AWelsh Labour split would change the face of UK politics
COLUMNIST
IDON’T know how former Education Minister Leighton Andrews celebrates Bonfire Night, but I can imagine him launching a firework only slightly smaller than a Scud missile from his back garden that will fill the sky with kaleidoscopic colours and unleash a bang that can be heard on the summit of Snowdon.
He took to the airwaves this week and floated the idea that if the UK Labour party backs a hard Brexit, the Welsh party should consider splitting off.
The former Rhondda AM was incensed by an argument put forward by Labour Shadow International Trade Secretary Barry Gardiner that the UK should leave the single market and the customs union. He took to Twitter to call him a “plonker” and on his own website he said that if the Parliamentary Labour Party will not stand up to Jeremy Corbyn and Mr Gardiner “then Welsh Labour should split from UK Labour”.
This would be a momentous moment in UK politics and the history of the Labour party. It could give Welsh Labour MPs unprecedented power to strike deals both with UK party and the Government – or it could hasten the disintegration of one of the world’s most influential parties.
Here are the possible consequences of a split. 1. Welsh Labour MPs could gain real clout in negotiations. The DUP has demonstrated the power that a party with just 10 MPs can wield. In return for keeping Theresa May’s administration in government they have won £1bn for Northern Ireland – cash that will go towards the health, roads, broadband and schools.
It is unthinkable that a Welsh Labour party would strike a similar deal to keep the Conservatives in power but it demonstrates the influence that a cluster of MPs can have in a parliament where no party has an overall majority. If all of Wales’ Labour MPs joined the new grouping it would be the fourth biggest in the Commons with 29 members, just behind the SNP (35) and considerably bigger than the Liberal Democrats (12).
A Welsh Labour party could have real leverage in negotiations with a UK party, which would become a de facto English party if the seven Scottish Labour MPs also split off.
The Leader of the Opposition would need to agree a common position with Labour MPs from Scotland and Wales in order to stand a chance of defeating the Government (or potentially forming one).
In return for backing UK Labour on England-only legislation such as health and education, Welsh MPs could demand much greater influence on non-devolved subjects such as Brexit, welfare and the economy.
They could also present clear demands on Welsh devolution and shape the constitutional agenda.
This doesn’t have to be a recipe for the type of conflict that turns off the electorate. In Germany, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) not only dominates local politics but at the national level for years it has shared power with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), today led by Angela Merkel.
Together, they have dominated postwar German politics. 2. It could all go very wrong. There are many nightmare scenarios. One is that the split would be so acrimonious that UK Labour and Welsh Labour candidates would stand against each other in Westminster and Assembly elections, cutting into the left-of-centre vote and allowing rival parties to seize seats.
Welsh Labour has excelled at putting forward a united front at a time when divisions in the UK party have been on full and glaring display. Such discipline could crumble over the question of splitting off.
This could unleash a furious battle with some seeing breaking away as a betrayal of the core principle of solidarity that could only help the Conservatives.
If the party in Wales did go its own way, a battle for its soul could begin, with those seeking the fullest possible cooperation with English Labour MPs competing with those who want the most distinctive Welsh policy agenda; Corbynistas could wrestle with centrists and further splits could loom on the horizon. These would be among the worst possible conditions in which to hold a leadership contest.
A further fear will be that Ukip’s fortunes in Wales would be revived if the split is seen as a bid to ensure the UK – as First Minister Carwyn Jones has recommended – follows Norway’s example and remains a participant in the single market. A majority of the Welsh electorate backed Brexit and Welsh Labour could take a hammering in its former industrial heartlands if it is portrayed as the party of the “remoaners”.
Plaid Cymru would also swoop to exploit Labour splits and win over left-leaning voters. “Look,” they would argue. “For decades we’ve championed Welsh values in Parliament.
“If you want to send a left-leaning Welsh party to Westminster to negotiate a progressive partnership with the Labour leadership, give us that job.” 3. It would challenge the Tories to have a more autonomous party in Wales. The Conservatives lost three seats in Wales to Labour in June’s election.
In the aftermath, Andrew RT Davies, who leads the Tory AMs in the Assembly, described the need “to be able to make key political decisions here in Wales and have a designated leader here in Wales, similar to what Labour formalised back in March”.
In the 2015 election the Welsh and UK Conservative manifestos appeared to make subtly different commitments concerning funding for Wales. Mr Davies said he hadn’t “read the London one because I’m not interested in the London one”.
The Conservatives have survived through the centuries thanks to a remarkable ability to adapt to upheavals in society. If the party concludes the surest way to secure the future of the UK and the party is to embrace a federal future then it could drive the next chapter of change.
Labour and Tory MPs have all summer to contemplate the future.