Why Carwyn and Nicola are a potent political double act
COLUMNIST
CARWYN Jones and Nicola Sturgeon have emerged as one of the most potent double-acts in UK politics.
The Welsh and Scottish first ministers are more than willing to join forces in an attempt to influence the shape of post-Brexit Britain and win cash for their nations.
The two issued a joint statement this month condemning the UK Government’s Brexit Repeal Bill as a “naked power-grab” and an “attack on the founding principles of devolution”.
Since then, the two governments have launched a formal dispute resolution process in a bid to win £1.67bn for Wales and £2.9bn for Scotland in the wake of the Conservatives’ £1bn deal with the DUP to keep the party in power.
Here are reasons why Mr Jones and Ms Sturgeon are working together...
Each wants to stop a ‘made in England’ Brexit...
The two first ministers are strong pro-Europeans who are alarmed at what could happen to their nations’ economies if the UK leaves the EU without a deal securing unfettered access to the single market.
Not only do they want to shape the negotiations, they are adamant that powers held today by Brussels in areas such as agriculture and fisheries should be returned to AMs and MSPs after Brexit and not held by MPs.
They are also unequivocal that Westminster ministers should not impose a replacement for the Common Agricultural Policy on the whole of the UK.
This month Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre accused the UK government of “extraordinary behaviour” towards the Welsh and Scottish administrations, saying: “They have just been treated extremely poorly by the UK level. They are both being treated with what appears to be disdain or at least a lack of seriousness from the UK level.”
A sense of shared grievance will only make it easier for the Welsh Labour and SNP leaders to work together.
They are both angered by the Tory-DUP deal...
The DUP won £1bn for Northern Ireland in return for propping up Theresa May’s Government. This has not gone down well with the Welsh and Scottish governments.
Ms Sturgeon condemned it as a “grubby, shameless deal” while Mr Jones said it was a “straight bung to keep a weak prime minister and a faltering government in office”.
Each leader has been at the heart of long and complex campaigns to secure new powers for their governments but the DUP has demonstrated that major prizes can be won at high speed in an exercise of pure political leverage.
The two administrations’ attempt to win a total for £4.57bn for their nations is unlikely to be successful but it shows the level of unhappiness in Cardiff and Edinburgh.
Each may soon lead their legislatures in voting against Brexit...
Unless there are major changes to the Repeal Bill it is hard to see how either Mr Jones or Ms Sturgeon can recommend AMs and MSPs grant consent for the legislation that will transfer EU law onto the UK statute book and give UK ministers the power to makes potentially thousands of changes.
The UK Parliament could press ahead and legislate anyway but this would trigger a constitutional showdown and shred goodwill between Westminster and the devolved legislatures.
Both Mr Jones and Ms Sturgeon will know their time in power could be defined by the leadership they provide in the run-up to Brexit. It makes sense for them to cooperate strategically on areas of common concern and interest. Carwyn and Nicola both want the UK to fundamentally change...
Mr Jones does not share Ms Sturgeon’s desire to lead her nation out of the UK but each wants radical change to how the UK operates.
The Welsh First Minister is a passionate devolutionist who has talked up the benefits of a move to a federal model for the UK and warned that the “days of parliamentary sovereignty are numbered”.
He may be a unionist but he is no defender of the status quo.
Welsh Labour is now stronger than Scottish Labour...
One factor that might have dissuaded a Welsh Labour leader in the past from working so closely with an SNP leader is the depth of antipathy that has traditionally existed between Scottish Labour and Ms Sturgeon’s party.
Labour was once a mighty force in Scotland but today the party has just seven of 59 MPs and 23 of the 129 MSPs.
In the days when Labour MPs included such mighty beasts as Gordon Brown, John Reid, Alistair Darling and Robin Cook, it’s possible a Welsh Labour politician might have thought twice before issuing a joint statement with an SNP counterpart. If Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood was First Minister in Wales, Welsh Labour AMs might well bristle if a Scottish Labour First Minister collaborated publicly with her.
The urgency of Brexit has changed the political equation and Mr Jones shows no reluctance to work with Ms Sturgeon in a bid to force a Conservative Government in Westminster to change tack.
As Prof Jones put it: “I think the instinct of the Welsh Government is not to go into a big Mexican standoff with the UK Government on this stuff but because the UK government has basically given nothing, Carwyn Jones is in a position where he either puts up or shuts up.”
There is no longer the imminent prospect of a second independence referendum...
Ms Sturgeon’s party lost 21 seats in the June election. She has since “reset” plans for another referendum and a vote ahead of Brexit is not expected. This makes it easier for Mr Jones – who saw his party gain three seats from the Conservatives – to work with her without being accused of helping the SNP dismantle the union.
Mr Jones sounds less worried about the SNP than Conservative supporters of a harder form of Brexit, whom he describes as “nationalists in London”. Neither has been an MP... This is yet another reason why they may find each other convivial political partners.
Unlike the first generation of first ministers, neither Mr Jones, 50, nor Ms Sturgeon, 47, has been an MP and their view of Britain and the world has not been shaped by hours spent on the green benches of the Commons. They were members of the new legislatures from day one of devolution and each has been at the heart of their nation’s journey towards greater autonomy.
The duo may have differing ideas about where that journey should end but they each abhor the idea of a hard Brexit and are prepared to fight to defend devolution. This relationship could shape the future of the UK.