Britain in the balance as results of the General Election emerge
This is when we will get an idea of who will win the election, as well as the timings for constituencies in the UK. Victoria Jones and Dan Bloom report
TODAY polling stations open from 7am and close at 10pm. The first expected to declare is Houghton & Sunderland South at around 11pm, and results will come in until 5pm tomorrow.
In Wales, the first result expected is Wrexham at 1am, according to projections from returning officials – and it is a crucial battle.
Theresa May has been here twice during the election campaign as she focuses on Labour marginals.
There will be an early indication from the exit polls, which give an indication of which way the votes are leaning, at 10pm.
But, as we saw in the Brexit referendum, these can often be wrong.
It will only be early tomorrow morning that the result becomes more clear. Exactly when that is depends on how close the race is.
Officially it takes 326 seats for an overall majority in the House of Commons – the solid measure of victory.
In some years this happens in the early hours – but in 2015 it was at 1.34pm and in 2010 it didn’t happen at all (we got a coalition after days of back room talks). This is a rough guide to the night ■ 11pm: Sunderland races to be first Houghton & Sunderland South will want to keep its title of first seat to declare – announcing at just 10.48pm in 2015. Expect bizarre scenes of local youths in trainers flinging ballot boxes into a sports hall in their race to be the nation’s first.
Unless things are much, much worse than feared for Labour, Bridget Phillipson will retain the constituency. ■ Houghton & Sunderland South ■ Sunderland Central ■ 12pm: Make a coffee Labour is sure to pick up another early declaration in Washington & Sunderland West, while Tory former minister Justin Tomlinson would need a disaster to lose his 11,786 majority in Swindon North. ■ Washington & Sunderland West ■ Swindon North 1am: The first indications A string of early marginals will give an indication of which way the night is going.
In Wales, the big news here could come from Wrexham. The Tories have put a lot of effort into trying to persuade Labour voters here to switch sides. If we’re on course for a Conservative landslide, this is one of the seats that will turn blue.
If it is going to be a stellar night for Labour, it would need to claim Nuneaton (Warwickshire) to win the keys to Number 10. The Tories have a 4,882 majority.
The Vale of Clwyd could be much closer. The north Wales seat was won by the Conservatives by just 237 votes in 2015.
Darlington is another key battle. If Ukip voters leave the party to back the Tories, Labour’s Jenny Chapman could be in trouble. If two-thirds of Ukip voters back her Tory rival, her 3,158 majority is toast. ■ Wrexham ■ Vale of Clwyd ■ Arfon ■ 2am: Declarations begin to pile up. Tory Thurrock is a fascinating three-way marginal. A Ukip surge slashed the Conservative majority over Labour to just 536 last time. There were more than 15,000 Ukip votes, so if the party is sliding, this seat will show which way.
Amber Rudd may be the Home Secretary but she’s defending a smaller majority than many Tory big guns. Labour will still need a big swing, though, to overturn her 4,796 advantage in Hastings & Rye.
Labour has a 12,703 majority in Wales’ Blaenau Gwent, but there was a wobble last month when control of the council was lost amid an independent surge and there are fears that Plaid Cymru could capitalise today.
Declarations by now will be beginning to pile up. ■ Blaenau Gwent ■ Carmarthen East and Dinefwr ■ Ceredigion
■ 2.30am: By the time Jeremy Corbyn’s safe seat of Islington North declares, if things are really good – or really bad – he’ll be getting a good inkling of whether he gets to keep his other job, as Labour leader.
Ynys Mon is Labour’s most marginal seat in Wales, with Albert Owen clinging on by 229 votes against Plaid Cymru.
Interesting counts for the Lib Dems will be Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire. These are both held by the Tories but were once staunchly Lib Dem seats. ■ Brecon and Radnorshire ■ Dwyfor Meirionnydd ■ Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney ■ Montgomeryshire ■ Torfaen ■ Ynys Mon ■ 3am: News from Gower? This will be a very busy time for Welsh election-watchers. One of the most closely fought constituencies in Wales will be Gower.
The Tories took Gower in one of the election shocks of 2015 but Byron Davies only holds it with a slim majority of 27. Even if the Tories have a good night, this is the kind of seat that could defy the national trend.
By now, we should have a very clear idea of what kind of a night this is. But if the result is close, results like Gower could be crucial.
