The seats to watch as half of Wales is in the balance
Which constituencies could change hands after today’s election? Chief reporter Martin Shipton describes the Welsh results to look out for as the night progresses
CONVENTIONAL wisdom tells us that most seats are safe for one party or another, and that elections are decided in a relatively small number of marginal constituencies.
On this occasion, however, the polls have been so variable that a lot more seats could be described as marginal – a point that applies as much in Wales as in the rest of Britain.
The first all-Wales YouGov poll of the campaign immediately brought seats into play that in normal circumstances would have been seen as odds-on bankers for the parties that held them in the last Parliament. It gave the Conservatives a 10-point lead, with projections that on a uniform swing across Wales would see them pick up 10 seats from Labour to become the majority party in Wales for the first time since the 1850s, well before the democratic era in which all adults can vote.
On top of this, there are Labour-held seats that could be lost to Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats on a bad night. And there is a further crop of seats held by the Conservatives and by the Liberal Democrats that could change hands if things go badly wrong. Altogether, half of Wales’ 40 seats could potentially change hands. Labour-held seats Bridgend: This would be the first Labourheld seat to fall to the Conservatives on the basis of swing. In 2015 Madeleine Moon, who has been the MP since 2005, was just 1,927 votes ahead of the second-placed Tory. Bridgend is where Theresa May visited at the start of the campaign, and where she launched her slogan “Strong and stable leadership in the national interest”. University dean and former Welsh Woman of the Year Karen Robson is the Conservative candidate this time. Winning the seat would be of extra significance for the Tories, as it’s held at Assembly level by First Minister Carwyn Jones. Labour are worried.
Newport West: Held since 1987 by Paul Flynn, who at 82 remains a forensic inquisitor of ministers and officials. A past Backbencher of the Year, he was also a political pioneer in the use of social media. Last year, when many members of the Shadow Cabinet abandoned Jeremy Corbyn, he was drafted in as shadow secretary of state for Wales and was widely seen to have done a good holding job. In 2015 his majority over the Tory candidate was 3,510. This time he is up against Angela Jones-Evans, who holds a doctorate in marketing and works as a communications officer for Welsh Conservative MEP Kay Swinburne. Labour are worried.
Newport East: Held by Jessica Morden, a former general secretary of Welsh Labour, since 2005. In 2015 she had a majority of 4,705 over the Tory candidate. This time the Conservative candidate is Natasha Asghar, the daughter of South Wales East Tory AM Mohammad Asghar. Ms Asghar, who works for her father but also presents TV programmes on Asian channels, defected from Plaid Cymru at the same time he did in 2009. Labour not so worried.
Alyn & Deeside: Among a group of Labourheld seats in North East Wales which voted heavily for Brexit and where the party is vulnerable to the Conservatives because of the collapse of the Ukip vote and the assumption that most former Ukip voters will switch to the Tories. Mark Tami’s majority was 3,343 in 2015, a slight improvement on 2010, but he is undoubtedly at risk on this occasion. His Tory opponent is Laura Knightly, a legal secretary who until recently was a councillor in Conwy county borough. Labour are worried.
Clwyd South: Labour’s Susan Elan Jones held the seat in 2015 with a precarious majority over the Conservatives of just 2,402. An MP since 2010, she has described Jeremy Corbyn as “unelectable” and was a strong Remain supporter despite 60% of her constituents voting for Brexit. One of two Labour MPs to receive personal endorsements from former Plaid Cymru leader Lord Dafydd ElisThomas. Her Tory opponent is Brexit-voting Simon Baynes. Labour are worried.
Wrexham: Ian Lucas, a former solicitor, has held the seat for Labour since 2001. In 2015 his majority was just 1,831 over Tory candidate Andrew Atkinson, who is standing again and has high hopes of becoming the first candidate of his party to win since the seat was created in 1918. Labour are worried.
Delyn: David Hanson, a respected former Home Office Minister, won this seat in 1992 from the Conservatives and has managed to hold it despite some closeish calls ever since. His majority in 2015 was 2,930 over the Conservative candidate. This time he faces Matt