallies than performing pantomime politics in the Westminster snakepit.
The decision to call the snap election was a latest act of hubris from the party which brought us and lost the Brexit referendum (its 12-point plan for leaving the EU, as some helpfully pointed out on Twitter yesterday, includes nine points which are basically all reasons to remain in the EU).
The fact that the Conservative and Unionist Party cannot see that Brexit undermines both conservativism and Unionism all in one go underlines the party’s arrogance and ignorance.
But the election campaign has also proved that election campaigns themselves, as great bouts between ideas and ideals, are actually important. They can shape and reshape people’s opinions.
Who’d have thought Labour’s manifesto, containing within it popular ideas – one by one endorsed in the polls – would have been the starting point for the party’s surge?
The contrast between May and Corbyn’s fortunes is stark – her star falling so far, his rising. Yes, campaigns matter.
Initial wobbles about Corbyn’s leadership abilities among Labour voters have receded in the face of Mrs May’s calamitous campaign, where she’s gone from the image of strong and stable to that of weak and wobbly.
Yesterday it emerged that she won’t, this morning, appear on Woman’s Hour (the Radio 4 programme which hammered Jeremy Corbyn on his facts and figures behind Labour’s childcare proposals). After ducking out of the leaders’ debate she’s in danger of looking scared of scrutiny.
In fact, her public appearances so far have backed that up. Mrs May’s failure to provide straight answers to basic questions has been one of the features of the last five weeks.
Take, for example, a visit Plymouth this week.
Her encounter with the Plymouth Herald’s chief reporter, Sam Blackledge followed thus:
Sam Blackledge: “Two visits in six weeks to one of the country’s most marginal constituencies – is she getting worried?”
Theresa May: “I’m very clear that to this is a crucial election for this country.”
SB: “Plymouth is feeling the effects of military cuts. Will she guarantee to protect the city from further pain?”
TM: “I’m very clear that Plymouth has a proud record of connection with the armed forces.”
SB: “How will your Brexit plan make Plymouth better off?”
TM: “I think there is a better future ahead for Plymouth and for the whole of the UK.”
SB: “Will you promise to sort out our transport links?”
TM: “I’m very clear that connectivity is hugely important for Plymouth and the south-west generally.”
So that’s as clear as mud then. Yesterday, the Channel 4 reporter Michael Crick raised her reluctance to provide straight answers in a press conference with the PM.
Pressed on detail about Brexit, Mrs May has failed to provide the clarity she claims her leadership provides.
The public might not be cottoning on to the fact that Brexit will be a needless disaster – hard, soft, deal or no deal.
But as inflation rises, wages stagnate and growth stalls amid an ever growing public deficit and national debt it might be growing clear that the government’s economic plan hasn’t been working.
A Labour victory this time next week would still be a huge shock. But in an era of political earthquakes, anything’s possible, isn’t it?