A challenge for Labour could also come in Newport West, and to a lesser extent Newport East. On a bad night for Labour a Tory landslide could turn one – or even both of these – blue. ■ Aberconwy ■ Alyn and Deeside ■ Aberavon ■ Caerphillly ■ Clwyd South ■ Clwyd West ■ Cynon Valley ■ Gower ■ Islwyn ■ Llanelli ■ Monmouth ■ Neath ■ Newport East ■ Newport West ■ Rhondda ■ Swansea East ■ Swansea West
■ 3.30am: What legacy will quitting Carswell leave for the Tories?
Outside Wales, Clacton should declare around now. It was Ukip’s first-ever general election victory but MP Douglas Carswell had a spectacular break-up with the party and quit Westminster. Has the spell of Farage been broken in this former Tory seat?
Equally unusual is Rochdale, where Simon Danczuk is standing as an independent after he was kicked out of Labour for sexts to a 17-year-old. His majority was 12,442. Will voters side with him or a red rosette?
■ Delyn ■ 4am: Cardiff results expected The Vale of Glamorgan is another seat that could swing. It has been held by Labour and the Tories, although Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns’ majority of 6,880 would only be vulnerable to a big swing to Labour.
What kind of night for the Lib Dems this will be in Wales will also be determined by Cardiff Central. Labour has a strong candidate in Jo Stevens but the Lib Dems have been working heavily to play the Brexit card in a constituency they held from 2005 until 2015.
If the “Lib Dem Fightback” is anywhere it should be here – or in former yellow seats like Bath, Colchester, Sutton & Cheam, Solihull and Yeovil, among 27 Lib Dem seats that went blue in 2015.
Tory big names David Davis, Philip Hammond, Michael Fallon and Boris Johnson should all keep their seats. ■ Cardiff West ■ Cardiff Central ■ Cardiff North ■ Cardiff South and Penarth ■ Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire ■ Pontypridd ■ Preseli Pembrokeshire ■ Vale of Glamorgan ■ Ogmore ■ 5am: Bridgend in focus? If Bridgend goes blue, where Labour’s Madeleine Moon has a 1,927 majority, it will have been a great night for the Tories.
Elsewhere, all eyes will be on Boston and Skegness, where Ukip leader Paul Nuttall is standing in the Brexitbacking seat where his party won the highest vote share (apart from Clacton) in 2015. If he loses badly, he could be ousted.
■ Bridgend ■ 5.30am: The return of the Tories? An often-forgotten quirk of election night is how many Labour seats (small urban areas) declare early, and Tory seats in the shires declare late.
It took until 5.44am for the Conservatives to overtake Labour in 2015, yet the party won by 98 seats. ■ 6am: and later There are still a lot of results to come in. But by now we should have a clear idea of whether one of the parties is on course to win a majority. If we’re on course for a hung parliament, it may take a lot longer for the next occupant of Number 10 to become clear.
