Where now forWelsh rail services after Arriva’s shock withdrawal?
Having come so far on preparing its bid, at a cost running into several million pounds, why has German-owned Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) decided to pull out so close to December’s bid deadline – and what does the decision mean for passengers? Business edito
Will there be more trains/trams in the next franchise?
The simple answer is yes. But exactly how many, and on which routes, is a matter for the current bidders, who are not allowed to publicly reveal their plans.
The winning bidder will also have the contract to design and build the next phase of the South Wales Metro transport project, with the electrification of the Valley Lines into Cardiff.
And on what is the busiest part of the Wales and Borders franchise network, the Welsh Government wants to see far more rolling stock and frequency of service – which will provide more opportunities for people to leave their cars at home.
In theory, bigger trains and a more frequent service across the franchise should provide a better service for passengers. But don’t expect a whole fleet of new trains turning up at your station when the franchise goes live next October.
In its publication, entitled Rolling out our Metro, the Welsh Government said: “Metro is a new transport system that will transform the way we travel around the Cardiff Capital Region. It will provide faster, more frequent, and joined-up services.”
That means at least four services an hour (currently two) from periphery stations on the Metro like Treherbert, Aberdare and Merthyr Tydfil, and closer to Cardiff it opens up the potential for up to 12 services an hour from Pontypridd (currently up to seven) into the capital.
And on the Valley Lines this could see new trams or light train rolling stock introduced.
How new rolling stock will be paid for, including new diesel-powered trains on other parts of the network, has yet to be determined.
However, the winning bidder could lease new rolling stock, with the financing costs covered as part of the subsidy it would receive to operate services from the Welsh Government, through Transport for Wales.
Alternatively, the Welsh Government itself could seek to finance the cost of new rolling stock and lease it to the franchise operator.
To encourage greater use of trains or trams on the franchise, the Welsh Government is committed to seeing huge park-and-ride schemes built close to existing and new Metro stations.
These could be in places such as Llanwern, Merthyr and Taffs Well. Has ATW been unfairly criticised?
ATW has faced criticism for having overcrowded trains, particularly on busy commuter services from the Valleys into Cardiff. However, it is currently investing in increasing capacity, which will continue into next year.
But when Arriva won the franchise back in 2003 from the UK Government’s Department for Transport, there was no provision for increasing train capacity in the event of rising passenger numbers.
So, they have done exactly what they were asked to do under the terms of the franchise. What happens to ATW staff? That will be a matter for the winner of the next franchise and the body awarding the contract, in the Welsh Government’s transport company, Transport for Wales.
But the usual process in the UK rail sector is that when companies win new rail franchises, then staff that worked for the previous operator are transferred over to them.
ATW currently employs 2,356 people, of whom 610 are train drivers and 512 guards.
Who are the three companies still in the race?
KeolisAmey, a joint venture between French transport giant Keolis and public service provider Amey. They are the new operator to run the Metrolink Network in Greater Manchester.
Hong Kong-based MTR Corporation, which is one of the world’s leading transport companies, with interests globally from Australia to Sweden. MTR, along with bidding partner FirstGroup, recently won the franchise to run South West Trains for the next seven years.
Abellio Group, which operates bus and rail networks across Europe and is the international arm of the Dutch national rail operator. Abellio in the UK operates 81 bus routes across central, south and west London, as well as north Surrey, from six depots.
When will the winner be announced?
The final bids have to be submitted to Transport for Wales in December.
Assuming all three are still in the process at that point, it would take Transport for Wales several months to get to a position to be able to announce its preferred bidder.
What would then follow would be more due diligence ahead of signing off on the franchise, which will run for 15 years, and the building of the next phase of the Metro, possibly in the summer. The new franchise starts in October 2018.
Could there be any last-minute pitfalls? Potentially yes. A deal is still needed between the UK government and its Department for Transport to transfer the currently non-devolved franchise over to the Welsh Government.
And that needs a financial settlement underpinning it, so that the Welsh Government still receives an effective subsidy from Westminster to support the next franchise operator. And a deal is also needed on transferring the rail infrastructure for the Valley Lines over to the Welsh Government, so it can procure electrification.
When will we see Valley Lines electrification?
Electrification of the Valley Lines, for which £734m has already been ring-fenced in the £1.2bn City Deal for the Cardiff Capital Region, is not expected to be completed until 2022-23 – if the winning bidder puts forward a heavy rolling stock solution.
But in theory if a tram solution is approved it could see services commencing on some of the network from as early as 2021.
The funding for the project includes £125m from the UK government, around £120m from the European Regional Development Fund – which is not yet signed off – and the rest from the Welsh Government’s capital budget.