Outside bets for Tory leadership
With Boris’ 4,000-word ‘essay’ sparking rumours of a possible coup in the Tories , Political editor David Williamson looks at the runners and riders who could replace Theresa May in a party which has a knack for picking leaders the country has scarcely he
THE bookies’ favourites to be the next Conservative leader are people who are already in positions of power.
The names trotted out usually include Brexit Secretary David Davis, Chancellor Philip Hammond, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Home Secretary Amber Rudd.
Sometimes there are wild cards like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson.
But the Conservative party has a tradition of overlooking the favourites and putting a relative newcomer in charge.
Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and Michael Portillo never got to helm the party of Disraeli and Churchill – but the likes of Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron were able to grab the top job.
The Foreign Secretary’s headlinemaking Brexit intervention has revived speculation about Theresa May’s future. If she does hold on until Britain has left the EU the party may be in a mood to skip a generation in its search for a successor.
Here are some of the men and women who could be seen as contenders in the months and years ahead.
1. Tom Tugendhat (40/1 at Ladbrokes)
Mr Tugendhat only arrived in the Commons as the MP for Tonbridge and Malling in 2015 but he has a CV that stands out from many of his peers.
The 44-year-old studied Islamics at Cambridge and learned Arabic in Yemen. After a spell as a journalist in Beirut he joined the Territorial Army and has served in Iraq and Afghanistan; he became military assistant to the Chief of the Defence Staff but also spent time in the City and in public relations.
He has now won the chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs select committee – one of the best nongovernment jobs in parliament. It shows he is highly rated by fellow MPs and it is a brilliant platform for him to articulate his vision for Britain and its role in the world.
2. Gavin Williamson (66/1)
Mr Williamson, 41, is not a household name but he has a first-hand knowledge of how government really works and is already in a position of power.
He entered parliament in 2010 and in 2013 became David Cameron’s eyes and ears in the Commons as his parliamentary private secretary.
Mr Williamson managed Theresa May’s parliamentary leadership campaign and is now in the pivotal role of Chief Whip. He negotiated the deal with the DUP which kept the PM in power and will come to greater prominence in the months to come as he works to get Brexit legislation through the Commons.
The dad of two was brought up by Labour-supporting parents in Scarborough and attended a comprehensive school and Bradford University. This is a very different background to recent prime ministers, but the Tory voters of South Staffordshire have clutched him to their hearts, increasing his majority to 22,733.
Although he supported Remain, Brexiteers will say warm things about him – and his decision to keep a pet tarantula in the Commons shows he is not afraid of things that can get rather hairy. 3. Priti Patel (33/1) Ms Patel, 45, has long been one of the most dynamic figures on the right of the Tory party and as the Secretary of State for International Development she is in the cabinet and at the heart of Government.
She was a leading champion of Brexit and is seen as a modern champion of Thatcherite thinking.
Ms Patel attended a comprehensive school and Keele University and as an MP has chaired the All-Party Group on small shops. She could be in a strong position when the next leadership election comes around.
4. Johnny Mercer (50/1)
This was Mr Mercer’s pitch on the doorstep in 2015: “Hello. My name’s Johnny and I’ve just left the Army to be your MP.” He recalls how campaign director Lynton Crosby told him: “You ain’t gonna win, mate.”
But this 36-year-old champion of care for veterans ousted Labour from Plymouth Moor View and was re-elected in June with a 5,019 majority.
He was raised with seven siblings and instead of joining the Royal Navy, as three of his brothers did, went to Sandhurst, was attached to a commando regiment and served three tours in Afghanistan.
There were raised eyebrows when it turned out he was in a Dove shower gel advertisement. If his Commons career takes off we could see a lot more of him.
5. (50/1)
This 46-year-old former RAF engineer has a reputation as a formidable organiser. A champion of free trade, he founded the Cobden Centre – a think tank celebrating 19th century Liberal thinker Richard Cobden. Steve Baker
His status as a leading eurosceptic was confirmed when he became co-chairman of Conservatives for Britain and now he is a Brexit minister.
If he decides to pursue higher office his tenacity should not be underestimated.
6. Penny Mordaunt (100/1)
This daughter of a former paratrooper is a Royal Navy reservist who was a magician’s assistant as a sixth-former. She reached a mass audience when she took part in the celebrity diving show Splash! but has gained solid Government experience and is now Minister of State at the Department for Work and Pensions.
Ms Mordaunt, 44, worked on George W Bush’s campaign in both his elections and is at ease in the limelight. She was a passionate campaigner for Brexit – coming under fire for talking up Turkey’s chances of joining the EU – and it is highly unlikely she has reached the limit of her ambitions. 7. George Freeman (50/1) Fifty-year-old George Freeman’s plan for a festival celebrating Conservative thought was dubbed a “Tory Glastonbury” but he asked: “Why is it the left who have all the fun in politics?”
This descendant of Gladstone is excited by ideas and chairs the Prime Minister’s Policy Board.
He was a founder of the 2020 group which champions social mobility. If the party wants to put the Brexit struggle behind it and gallop to the centre ground then Mr Freeman could emerge as a prominent source of ideas.
8. Dominic Raab (16/1)
Politicians mustn’t be afraid of taking a few hard knocks. This 43-year-old, who calls himself “Dom”, trains at his local boxing club and captained his university karate team.
He had an exciting career at the Foreign Office and helped bring war criminals to justice at the Hague. Before becoming an MP he was chief of staff for present day Brexit Secretary David Davis.
He is now Minister of State for Courts and Justice and if his wing of the party has the wind at the back in a few years’ time Mr Raab will be even more of a leading figure.
9. Rory (50/1)
At the age of just 44 Mr Stewart already has an incredible life story. He has walked across Afghanistan, served as Deputy-Governor of two provinces, tutored Princes William and Harry, written best-selling books, run a charity in Kabul, been a Harvard professor and become the youngest ever chairman of the Defence select committee.
Mr Stewart is now Minister of State for International Development. It remains to be seen how far he wants to take his political adventure. Stewart
10. (100/1)
The rivalry between David and Ed Miliband enthralled political commentators. The idea of a leadership contest featuring both Boris Johnson and his brother, Jo, would have them in convulsions of excitement.
Mr Johnson, 45, like his brother, was a highly educated and successful journalist before entering the Commons. If by the time of the next leadership contest there is nostalgia for the era of Cameron and Osborne, the spotlight might shine on Mr Johnson. He was a contemporary of the former Chancellor in Oxford’s Bullingdon Club and under Mr Cameron he was head of the Downing St policy unit.
Today he is Minister of State for Universities and Science. Jo Johnson