Passions are about to get even higher

AUGUST is traditionally a month in which political mischief-makers can run riot with party leaders on holiday and limelight-hungry ministers making interventions at every opportunity.

This year, much more than summer hijinks are underway in Conservative circles.

Nothing less than a plan for the UK’s future outside the EU is being thrashed out. In the wake of last year’s referendum ministers dodged questions about what this would look like with the mantra that “Brexit means Brexit”.

This was unconvincing at the time and as the March 2019 departure from the EU races closer it is becoming ever more urgent that the country knows it will not crash out of the union without a deal to protect trade and jobs.

There had been hopes among pro-EU campaigners in different parties that the UK could go for a “soft” option and, following perhaps the example of Norway, formally leave but remain a participant in the single market and the customs union. But eurosceptics who want freedom of movement to end and long for the UK to have the ability to strike new trading relationships in emerging markets are adamant that this would be a betrayal of Brexit.

In their view, Brexit means escaping the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and saying goodbye to the era of common regulations and tariffs. If passions get high, it is because nothing less than the independence of a country is perceived to be at stake.

The determination of Brexiteers to secure such a break with Brussels should not be underestimated. Chancellor Philip Hammond’s joint statement with leading eurosceptic and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox that the UK will be quitting the single market and the customs union appears a major success for this group.

But the Brexit drama is far from finished. Vital legislation will have to get through the House of Commons and the loyalties of people in different parties will be tested as they mull questions as varied as sovereignty and trade policy.

James Chapman, the former chief of staff of Brexit Secretary David Davis, has suggested it is time for a new pro-EU, centrist party called the Democrats to be founded. He argues that the consequences of a hard Brexit would “make Black Wednesday look like a picnic”.

Former Steel Minister Amber Rudd has refused to rule out joining “like-minded people who want to save our country” to steer the UK away from such a fate.

Britain’s electoral system means it is hard for smaller parties to make progress, even if they win millions of votes. The story of the SDP split from Labour demonstrates how plenty of excitement, supporters and publicity are not enough to change the arithmetic of the Commons; Ukip won votes across Britain but could not put a purple army on the green benches.

Nevertheless, British political history is full of examples of coalitions, alliances, floor-crossing and surprises. The journey to 2019 could feature fireworks. The Western Mail newspaper is published by Media Wales a subsidiary company of Trinity Mirror PLC, which is a member of IPSO, the Independent Press Standards Organisation. The entire contents of The Western Mail are the copyright of Media Wales Ltd. It is an offence to copy any of its contents in any way without the company’s permission. If you require a licence to copy parts of it in any way or form, write to the Head of Finance at Six Park Street. The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in 2016 was 62.8%