Rise of the right leaves Merkel with new challenges to tackle
The election result in Germany has produced an upset, with the far-right Alternative for Germany party bursting on to the stage. Chris Kelsey looks at the implications for Germany - and the rest of Europe
GERMAN elections do not usually attract much attention in Britain. After all, they’re not very exciting. The pendulum swings - occasionally - from the moderately conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) to the moderately left-wing Social Democrats (SPD).
Most often, in recent years, the two parties have ended up sharing power in a “grand coalition” unimaginable in this country. (Can you imagine Labour and the Tories sharing power?)
But now the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has burst on to the stage after an ugly campaign marked by zenophobia.
It’s a huge upset that could have long-lasting effects both in Germany and further afield.
The AfD is the first right-wing nationalist party to enter the German parliament (the Bundestag) since the 1950s. That would be significant in itself, but more important is the size of the party’s breakthrough.
The party has gained 12.6% of the votes, which under Germany’s strictly proportional system means it will have 94 seats in the Bundestag - an astonishing achievement for a party that was only founded in 2013.
Overnight it has gone from being unrepresented to the third largest party in the Bundestag - and if the SPD were to go back into coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU would become the leading opposition party. Germany’s politicians will inevitably think back to the 1930 election, when the Nazi party went overnight from being a minor party to the main opposition party.
It’s partly to avoid that scenario that the SPD has announced it will not go back into a coalition with Mrs Merkel’s party.
So Mrs Merkel must now form a coalition with the only other acceptable parties that can give her a majority, the liberal FDP and the Greens. It would be an odd combination - the FPD are right-wing liberals, pro-business, pro-nuclear power, tough on immigration and deeper European integration.
That would sit well quite well with the CDU and their more right-wing Bavarian sister party the CSU, but could lead to some awkward battles with the Greens.
Difficult and unstable coalitions are also an unhappy memory from the Weimar period, and the parties will no doubt work hard to make sure this one works and lasts a full four-year term.
But that in itself raises problems.
The easiest way for such a coalition to survive would be to do as little as possible that would upset its various partners. And while Mrs Merkel may be best-known in Britain for her bold decision in 2015 to open Germany’s borders to refugees, at home she is often criticised for being too cautious.
But a policy of caution runs the risk of giving more ammunition to the AfD, who are threatening to be a disruptive force attacking the cosy consensus of the political establishment.
Mrs Merkel has said she wants to win back the people who voted for the far right. This will be both the biggest challenge and the biggest test for the new government.
The number of asylum applications in Germany has shrunk dramatically, from more than 745,000 last year to just 111,616 in the first six months of this. Mrs Merkel now needs to demonstrate that her policy of integrating those that have already arrived is working if she is to stem the anti-migrant tide.
Also significant is the way the vote split across the country. The AfD polled particularly well in the former East Germany - as did the far left Linke party. And it was among men aged 35 to 44 that the AfD enjoyed most support.
These are the people who feel left behind, much like those in the parts of Wales and England who voted most strongly for Ukip and Brexit.
Mrs Merkel must find a way of spreading the benefits of Germany’s strong economic growth into these places. One way to do this would be to boost public spending on things such as infrastructure and public sector pay.
By boosting domestic spending this could also help deflect criticism over Germany’s huge trade surplus, from Donald Trump among others.
The AfD began life as a Eurosceptic party, feeding off German voters’ discontent at having to bail out the Greeks. As the Eurozone crisis eased it switched focus to opposing Merkel’s open door policy on refugees.
But it hasn’t lost its Euroscepticism, welcoming Nigel Farage to share a platform during the election campaign. And with French president Emmanuelle Macron due to launch his proposals for deeper Eurozone integration on Tuesday, this opens up another flank for the AfD to attack the government.
Macron’s proposals will in any case go further than Merkel would like. But with barracking from the AfD and uncertain support from her liberal coalition partners, the German chancellor may be more likely to oppose the French president’s more radical ideas, such as a large Eurozone budget and parliament.
From the British point of view it’s the Brexit talks that matter most.
It’s unlikely that Merkel will change her position much on the terms of Britain’s exit. What could have a bigger impact is the time it takes to form a coalition, which could extend to months - an unwelcome distraction at a crucial time when the Brexit timetable is already fast running out.
The vote for the AfD is the latest manifestation of a right-wing populist tide that has swept the Western world in the last two years. It’s Germany catching up with Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
With Germany’s past it inevitably has unhappy resonances. But it needs to kept in perspective.
Germany’s post-war constitution has very strong democratic protections. And the historic memory of Germany’s tragic and appalling past is very strong.
One in eight Germans have voted for a party that is anti-immigrant, anti-Islamic, anti-European. Disturbing as that is, it compares well with the votes for Le Pen, Trump and Brexit.
The challenge now is for Germany’s mainstream politicians to make sure this is the highwater mark for the AfD.