Playmakers hold fate of Lions in their hands

RUGBY SENSE FROM THE S4C PUNDIT

I sincerely hope that will be carried over on his return to Wales. Seeing Wales play a little more like the end-of-season Scarlets would signal a real change, but as this tour has proved, you can only play that way if you get selection right.

When you look at the four tries the Lions have scored against New Zealand, three of them have come directly as a consequence of the new brand of rugby. This has to be the future for Wales too.

For once it is Steve Hansen and his team who are under pressure. He has a country full of talent to choose from, but he has precious little experience upon which to rely.

The last time that New Zealand lost, they responded in quite brutal fashion. The performance in Dublin after the defeat in Chicago was a mixture of anger and efficiency. There were some vicious tackles in that game which had a hint of retribution about them.

They are hurt again and their dominance has been wounded. Discipline will be at the forefront of Hansen’s mind during the week’s build-up.

The other worry for him was the startling lack of leadership and composure shown by his backs in the final minutes of the second Test.

Usually we can rely on the Blacks to achieve sheer perfection in the closing seconds of a match, especially if they need a score to win.

Dramatic comebacks are their hallmark, yet without the rugby nous and belief of Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith, the class of 2017 made some poor choices and basic mistakes.

New Zealand still have a backline brimming with talent, but too many of them are unproven at this level for there not to be a significant amount of anxiety.

I suspect that Hansen will therefore entrust this match to his pack. Their front eight have been a fearful collective in years gone by and may prove the men to ride to the rescue again.

They were dominant in the first Test and held their own with a man down in Wellington. Many in Europe like to say that the advent of Super Rugby has emasculated All Black forwards, but there has been precious little evidence of that against the Lions.

To supplement that, Hansen will also look to use the power of Ngani Laumape in midfield to punch away at the gainline. He took flat passes directly from the scrum in Wellington, which caused significant stress to the Lions defence.

No doubt his power will be used again, but the All Blacks seldom do the same thing twice.

Finally, if it is close in the final minutes, this will be decided by kickers. One could argue that it already has been.

Beauden Barrett’s terrible misses from point-blank range is partly why there is a decider. How will his nerve fare if he has a testing 40 yarder in the first few minutes, let alone one near the end?

It has been a strange tour. In the days after the first Test, there was little to suggest that the Lions could compete with the All Blacks.

Yet here we are; one match, one try and one moment away from rugby folklore.

Statistically, New Zealand rarely lose at home. They seldom lose two in succession and they almost never lose at Eden Park. But this is not the formidable New Zealand of years gone by. They are human and they can be beaten.

I am a man of logic and reason, though, and I think the All Blacks will be too strong up front, I think they will win by less than a score.

But as Gatland has proven before, he does have the knack of increasing his team’s intensity as the weeks go on... and now we reach the final match.

Former Wales captain Gwyn Jones is a member of S4C’s presentation team for the 2017 British and Irish Lions tour to New Zealand. Catch extended highlights of the deciding third test between the All Blacks and the Lions. Coverage starts at 6.30pm on Saturday evening. English subtitles available.