Defeat in the big battle of Wellington and the Lions’ hopes of a series victory will get blown away
DOING this job has taken me to some of the great cities of the world – Tokyo, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, Chicago, Melbourne, Toronto.
But my current location of Wellington – at the south-western tip of New Zealand’s North Island – has to be up there as one of the best places I’ve visited while covering rugby.
It was ranked the 12th most-liveable city in the world in a survey carried out in 2014 and you can see why. It is a capital place in every sense of the word.
There is something of the feel of Melbourne in terms of its mix of the old and the new, with colonial-style buildings dating back to the early years of the last century standing shoulder-to-shoulder with shiny high-rise structures.
There’s also the scenery, be it Wellington Harbour or the various bays looking out onto the Cook Strait, while a trip up into the hills which surround the city provides stunning views of the rugged coastline and out to sea.
As well as being the actual capital and the seat of government, it’s also known as the cultural capital of New Zealand, being home to the national museum and library, plus a thriving arts and entertainment scene.
And, of course, it also has the only Welsh bar in the southern hemisphere!
Sited in a converted toilet block on a traffic island – don’t let that put you off – the Welsh Dragon Bar has been run for the last 13 years by Mike and Joanna Howard, who hail from Cwmbwrla and Langland respectively in Swansea.
It’s a real home from home, with Welsh flags draped across the ceiling and pictures of the likes of Gerald Davies, Bryn Terfel and Kelly Jones on the walls, while Max Boyce, Tom Jones and The Stereophonics are on repeat on the sound system.
As you can imagine, it has become a real gathering point for Welsh fans over here for the Lions games against the Hurricanes and the All Blacks this week.
Whether it will be a place of celebration tonight, following the series-defining second Test, remains to be seen.
This city was named in honour of Arthur Wellesley, the first Duke of Wellington and victor of the Battle of Waterloo. Now it’s time for the battle of Westpac.
Wellington is official the world’s windiest city, with an average wind speed of over 16 miles on hour.
It’s actually been quite calm this week and hardly a ripple out on the harbour, but you do sense that’s been the calm before the storm in more ways than one.
The weather is set to turn, with heavy rain forecast for today and the wind set to get up to 26 miles an hour.
You also have the sense of a storm brewing in terms of the rugby.
In the wake of the Lions’ 30-15 first Test defeat in Auckland, all the talk from coach Warren Gatland has been about the need for more aggression and more physicality from his troops and fighting fire with fire.
You’ve also had players acknowledging there is wounded pride in the camp, with no-one liking to be dominated physically, which is what happened at Eden Park.
So, there are scores to settle and records to be set straight.
There has been so much talk about the collisions this week and how the Lions lost them last Saturday.
As a result, the first few in this rematch could attract the attention of the seismologists who closely monitor for any signs of quakes over here. The ground will shake. Aside from the quest for revenge and the desire to restore pride, there’s also the fact this is a do-or-die encounter, with another defeat meaning the series is lost for the Lions.
And, of course, there’s the whole backdrop of the spat between the opposing coaches in the wake of Gatland calling for more protection for scrum-half Conor Murray after his targeting in the first Test.
That saw All Blacks boss Steve Hansen label his fellow Kiwi as “desperate” and “predictable”, while the New Zealand Herald once again mocked up Gatland as a clown on their front page.
It all makes for a combustible cocktail and it’s a fair bet that the Westpac will be no place for the faint -hearted on Saturday evening.
You saw how the midweek men responded on Tuesday night against the Hurricanes, with a real physical edge to a game which was littered with scuffles and skirmishes.
Those guys weren’t even involved at Eden Park, so can you imagine how pumped up the Test group will be.
As one Welsh member of the 23 said to me when I bumped into him yesterday: “We’ve just got to front up mate.”
Pride is on the line and so is the series.
So, as the wind gets up, it will be a case of hold on to your hats in every sense.
The tricky balancing act for the Lions is bringing more aggression and physicality, while not overstepping the mark and transgressing.
During this tour, there has been a clear correlation between discipline and results.
When they have kept the penalty count in single figures, they have tended to win. When they’ve failed to do that, they have tended to lose.
So, hard – very hard – but fair will be the mantra.
