Hard Brexit fears for Welsh agri-industry
Ahard Brexit could be hugely damaging to Welsh farmers, according to a new report examining the impact of possible postBrexit trade deals on agriculture.
The report, carried out by the AgriFood and Biosciences institute (AFBI) in Dublin in conjunction with the University of Missouri, looked at the impact of three different postBrexit trade scenarios on agriculture in Wales and the rest of the UK.
The results show that a bespoke free trade agreement with the EU, without tariffs and quotas, would result in the least disruption for the key commodities grown and produced in Wales.
The WTO default scenario, which has tariffs imposed on all imports and exports, would have a positive impact on some sectors including beef and dairy, but would be massively detrimental to the sheep sector.
Unilateral trade liberalisation, where the UK Government sets zero tariff on imports but exports face tariffs, would be very damaging on price and production for all sectors modelled.
NFU Cymru deputy president John Davies said: “The report makes stark reading for the Welsh livestock industry – unilateral trade liberalisation is predicted to have a devastating impact on specialist suckler beef production, with a drop of around 60% in the suckler beef herd and a drop of nearly 20% in the sheep flock.
“The impact for Wales would be far-reaching, not just for farmers but also for the rural economy reliant on farmers accessing goods and services in rural communities.”
Mr Davies said the loss of productive capacity would question the viability of the thousands of jobs involved in processing and adding value to Welsh beef and lamb, and impact on landscapes that rely on extensive livestock production for their management, maintenance and protection.
He added: “While the WTO default scenario may look positive for sectors where we import more than we export, this would be a highly protectionist outcome and it is highly unlikely that any future government would tolerate the subsequent rise in food prices for the consumer of such an arrangement. I am sure we would quickly progress to a unilateral trade liberalisation scenario.
“This report once again highlights the importance of trade to Welsh agriculture and that unfettered access to EU markets is crucial to the future prosperity of agriculture and the food and drink industry in Wales.
“I am pleased that the UK Government now appears to accept the importance of the UK and the EU continuing to trade within a customs union for a transitional period following our departure from the EU in 2019.
“If this is achievable, I would hope it would provide the necessary breathing space to allow for the UK and EU to agree a free and frictionless trade deal, along the lines of the FTA scenario in this report.
“As the modelling shows, this will cause the least amount of disruption to our industry and allow us to focus on developing a future domestic policy framework to help achieve our vison of a productive, progressive and profitable Welsh agricultural industry.”
RSPB Cymru director Katie-jo Luxton said: “The Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute report (AFBI) has highlighted that the UK agriculture industry, in particular upland sheep farming in Wales, faces an uncertain future as a result of Brexit and what will be agreed over the next few years as the UK leaves the EU.
“Now that we’re leaving the European Union, public policy will play a key role in shaping the future of land use and management in Wales, and elsewhere in the UK. Public money should be focused on the delivery of public goods such as maintaining the characteristic Welsh landscape that stores carbon, manages water quality, provides a home for nature, and reduces flood risk. Upland sheep and cattle farming in Wales can play an important role in delivering these public goods.”