Half of voters in Wales now back Labour, says poll
LABOUR’S resurgence in Wales is continuing with the latest poll suggesting the party is “thriving”.
Half of voters in Wales would back Labour in a Westminster election and it is on course to win 31 of the 60 seats in the Assembly, YouGov polling indicates.
Labour staged a major comeback in Wales in the June UK election, defying earlier predictions of a disaster at the polls and instead taking three seats from the Conservatives.
The latest research for Cardiff University and ITV Wales suggests the party, led by Carwyn Jones in the Senedd and Jeremy Corbyn in the Commons, could win another two Westminster seats, leaving it with 30 of the 40 in Wales.
Professor Roger Scully of the university’s Wales Governance Centre said: “Labour would capture Aberconwy from the Conservatives, and Arfon from Plaid Cymru.”
The Liberal Democrats were wiped out in June, but the polling suggests the party could win back Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru. Such a move would leave today’s fourstrong Plaid group with just two MPs; the Conservatives would be left with seven, a drop of one.
The survey of voters’ intentions in a Westminster election shows Plaid suffered the biggest dip in support, while backing for its rivals remains largely unchanged.
The poll put Labour strongly in first place at 50% (+1.1), followed by the Conservatives at 32% (-1.6), Plaid at 8% (-2.4), the Lib Dems at 4% (-0.5) and Ukip at 3% (+1).
Prof Scully noted that the changes were well within the margin of error.
Labour supporters will be heartened at the thought of the party winning more than half the seats in an Assembly election, but the Conservatives could see 16 AMs elected – five more than last year. This would put the party well ahead of Plaid, which won 12 last year but is now on course to win 11.
Ukip – which made electoral history by getting a seven-strong group elected in 2016 – and the Lib Dems would have just one AM each.
When people were asked how they would use their constituency vote they gave their strongest backing to Labour at 43% (+1) followed by the Conservatives at 25% (-1), Plaid at 19% (no change), the Lib Dems at 5% (-1) and Ukip at 4% (-1).
Prof Scully said in his online analysis: “Overall, this is clearly a very good poll for the Labour party – one fully in line with the strong showings that the party has been making in Britain-wide polls, and in many local council by-elections, since the June general election. Welsh Labour had not previously reached 50% support for Westminster in any poll since February 2013.
“The incredible political turnaround that the party achieved during the general election campaign continues to have some life in it. The Conservatives have slipped only a little bit since the general election, and remain at what are, by historic standards, quite high levels of support for them in Wales.
“They are currently clearly the second-strongest party in Wales, even in the context of a devolved election... Wales now seems to have effective two-party politics for Westminster and three-party politics for Cardiff Bay. But in both political arenas the Labour party is currently thriving.”
Labour declined to comment on the boost in the polls.
A Welsh Conservative spokesman said: “Polls such as these should come with a health warning given the industry’s failure to predict a raft of results in recent times. The only polls which counts is the one taken on election day which remains the focus of our work.”