Sadie Vidal (C) Cen Phillips (LD) Andrew Bennison (PC) Caroline Jones (UKIP) Electorate 49,891 2015: Lab maj 10,445 (33.13%) – Turnout 31,523 (63.27%) Kinnock (Lab) 15,416 (48.90%); Bush (UKIP) 4,971 (15.77%); Yi He (C) 3,742 (11.87%); Higgitt (PC) 3,663 (11.62%); Clarke (LD) 1,397 (4.43%); Beany (Ind) 1,137 (3.61%); Tier (Green) 711 (2.26%); Jordan (Soc Lab) 352 (1.12%); Herbert (TUSC) 134 (0.43%) Dan Lodge (Lab) James Gibson-Watt (LD) Kate Heneghan (PC) Peter Gilbert (UKIP) Electorate 56,010 2015: C maj 5,102 (12.73%) – Turnout 40,074 (73.79%) Davies (C) 16,453 (41.06%); Williams (LD) 11,351 (28.33%); Dorrance (Lab) 5,904 (14.73%); Thomas (UKIP) 3,338 (8.33%); Greaves (PC) 1,767 (4.41%); Carmichael (Green) 1,261 (3.15%) Karen Robson (C) Jonathan Pratt (LD) Rhys Watkins (PC) Alun Williams (UKIP) Isabel Robson (Ind) Electorate 62,185 2015: Lab maj 1,927 (4.88%) – Turnout 39,453 (65.76%) Moon (Lab) 14,624 (37.07%); Jenkins (C) 12,697 (32.18%); Jones (UKIP) 5,911 (14.98%); Radcliffe (PC) 2,784 (7.06%); Davies (LD) 1,648 (4.18%); Tallon-Morris (Ind) 763 (1.93%); White (Green) 736 (1.87%); David (TUSC) 118 (0.30%); Elston (Pirate) 106 (0.27%); Lloyd (NF) 66 (0.17%) Jane Pratt (C) Kay David (LD) Lindsay Whittle (PC) Andrew Creak (Green) Liz Wilks (UKIP) Electorate 64,381 2015: Lab maj 10,073 (25.01%) – Turnout 40,283 (64.15%) David (Lab) 17,864 (44.35%); Gould (UKIP) 7,791 (19.34%); Docherty (C) 6,683 (16.59%); Newton (PC) 5,895 (14.63%); Beddoe (Green) 937 (2.33%); Ayesh (LD) 935 (2.32%); Davies (TUSC) 178 (0.44%) Gregory Stafford (C) Eluned Parrott (LD) Mark Hooper (PC) Benjamin Smith (Green) Sarul-Islam Mohammed (UKIP) Electorate 59,288 2015: Lab maj 4,981 (12.89%) – Turnout 38,646 (67.26%) Stevens (Lab) 15,462 (40.01%); Willott (LD) 10,481 (27.12%); Hopkin (C) 5,674 (14.68%); Raybould (UKIP) 2,499 (6.47%); von Ruhland (Green) 2,461 (6.37%); Pollard (PC) 1,925 (4.98%); Williams (TUSC) 110 (0.28%); Hubert (Ind) 34 (0.09%) Turnout 51,151 (76.13%) Williams (C) 21,709 (42.44%); Williams (Lab) 19,572 (38.26%); Wilkinson (UKIP) 3,953 (7.73%); Walker Jones (PC) 2,301 (4.50%); Clark (LD) 1,953 (3.82%); Osner (Green) 1,254 (2.45%); Green (Ch P) 331 (0.65%); Jenkins (Change) 78 (0.15%) Bill Rees (C) Emma Sands (LD) Ian Titherington (PC) Anthony Slaughter (Green) Andrew Bevan (UKIP) Jeb Hedges (Pirate) Electorate 76,499 2015: Lab Co-op maj 7,453 (15.97%) – Turnout 46,667 (61.64%) Doughty (Lab Co-op) 19,966 (42.78%); Warman (C) 12,513 (26.81%); Rees-Evans (UKIP) 6,423 (13.76%); Foday (PC) 3,443 (7.38%); Howells (LD) 2,318 (4.97%); Slaughter (Green) 1,746 (3.74%); Saunders (TUSC) 258 (0.55%) Matt Smith (C) Alex Meredith (LD) Michael Deem (PC) Richard Lewis (UKIP) Electorate 67,221 2015: Lab maj 6,789 (15.50%) – Turnout 43,792 (65.60%) Brennan (Lab) 17,803 (40.65%); Taghdissian (C) 11,014 (25.15%); McEvoy (PC) 6,096 (13.92%); Morris (UKIP) 4,923 (11.24%); ap Tomos (LD) 2,069 (4.72%); Barker (Green) 1,704 (3.89%); Jones (TUSC) 183 (0.42%) Havard Hughes (C) David Darkin (Lab) Lesley Prosser (LD) Neil Hamilton (UKIP) Electorate 55,976 2015: PC maj 5,599 (14.21%) – Turnout 39,399 (70.67%) Edwards (PC) 15,140 (38.43%); Higgins (Lab) 9,541 (24.22%); Paul (C) 8,336 (21.16%); Woodward (UKIP) 4,363 (11.07%); Rice (Green) 1,091 (2.77%); Lloyd-Williams (LD) 928 (2.36%) Marc Tierney (Lab) Alistair Cameron (LD) Abi Thomas (PC) Phil Edwards (UKIP) Electorate 58,548 2015: C maj 6,054 (15.00%) – Turnout 40,350 (69.86%) Hart (C) 17,626 (43.68%); Evans (Lab) 11,572 (28.68%); Atkinson (UKIP) 4,698 (11.64%); Williams (PC) 4,201 (10.41%); Tapley (Green) 1,290 (3.20%); Runnett (LD) 963 (2.39%) Ruth Davis (C) Dinah Mulholland (Lab) Ben Lake (PC) Grenville Ham (Green) Tom Harrison (UKIP) the Crazed Sir Dudley (Loony) Electorate 52,889 2015: LD maj 3,067 (8.20%) – Turnout 37,416 (69.01%) Williams (LD) 13,414 (35.85%); Parker (PC) 10,347 (27.65%); Hensher (C) 4,123 (11.02%); James (UKIP) 3,829 (10.23%); Thomas (Lab) 3,615 (9.66%); Thompson (Green) 2,088 (5.58%) Simon Baynes (C) Bruce Roberts (LD) Christopher Allen (PC) Jeanette Bassford-Barton (UKIP) Electorate 54,341 2015: Lab maj 2,402 (6.85%) – Turnout 35,064 (63.76%) Jones (Lab) 13,051 (37.22%); Nicholls (C) 10,649 (30.37%); Jones (UKIP) 5,480 (15.63%); ap Gwynfor (PC) 3,620 (10.32%); Roberts (LD) 1,349 (3.85%); Rees (Green) 915 (2.61%) Gareth Thomas (Lab) Victor Babu (LD) Dilwyn Roberts (PC) Electorate 58,263 2015: C maj 6,730 (17.70%) – Turnout 38,028 (64.83%) Jones (C) 16,463 (43.29%); Thomas (Lab) 9,733 (25.59%); Nicholson (UKIP) 4,988 (13.12%); Jones (PC) 4,651 (12.23%); Lesiter-Burgess (LD) 1,387 (3.65%); English (Soc Lab) 612 (1.61%); Jepson (Above) 194 (0.51%) Keith Dewhurst (C) Nicola Knight (LD) Liz Walters (PC) Ian McLean (UKIP) Electorate 51,332 2015: Lab maj 9,406 (30.87%) – Turnout 30,472 (59.26%) Clwyd (Lab) 14,532 (47.69%); Griffiths (PC) 5,126 (16.82%); Rees-Evans (UKIP) 4,976 (16.33%); Dewhurst (C) 3,676 (12.06%); Jones (LD) 830 (2.72%); Matthews (Green) 799 (2.62%); Beggs (Soc Lab) 533 (1.75%) Matt Wright (C) Tom Rippeth (LD) Paul Rowlinson (PC) Electorate 54,116 2015: Lab maj 2,930 (7.82%) – Turnout 37,457 (69.83%) Hanson (Lab) 15,187 (40.55%); Isherwood (C) 12,257 (32.72%); Williams (UKIP) 6,150 (16.42%); Rowlinson (PC) 1,803 (4.81%); Rippeth (LD) 1,380 (3.68%); Roney (Green) 680 (1.82%) Neil Fairlamb (C) Mathew Norman (Lab) Stephen Churchman (LD) Frank Wykes (UKIP) Electorate 44,699 2015: PC maj 5,261 (18.20%) – Turnout 28,913 (65.13%) Roberts (PC) 11,811 (40.85%); Fairlamb (C) 6,550 (22.65%); Griffiths Clarke (Lab) 3,904 (13.50%); Gillibrand (UKIP) 3,126 (10.81%); Hughes (Ind) 1,388 (4.80%); Churchman (LD) 1,153 (3.99%); Fothergill (Green) 981 (3.39%) Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) Howard Evans (LD) Harri Roberts (PC) Ross Ford (UKIP) Jason Winstanley (Pirate) Electorate 62,163 2015: C maj 27 (0.06%) – Turnout 42,758 (69.17%) Davies (C) 15,862 (37.10%); Evans (Lab) 15,835 (37.03%); Beckett (UKIP) 4,773 (11.16%); Thomas (PC) 3,051 (7.14%); Sheehan (LD) 1,552 (3.63%); Marshall (Green) 1,161 (2.72%); Von Claptrap (Loony) 253 (0.59%); Roberts (Ind) 168 (0.39%); Evans (TUSC) 103 (0.24%) Dan Thomas (C) Matthew Kidner (LD) Darren Jones (PC) Joe Smyth (UKIP) Electorate 56,256 2015: Lab Co-op maj 10,404 (29.39%) – Turnout 35,401 (64.28%) Evans (Lab Co-op) 17,336 (48.97%); Smyth (UKIP) 6,932 (19.58%); Jones (C) 5,366 (15.16%); Ackerman (PC) 3,794 (10.72%); D’Cruz (LD) 950 (2.68%); Varley (Green) 659 (1.86%); Von Magpie (Loony) 213 (0.60%); Rawcliffe (TUSC) 151 (0.43%) Stephen Davies (C) Rory Daniels (LD) Mari Arthur (PC)