History on their side as Bluebirds aim for a flying start
ACCORDING to former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli there are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. Or so the old adage goes. We know this can be true in football, with so much data often belying the complexities of the game. And yet the modern footballing world puts a great deal of faith in stats.
If you’re a Cardiff City fan, however, there are certain statistics that give real hope for the season ahead, not that excitable Bluebirds fans need much more cause for optimism right now.
The presence of Neil Warnock and seven smart summer signings has already done that.
But the Bluebirds’ impressive record on the opening day of the season over the past decade should only add to the increasing optimism.
New research by Bookmakers.tv, analysing how each of the Football League’s 92 clubs have fared on the opening day of the campaign since 2007/08, shows the Bluebirds tend to get off to a fast start.
It looked back at Cardiff’s last 10 opening games and noted that the Bluebirds had only lost twice: 2-0 away at West Ham United (in 2013/14, their only Premier League season) and 1-0 at home to Stoke City back in 2007/08.
Otherwise, it has been a tale of success for the Bluebirds on the season’s first day, unbeaten in eight of their last 10.
Cardiff have won four and drawn four giving them an opening day record that is only bettered by three clubs in the Championship this season, Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich Town and Derby County. They are 24th out of the 92 EFL clubs included in the study.
All the more reason for Bluebirds to feel hopeful then — though Warnock will be keen to break the run of three consecutive draws on the opening day of Cardiff’s past three campaigns.
Under Paul Trollope, they should have beaten Birmingham City this time last year, with Frederic Gounongbe’s glaring miss the stand-out moment of their 0-0 draw at St Andrews.
The year before, the Bluebirds secured a 1-1 draw at home to Fulham. While in 2014/15, it was a 1-1 draw against Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park that set a forgettable campaign off in tepid style.
You actually have to go back to 2012/13 when Cardiff beat Huddersfield Town 1-0 to find the Bluebirds’ last opening day victory.
But that was certainly a useful one, setting Malky Mackay’s troops en route to the Championship title and promotion to the Premier League.
How Warnock would love to emulate that with a victory at former club Burton Albion this weekend to kickstart the season.
Cardiff’s other opening day victories in the past decade came at West Ham in 2011/12 (a 1-0 victory secured by Kenny Miller’s stoppage time striker); at home to Scunthorpe in 2009/10 when Michael Chopra, Jay Bothroyd and Peter Whittingham were on target; and at home to Southampton in 2008/09 when another late goal by Roger Johnson clinched the points. Under Dave Jones, they tended to do well at the outset of the season.
This time around, with the Bluebirds facing relatively modest opposition — at least on paper — in Burton on Saturday, Warnock will be confident of extending their impressive opening day record. Tough games against Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers lie around the corner, making the clash at the Pirelli Stadium all the more vital.
Cardiff have already announced they’ve sold out their away allocation for the game.
So despite the capacity of just under 7,000 in East Staffordshire it should be a rip-roaring atmosphere in which the Bluebirds begin their Championship journey for 2017/18.
A win would be the icing on the cake.