Why history may decide when Carwyn moves on
Chief reporter Martin Shipton considers the latest indications that Carwyn Jones may be intending to stand down in this Assembly term, and wonders how Welsh Labour will fare without him...
FIRST Minister Carwyn Jones is renting a flat in Cardiff and his family home in Bridgend is up for sale amid speculation that he will be stepping down as First Minister during the current National Assembly term.
A number of Welsh Labour sources have told me that party members are openly speculating about who might succeed him if and when he steps down.
The current five-year Assembly term ends in May 2021, by which time Mr Jones would have been First Minister for nearly 11 and a half years. Many people in Welsh Labour have assumed that he will step down after around 10 years, giving his successor time to establish themselves before the next election.
Confirming that in recent months Mr Jones has rented a flat in Cardiff, a spokesman for him told me: “The First Minister spends a substantial amount of time in Cardiff carrying out official duties. While he and his family continue to live in Bridgend, a small rented property in Cardiff, which is funded personally, helps balance the demands of family life with governing Wales.”
A source close to the First Minister confirmed that Mr Jones’ family home in Bridgend, which he shares with his wife Lisa and their two children, had been up for sale for some time, but had not so far been sold and was not under offer.
Asked whether Mr Jones would be moving his family home to Cardiff once the house in Bridgend was sold, the source would neither confirm the suggestion not deny it.
When it was put to the source that it would be odd if Mr Jones sought re-election to his Bridgend seat in 2021 if he was living in Cardiff, the source responded: “Not at all. He’s very well-known in Bridgend and has lived there for many years. Before being elected as an AM in 1999, he had been on Bridgend council. I don’t think most people would be bothered if he moved 20 miles down the road.” The source added: “The First Minister has been clear that he has no plans to stand down any time soon. Claims to the contrary are entirely fictional.”
When Mr Jones does stand down, it has long been speculated that the two rivals in the ensuing Welsh Labour leadership election would be Health Secretary Vaughan Gething, the AM for Cardiff South and Penarth, and Economy Secretary Ken Skates, who represents Clwyd South.
However, a number of other Labour AMs could potentially put themselves forward, including Baroness Eluned Morgan, a former MEP who was elected last year as a regional AM for Mid & West Wales, and Huw Irranca-Davies, a former UK Government Minister who switched last year from being MP for Ogmore to being AM for the same constituency.
Another Welsh Labour source told me: “It’s entirely in line with expectations that Carwyn would be standing down as First Minister after around 10 years. In the past, he’s given that kind of timescale himself. But while there is obviously talk about who may succeed him, no-one is organising any kind of campaign behind the scenes. It’s a bit premature for that.”
Nevertheless, it would be foolhardy to assume that Mr Jones intends carrying on beyond 2019.
Last autumn Leighton Andrews, the former Minister who was Mr Jones’ campaign manager when he stood for the Welsh leadership in 2009, urged the First Minister not to contemplate giving up his post.
At that time Mr Andrews was concerned at the prospect of a Corbynista taking charge in Wales. Now that everyone in the Labour Party is a Corbynista, such concern presumably no longer applies, but the point is that someone close to Mr Jones like Mr Andrews would know how long the First Minister intended to stay around.
However one judges Mr Jones’ performance as First Minister, there is little doubt that in practical terms he has provided more strong and stable leadership than Theresa May. That may be damning with faint praise, but it should be said nevertheless.
In the two National Assembly elections he has fought as Welsh Labour leader, the party has won 30 and 29 seats respectively: a pretty remarkable achievement in the political contexts they were fought.
There’s no doubt that Welsh Labour regards Mr Jones as an asset: in the general election campaign his persona was to the fore. Indeed, the party sought to create something of a personality cult around him at the beginning of the campaign, when they thought Jeremy Corbyn was a vote loser.
Things developed differently, but there’s precious little electoral evidence to demonstrate that Carwyn Jones remains anything but a positive for his party.
For the moment, with the situation at Westminster so volatile and unpredictable, it makes sense for him to stay on as First Minister. Also, having only recently turned 50 it might seem odd for him to contemplate leaving a job he clearly enjoys doing.
He will, however, be aware of the recent historical precedents which suggest that voters tend to tire of leaders after around a decade. Nevertheless, Mr Jones’ standing remains high within his party, and when he chooses to stand down is a matter for him alone.