PRO14... THE DAWN OF A NEW ERA... AND WHO CAN DETHRONE THE CHAMPION SCARLETS?
The big kick-off is upon us and so it’s time to consider the main debating points surrounding the inaugural Guinness PRO14. We asked eight WalesOnline rugby writers to answer the same seven questions covering what is something of a brave new dawn for the
Who will win the Guinness PRO14 and why?
Simon Thomas: Glasgow. Two-time Super Rugby winner Dave Rennie is a genuine world-class coach and his recruitment from the Chiefs could prove the signing of the season. Delme Parfitt: Leinster. It’s a bit of an easy pick, but not only do they have a hugely-talented and deep squad, but they will also be smarting after being mugged by the Scarlets in last season’s semi-final in front of their own fans. Andy Howell: Leinster. They have one of the strongest and best squads in Europe, containing Irish stars like Sean O’Brien, Tadhg Furlong, Johnny Sexton and Jamie Heaslip, while Australia’s 2015 World Cup star Scott Fardy is also on board, Mark Orders: Leinster. They will have a hunger about them after missing out last season and have made a superb back-row signing in Scott Fardy. Anthony Woolford: Glasgow: They may have lost a top coach in Gregor Townsend, but they’ve inherited arguably an even better one in Chiefs supremo Dave Rennie, while his back-room team is bolstered by former Wales skipper Jonathan Humphreys and Kiwi Jason O’Halloran from the Scottish set-up.
Rob Lloyd: Leinster. No squad possesses their depth – a side full of fringe players put 50 points on Gloucester in pre-season – and even though the Dubliners will be without injured Ireland centres Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw for the early months of the campaign, they have enviable firepower. Matthew Southcombe: Leinster. Scott Fardy and James Lowe are two quality signings, adding to a strong squad that will have the bit between their teeth after last year’s semi-final exit. Ben James: Munster. After a tough year following the death of coach Anthony Foley and a heavy defeat to the Scarlets in the play-off final, expect Munster to respond this year.
Which six teams will make the play-offs?
Simon Thomas: In Conference A, Glasgow, Munster, Ospreys and Conference B, Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster. I take the Ospreys to just edge out Cardiff Blues in Pool A, the slightly-weaker nature of Pool B should suit Ulster. Delme Parfitt: Conference A, Munster, Cheetahs, Glasgow and Conference B Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster. Cheetahs to make altitude count at home and Ospreys to miss out in Conference A, the obvious contenders in B. Andy Howell: Conference A, Ospreys, Munster, Glasgow Warriors and Conference B, Leinster, Ulster and Scarlets. It’s the usual suspects although I expect New Zealander Dave Rennie to build on the work Gregor Townsend did with Glasgow and implement an all-out attacking brand of rugby. Mark Orders: Conference A, Munster, Glasgow, Ospreys and Conference B, Leinster, Ulster, Scarlets. The South Africans will take time to adapt. Anthony Woolford: Conference A, Glasgow, Munster, Ospreys and Conference B, Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster. Despite the new set-up it’s all set to be the same old story with Italian struggles, the Dragons and Blues bringing up the Welsh rear. Rob Lloyd: Conference A, Munster, Glasgow, Ospreys and Conference B, Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster. The Cheetahs might upset a few, while Edinburgh should be improved under Richard Cockerill, but last season’s top six look well equipped to challenge again.
Matthew Southcombe: Conference A, Munster, Glasgow, Ospreys and Conference B, Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster. Cardiff Blues could upset the applecart in Conference A, but they still need to prove they can be consistent. I can’t see too many surprises in Conference B. Ben James: The Ospreys should scrape in along with Munster and Glasgow Warriors from Conference A, while the Scarlets, Leinster and Ulster are my picks from Conference B.
Which young Welsh player looks best set for a breakthrough season?
Simon Thomas: Owen Lane (Cardiff Blues). I’ve been banging this drum for a while now having followed his progress from junior rugby. Big, strong and fast, a real threat at centre or wing. Delme Parfitt: Tomos Williams. The Blues scrum-half is so special and he possesses a bullet pass which increases the tempo every time he gets on the field. Andy Howell: Ashton Hewitt. Welsh rugby’s fastest player missed a large chunk of last season following a head injury but looks in great nick and could thrive playing on the wing outside a certain Gavin Henson for the Dragons. Mark Orders: Keelan Giles. There is an argument he broke through last season, but a Wales cap eluded him and, a year older and a year stronger, he will be on a mission to put that right. Anthony Woolford: Owen Watkin (Ospreys). Had a nightmare 12 months out through injury but could well make up for lost time this campaign and couldn’t have a better midfield mentor than returning prodigal son James Hook. Rob Lloyd: Ryan Elias. The Scarlets hooker is a powerful, abrasive carrier, who relishes the close-quarter battle.
Matthew Southcombe: Seb Davies. After all the talk of promoting from within at the Cardiff Blues, they may be more inclined to give the 21-year-old more chances this season and he’s already shown signs of real quality. Ben James: Ryan Conbeer. Having already shown his incredible finishing prowess with Wales Under-20s, could he take to regional rugby with Scarlets as well as teammate Steff Evans has done?
How do you expect the new South African influence to pan out?