Setting that example and setting the tone will be tour captain Sam Warburton, who replaces Peter O’Mahony both as blindside and skipper.
Listening to Warburton speaking so well to the massed media, it is clear just how big a moment this is in his career.
He has achieved most things in the game, but the one team he has never beaten are the All Blacks.
To do that now, while leading the Lions, in New Zealand... well, it doesn’t get much better than that.
Warburton is well aware of the pivotal role he has to play if he is to taste that first victory over the world champions.
The Cardiff Blues flanker has been brought in to do a specific job in response to what happened in Auckland.
He has to get off the line hard and
win those defensive collisions and, crucially, he has to provide a greater physical presence at the breakdown, where the Lions simply have to be more effective and more competitive.
As Gatland acknowledges, at his best, Warburton is as good as any player in the world at getting on the ball at the breakdown, either creating turnovers, winning penalties or slowing the ball down.
The question is how close is he to being back at his best?
He’s been playing catch-up on this trip having come out here not having played a game in two months due to knee ligament damage, while a rolled ankle sustained in the tour opener set him back again.
But you sensed listening to him in the press conference that he now feels he is ready. He has shaken off the cobwebs and is primed for one of the games of his life.
He points to the fact he has actually had more match-time out here than he did before the second Lions Test against the Wallabies four years ago. And in that Melbourne match-up, he delivered one of the performances of his career. So, play it again Sam.
The other change up front sees Maro Itoje replacing his Saracens team-mate George Kruis at lock and he will provide additional pressure on the ball at the breakdown as well as youthful dynamism around the park.
He will be partnered in the second row by Alun Wyn Jones, who shouldn’t have to prove anything after 117 Test caps, a couple of Grand Slams and skippering the last lot of Lions to a series triumph.
But Jones will doubtless be determined to provide a response to those who have questioned his position in the team, while, more importantly, wanting to redress the balance both personally and collectively from last weekend’s physical besting.
He is a man who has always worn his heart on his sleeve out on the rugby pitch and you can imagine he will be revved up like never before for this one. Expect full-on warrior mode.
If the likes of Warburton, Itoje and Jones, along with the rest of the pack, can go toe-to-oe with the All Blacks this time and slow down their ball, then we will have a game on our hands.
That’s because there is certainly a real attacking threat behind.
It’s not what you would call a standard Gatland back-line.
We’ve already seen him move away from what we have been used to back home by selecting Liam Williams at 15.
Welsh public and pundits alike have consistently called for ‘Sanjay’ to be utilised at full-back, where his counter-attacking is at its most thrillingly threatening.
But Gatland and Rob Howley have equally consistently maintained he is a wing, with that stance being reiterated just a week or so ago.
Yet come the Test series, who there’s at full-back but Williams!
And now, this week, we have seen another move away from the norm.
For the best part of a decade, Gatland has based much of his gameplan around a big, ball-carrying inside centre who can get over the gain-line and set things in motion.
It was Jamie Roberts for years, now on this tour it has been Ben Te’o, who has been highly effective in terms of getting behind the opposition with ball in hand and thumping them down in the tackle.
And yet, come arguably the biggest game of his coaching career, Gatland has changed tack and gone for a physically-slighter dual-playmaking option at 10-12 in the shape of Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell, with Te’o dropped to the bench.
It’s something we’ve hardly ever seen from Gatland before and he has certainly been a bit of a changed man on his return to his homeland.
Te’o does seem to have paid for the price for ignoring an overlap at a pivotal point of the first Test and so we now have the decision-making and distribution of Sexton and Farrell, who will also have a big role to play along with Murray in a threepronged kicking strategy.
Whether this radical departure works for Gatland remains to be seen. It’s questionable whether it’s the right move given the impending weather conditions and it’s a fair bet Sonny Bill Williams will be licking his lips.
He certainly knew Te’o was there last week and he will really fancy his chances against smaller opponents.
Stopping Sonny Bill could now prove a real issue, while heaven knows what Hansen has in store for us this week, given how many different ways his All Blacks can play.
But we are where we are, the teams are picked and the day of destiny looms.
It’s time to see whose capital idea will prove the most cunning plan.