Uncertainty is now the only certainty

BANK of England Governor Mark Carney’s chilly assessment of the economy will have chimed with how people across Wales and the UK feel about their personal economic prospects.

He highlighted falling wage growth and uncertainty about the impact of Brexit in a speech that sent the pound falling.

Ahead of today’s Queen’s Speech, Theresa May has underscored her commitment to making Brexit happen. It is far from clear what arrangements will define Britain’s relationship with the EU and the rest of the world when Brexit Day comes in 2019 – the only guarantee is that the status quo will not remain.

However, there is a growing confidence among people in different parties to push for a transitional arrangement which would deliver as close to the present situation as possible.

First Minister Carwyn Jones wants his party to puts its weight behind the drive for the UK to leave the EU but remain party of the European Economic Area – the internal market which includes non-EU member Norway. This has also been suggested by former Tory leader William Hague as a staging post.

The idea is that it would buy time for a long-term deal to be thrashed out and minimise disruption to the economy. Mrs May has pledged to lead with “humility” but she may lack the political security to consider an idea which would rile her right-wingers.

An emboldened Chancellor Philip Hammond used his Mansion House speech to push for a Brexit which will not make it harder for the UK to trade or for top talent to come to these shores.

He said that Brexit must prioritise British jobs and prosperity. And he also sought to leave his audience in no doubt that he does not lead a cloistered existence in the Treasury.

Until recently he was tipped to be sacked but now there is no prospect of Theresa May evicting him from No.11.

Mr Hammond may not have been given a starring role in the election campaign but he described what he encountered on the campaign trail.

He said he had “hundreds of conversations reflecting the challenges and issues that people face in their daily lives: fears about job security; about wage levels; the need for good schools for their children; a well-functioning health service; decent care for elderly relatives; or access to the housing market.”

The Chancellor also acknowledged that “Britain is weary after seven years of hard slog repairing the damage of the great recession”.

Historians will debate whether the hard medicine of austerity was essential but the deficit is far from tackled and George Osborne’s original targets have been repeatedly revised back.

The public will listen with scepticism when they hear any politician pledge they can deliver a successful Brexit. No leader can control the economic tides, and it is inevitable that setting out on this journey entails risk and uncertainty. The Western Mail newspaper is published by Media Wales a subsidiary company of Trinity Mirror PLC, which is a member of IPSO, the Independent Press Standards Organisation. The entire contents of The Western Mail are the copyright of Media Wales Ltd. It is an offence to copy any of its contents in any way without the company’s permission. If you require a licence to copy parts of it in any way or form, write to the Head of Finance at Six Park Street. The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in 2014 was 78.5%