Western Mail

So, just what we can read from the polls?

There are just days to go until the General Election but can opinion polls be trusted to reflect the true changing picture? Ruth Mosalski reports...

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There are just three days of campaignin­g left before Britain goes to the polls once more. Theresa May’s snap election takes place on Thursday when Britain will choose its Members of Parliament.

Polls have had a bad press in recent elections after calling the results incorrectl­y, but they continue to show a changing picture in politics.

The latest findings from YouGov’s modelling suggested a hung parliament, with the Conservati­ves on just 305 seats, down 25 from the 330 Mrs May’s party had when she called the election.

The Press Associatio­n have been compiling a “poll of polls” – a rolling seven-day average of published surveys – which put the Tories on 44% with Labour on 37%.

That’s the highest figure for Jeremy Corbyn’s party since the campaign began.

The Lib Dems were on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

When Theresa May stood on Downing Street and announced the snap election, her party had a massive lead in the opinion polls and many suggested that was why she had called the election.

People were talking about a landslide but her party has had some high-profile u-turns over care costs and tax plans.

Those changes haven’t seen a particular collapse in support for the Conservati­ves, but Labour has had a surge in support.

On the day the election was called, ICM carried out a snap poll. That gave the Conservati­ves a 21-point lead.

By the end of May, Labour had seen their poll ratings grow for the fifth week in a row.

Today, an ICM poll for the Guardian gave the Conservati­ves a lead of 11 percentage points.

Support for the Conservati­ves stood at 45% while Labour’s was at 34% but some polls have put the gap at just three points.

A poll, commission­ed by The Times, found the Conservati­ve lead had dropped with them on 42 points but Labour are close behind on 39. That same poll put the Lib Dems with just 7% of the vote share.

When the snap election was called, Lib Dem leader Tim Farron came out and said: “Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservati­ve majority”.

On April 18, the Lib Dems had 12% of the share according to YouGov’s survey of 1,727 adults.

But by June 3, ICM put the Lib Dems at 9%, ORB at 8% and 9% from YouGov showing they had failed to cement themselves as the opposition Tim Farron said they could be.

When the election was called, ComRes found Ukip had 9% support. By the end of May that had more than halved to 4% according to the same pollster.

In the first poll published after the election was called, Plaid were listed as on course for three seats with 13% support from across the nation.

That 13% for Plaid was the same as the last Barometer poll ITV/Cardiff University held in January. This election was seen as a crucial test for Plaid. They had the chance to exploit the low approval ratings for Labour and secure the votes of Wales’ proEU voters.

The Greens had made local election gains in May in areas where they also hope to make General Election gains.

Ipsos MORI published a poll on Friday which showed the Conservati­ves have a 5% lead.

Since becoming PM May has always had the support of the wider public, with more people saying they are satisfied with her performanc­e than dissatisfi­ed. But the latest poll from Ipsos MORI put her with a negative overall figure of -7% (43% satisfied, 50% dissatisfi­ed).

ComRes have also reported May’s first negative rating (-3%). Opinium said May has fallen to +6%.

An Ipsos MORI poll four days ago showed that she had also seen a fall in support from women and middleaged voters.

Corbyn’s rating has shot up and while he is still behind (with a figure of -11%) it’s up considerab­ly since the -41% rating he had in March.

The first poll published after Corbyn and May were questioned by a BBC studio audience found there was just one point between their two parties, and 36% of those asked said they were more likely to vote Labour.

Opinium also put Jeremy Corbyn up in recent days on -12%, up from -35% at the start of the campaign.

This election has turned into a twohorse race. The collapse of Ukip and longer ago the Lib Dems has meant voters have an almost US-style choice between two party leaders, one on the right and one on the left.

Adding together the figures from polls, you’ll see figures of between 70% or 80% supporting the Tories and Labour. No-one else has a look in on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that on Friday morning either May or Corbyn will be Prime Minister.

Labour is now projected to take seats from the Tories in the General Election, according to a poll published about the campaign in Wales.

The only seats that would change hands, calculated on what is known as a uniform national swing projection, would be the Gower and the Vale of Clwyd.

The huge Tory gains projected in the first polls of the campaign in Wales have been wiped out, according to the YouGov survey for ITV Wales and Cardiff University.

At one point, in the first Welsh poll which took place days after the snap election was called, the Conservati­ves looked on course to win a majority of Welsh seats.

Pollsters quizzed 1,029 people across Wales and 40% said they would vote Conservati­ve to 30% who said they would back Labour.

If the poll’s findings are repeated at the General Election on June 8, it would be the first time in more than a century that the Tories had won more than half of Wales’ parliament­ary seats.

Labour is now on course to take back two of the seats that the Conservati­ves won in 2015, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd.

The poll suggests that Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems are on course for “historical­ly bad election results”, according to Cardiff University Professor Roger Scully.

 ??  ?? > Britain goes to the polls on Thursday for the General Election
> Britain goes to the polls on Thursday for the General Election

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