Ambitions dashed as electrified line plan derailed
AS we sat in Rhodes in sunshine of 34 degrees my mobile phone rang thwarting two ambitions – mine to lie by the pool and Swansea to get an electrified main line railway.
The calls from BBC Cymru Wales, the Western Mail and a personal call from Mr Alun Cairns MP, the Secretary of State, all had the same story.
There has been much speculation for several years on the likelihood, or otherwise, of South Wales Mainline (SWML) electrification.
The initial plan was to electrify to Bristol in one tranche and later to south Wales. But the latter was unlikely unless the wiring was incrementally erected.
In 2011 the estimated benefit cost ratio (BCR) to Bristol and Swansea were both above HM Treasury’s base acceptance rate of 2% and when Valley Lines was included reached over 4%.
However the cost estimates were based on previous average costs and the more detailed recent analysis showed large cost increases, bridge reconstruction in particular, west of Cardiff.
There has been a largely negative reaction to the news. From an economic perception viewpoint there is justifiable disappointment that following a £1bn plus City Deal for the Swansea Bay City Region we could have had a £500m electrification project providing a further boost for inward investors
But there are major travel experience benefits for south Wales train passengers. The brand new intercity trains operating directly from Swansea will all be fully in place by next year.
Each one has more seats per train and more leg room than the existing diesel fleet. Journey times between south Wales and London will be reduced by fifteen minutes making the last two competitive with Bristol for London back office jobs.
However journey time savings are not possible between Swansea and Cardiff as line speeds are restricted to 75-90 mph, a result of winding track resulting from the topography and 1850’s deals with local landowners.
But this indicates the lack of a rail strategy for Wales and England (from Westminster) including line straightening taking place in advance of electrification providing a further 20 minute time saving resulting from 140 mph train speeds, as will occur east of Bristol Parkway.
The Westminster Government’s reason for not electrifying between Cardiff and Swansea was ‘eliminating track closures, noise and disruption during the construction period’
Coincidentally this month the UK Government awarded a £6.6bn initial railway construction contract for the £50bn HS2 railway (described by the UK Infrastructure and Projects Authority as ‘in doubt with major risks’).
Is this expenditure the underlying financial reason for Swansea’s woes?
HS2 will relieve the BirminghamLondon route capacity problems but give no economic benefit to south Wales.
Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds will become more attractive than Cardiff and Swansea as their London journey times would be considerably less.
Other electrification schemes have not been evaluated: North Wales (despite being geographically close to HS2) will benefit only if the main line is electrified; and south Wales to Birmingham. Deferred are Bristol Temple Meads; the Trans Pennine service (Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds) and England’s midland main line to Sheffield.
The TGV programme in France starved the Corail inter city services of investment for over twenty years. That should not be repeated in Wales.
Restarting Swansea electrification in the future, apparently a UK Government option, will incur the set up costs of a new project – putting a new technical team together, a new supply chain for materials and equipment and renewing funding, evaluation and planning processes.
The planned major electricity substation at Llanwern has not been mentioned in the statement despite being a pre-requisite for Swansea and any Valley Lines electrification.
In his telephone call Mr Cairns indicated he was in negotiations with Chris Grayling (Westminster Transport secretary) regarding new express services running directly between Carmarthen and London using the Swansea district line adjacent to the M4.
Their economic benefit to west Wales is an attractive proposition as was his suggested park and ride station at Velindre – proposed in my report to Welsh Government on public transport hubs in Swansea (2016).
But this could already have been in a strategy; not a compensatory proposal.
And the forecast 142% SWML passenger growth and 32 million passengers travelling through Cardiff Central station both by 2042 becomes the next major challenge.
Ten years ago a senior Department for Transport civil servant indicated to me the criterion for electrification to Swansea would be four electric trains an hour each way – two for London and two for Bristol.
Now that would put Swansea on the inward investors map.
Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy) at the University of South Wales.