Boundary changes would have put the wind up all politicians

Chief reporter Martin Shipton considers what would have happened if June’s General Election had been fought on proposed new constituency boundaries

MOST members of the political class – including the parties themselves – were astonished when Theresa May failed to secure an overall majority on June 8.

There was a widespread assumption that while her “strong and stable” message was unconvincing and easy to mock, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn could not provide a credible alternative government.

In the event, a significant number of people warmed to Corbyn, especially the young, who came out to vote in numbers that were unprecedented in living memory.

Mrs May’s loss of her majority has changed the political dynamic, leaving her weakened and her party apparently floundering on Brexit and other issues.

Yet it seems that things could have been different if boundary change proposals published last week had been in force at the time of the election.

Under the proposals, the number of MPs elected from Wales would be cut from 40 to 29.

And the larger constituencies would, in some cases, have produced different results.

The party that would arguably have lost out most is Plaid Cymru, which, according to projections made by the authoritative website UK Polling Report, would have lost two of the four seats it now holds and come within a few hundred votes of losing a third.

Plaid’s only safe(ish) seat would be Gwynedd, where its candidate – presumably its parliamentary leader Liz Saville Roberts – would have won 21,568 votes, with Labour in second place on 16,018 and the Conservatives not far behind on 15,534.

The only other seat to have been won by Plaid would have been Ceredigion a Gogledd Sir Benfro (Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North), where Ben Lake would have come top in a tight four-way marginal. He would have secured 14,329 votes, against 13,666 for Labour, 13,323 for the Conservatives and 12,555 for the Liberal Democrats.

While only a notional majority of 663, that would have seemed like a landslide in comparison with the majority of 104 he actually got in Ceredigion over Mark Williams, the former Liberal Democrat MP he ousted.

The UK Polling Report projections show Plaid losing its two other sitting MPs.

In the (Carmarthen) new seat, Caerfyrddin Jonathan Edwards would have been runnerup to Labour, winning 16,486 votes against 18,624 for Labour.

In Ynys Mon a Fangor (Anglesey and Bangor), Hywel Williams would also have come second to Labour, with 15,564 votes against Labour’s Ynys Mon MP Albert Owen with 23,037 votes – a fairly hefty defeat.

These projected results indicate that Plaid Cymru’s parliamentary presence is by no means secure, and that in a polarised general election – as the next one is likely to be – the party could be seriously squeezed. In the worst-case scenario, Liz Saville Roberts could be Plaid’s only MP, just as Gwynfor Evans was in the late 1960s.

Redrawn boundaries would have seen MPs from other parties at risk too.

In De Clwyd a Gogledd Maldwyn (Clwyd South and Montgomery North) Labour’s Susan Elan Jones – who currently represents Clwyd South – would have lost to Conservative Glyn Davies (currently the MP for Montgomeryshire) by 19,983 to 21,383.

At the same time the Conservative Secretary of State for Wales, Alun Cairns, would have had a massive scare when seeking re-election. His Vale of Glamorgan seat – which he retained with a reduced majority of 2,190 votes – would under the Boundary Commission proposals be split. The eastern part of it, centred on Barry, would be called Vale of Glamorgan East. On June 8 Labour would have won it with a majority of 2,564. The western part of Mr Cairns’ current seat would have merged with Bridgend to form a new constituency called Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan West. If he had been the candidate, Mr Cairns would have won it by just 212 votes.

Across the UK as a whole, projections suggest that Mrs May would have won an overall majority, with 307 of the 600 seats. If that had happened, she would almost certainly be in a stronger position now.

Having said that, she would still have faced a daunting task with Brexit.

In the current political circumstances, most think it likely that the boundary proposals won’t get through when they are voted on in Parliament in a year’s time. There are too many Tory backbenchers – and, as we have seen, at least one Cabinet member – who would find the changes not to their advantage. But we live in such volatile political times that it would be foolish to take that for granted.