Simon Thomas: The £6m they bring in is desperately needed, but on the field it will be tough for them having to compete on two fronts – PRO14 and Currie Cup – in the early months of the season. Delme Parfitt: It will slowly improve as the season progresses. We should beware a rush to judgement on it if the two sides flatter to deceive early doors. Andy Howell: It may take them time to get going, but I don’t expect it to be too long before they become formidable opponents on Springbok soil. But they will initially struggle in away games. Mark Orders: There shouldn’t be great expectations at this point, though the Cheetahs are likely to prove a handful in South Africa, with Southern Kings likely to find the going tough. Anthony Woolford: Though the cash brought into the competition will be welcomed, whether the appearance of two African sides, who didn’t exactly pull up many Baobab trees in Super Rugby, ups the standard of the PRO14 has to be questioned.
Rob Lloyd: The Cheetahs could be helped by the altitude and heat of Bloemfontain and could emerge as playoff contenders, while the Kings, who have had to put together a squad from virtual scratch, could find their trips north a baptism of fire. Matthew Southcombe: Everyone is going to need to show a bit of patience with them and if either of the provinces finish with a winning record, it’ll be a brilliant achievement after a turbulent summer. Ben James: Short-term, expect a similar scenario to the Italians – tough to beat at home but not great travellers.
What is concerning you most as the league campaign begins?
Simon Thomas: The biggest concern for me is the TV deal. It is up for renegotiation this year and we simply have to bring in more revenue to bridge the gap to the French and English leagues. It’s absolutely pivotal. Delme Parfitt: The ability of the Italian sides to make a worthwhile contribution. If they continue as cannon fodder then, never mind expansion, it’s time to kick them out. Andy Howell: The perception that the competition is inferior to England’s Aviva Premiership or the French Top 14. The France national team has been poor while Wales and Ireland have been the dominant sides in the Six Nations since the introduction of the Celtic League. Mark Orders: Talk of expansion, possibly leading to German, Spanish and North American teams joining which may not play well with supporters and could dilute the competition’s integrity. Anthony Woolford: That we see the same struggles for the Italian sides and the Welsh regions not making a good enough impact. We may have more money to play with, but I fear we will remain the poor relations to the Aviva Premiership. Rob Lloyd: The strength of the Aviva Premiership is there are few gimmees when the top sides play those in the bottom half, but the top PRO14 contenders look set to dominate lower lights like the Italians and the Dragons.
Matthew Southcombe: That the South Africans will suffer heavy defeats in the early rounds and hoards of fans will be openly critical of the expansion. I was very sceptical at first, but this expansion was needed and it should be given time to bed-in. Ben James: The conference system could either be inspired or catastrophic. Granted the league needed the South African money, but it’s hard to argue the product wasn’t improving in recent seasons before the change.
What is the one thing we need to see most?
Simon Thomas: Improved officiating. It will be intriguing to see how things develop under newly-appointed referees chief Greg Garner and with two South Africans now on the elite panel. Delme Parfitt: The more jeopardy around each and every game the better. There must be a sense points matter enormously week-in, week-out – otherwise the required intensity won’t be there. Andy Howell: Cardiff Blues and Dragons to be competitive. Blues, along with Ulster, have been massive under-achievers, wallowing along in self-pity, while the Dragons have an awful record although their acquisition by the WRU has brought some hope for this campaign. Mark Orders: A serious Cardiff Blues revival. Wales’s capital city region have been out of sorts for too long and it is overdue for them to have a strong season, but to do so they will need to confound expectations. Anthony Woolford: Seeing more of our top stars. Why can’t the PRO14 take a leaf out of the Aviva Premiership and French Top 14 books and have their big-name players play more rugby?
Rob Lloyd: South African success. Tournament chiefs have been bold in embracing a brave new cross-border world by welcoming the Cheetahs and Kings into the fold and, at the very least, they must be competitive. Matthew Southcombe: Entertainment. The Scarlets set the tone in the play-offs last season and if everyone follows suit this term, we’re in for one heck of year. Ben James: Competitive South African sides. We don’t want another ‘Italian Job’ on our hands.
What song comes into your mind when you think about the PRO14?
Simon Thomas: Things Can Only Get Better – D Ream. There is clearly room for improvement, but with new money coming into the competition, hopefully the prospects are brighter for the future. Delme Parfitt: Half A World Away – Oasis. That’s where the bulk of fixtures will be if some of the expansion plans materialise. Andy Howell: Haven’t got a clue – I don’t like music! Mark Orders: Magical Mystery Tour – Beatles. A year or two ago, it could have been Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now, but let’s be positive as we embark on a bit of a step into the unknown with the South Africans. Anthony Woolford: African Night Flight – David Bowie. The great man’s lyrics in this tune include ‘Wonder how the dollar went down’... Well, £6m extra revenue is a welcome, but what else the Kings and Cheetahs bring to the table we will see.
Rob Lloyd: Keep on Running – Spencer Davis Group. In the last three seasons, Glasgow, Connacht and the Scarlets have claimed the title by playing some scintillating attacking rugby. More of the same please. Matthew Southcombe: It’s Not Right But It’s Okay – Whitney Houston. I don’t think we’ve found the perfect formula yet, but I think we’re moving in the right direction. Ben James: ‘ A Whole New World from Disney’s Aladdin. This is new territory for rugby and a “magic carpet ride” seems as good a way as any to reach South Africa.