Cuts will see child poverty soar in Wales – warning
WALES is on course to experience the biggest rise in absolute child poverty in the UK if the Westminster Government presses ahead with benefits cuts, one of the country’s most respected economic think tanks has warned.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts Wales’ absolute child poverty rate will rise from 28% for the 2013-2015 period to 34.9% for 2019-2021.
The IFS warns that the hike in poverty is “larger than those projected in Scotland, Northern Ireland, or any English region”.
The Welsh Government responded to today’s report by warning that “welfare reforms are having a devastating impact on low-income families, particularly those with children”.
It wants the UK Government to pause its roll-out of Universal Credit.
The Westminster Government says it is “committed to supporting families while making the welfare system fair”.
BRITAIN’S most respected economic think tank has warned that Wales could see the biggest rise in “absolute poverty” of any UK nation or region if benefit cuts go ahead.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has sounded the alarm with a major report which also predicts an increase in child poverty in Wales.
It expects the absolute child poverty rate to climb from 28% for the 2013-2015 period to 34.9% for 20192021. There will be further concern at an expected rise in overall absolute poverty in Wales over this period from 22.5% to 23.3%.
This report comes ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 22 and will heighten anxiety about the impact of welfare changes on Wales’ most vulnerable households.
The research, supported by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, warns that across the UK the “freeze to most working-age benefits means that around 7.5 million low income households will see their benefit entitlements cut by over £500 per year in real terms”.
It adds that the “limiting of tax credits and universal credit to two children means that some low income families will receive over £2,500 less in benefits than they otherwise would have”.
Focusing on Wales, the IFS states: “Our projections suggest that – if the government sticks to its tax and benefit plans and earnings and rents in Wales grow in line with the official national forecast – overall absolute poverty in Wales will grow by about one percentage point between 201315 and 2019-21. This is mainly due to an increase in child poverty, which is projected to rise from 28% to 35%.
“These increases are larger than those projected in Scotland, Northern Ireland, or any English region: a consequence partly of the fact that poor Welsh households get less than half their income from earnings, and so are particularly exposed to planned benefit cuts.”
Among children, “absolute poverty is projected to increase in each English region and nation of the UK”.
A single person is deemed to be in absolute poverty if he or she has a weekly income of less than £143 after housing costs. For a lone parent with one child the figure is £192.
Tom Waters, one of the authors of the report, warned: “If the Government sticks to planned benefit cuts, it should not be surprised if, according to the official measure, absolute child poverty rises. Every region and nation is projected to see an increase in child poverty, with the largest increases in the North East, East Midlands, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and the smallest in London, the South East, and South West.
“The larger projected rises occur in areas where families with children are more reliant on benefits than earnings for their income, and where more families are likely to be adversely affected by the new twochild limit on means-tested benefits.”
Fellow author Andrew Hood warned that growth in average household incomes is “likely to be sluggish at best”.
Plaid Cymru Work and Pensions spokesman Hywel Williams pressed for a change in direction and for the Assembly to gain welfare powers.
He said: “This is a sobering indictment of Westminster policies and how they impact on Wales. Those in charge in Westminster should read these figures with shame, knowing that their actions are leading towards a substantial rise in children living in poverty.
“Plaid Cymru has consistently opposed Westminster’s welfare reforms and we firmly believe that responsibility over the administration of justice in Wales should be taken away from Westminster and transferred to Wales so the Welsh Government can act to mitigate the worst of Westminster’s welfare reforms.
“It is disappointing that Labour and the Tories have so far teamed-up to block Plaid Cymru’s attempts to transfer responsibility and instead protected Westminster-rule. We will continue to do all we can to block these reforms in Westminster and allow Wales to mitigate their effects.”
A UK Government spokesman
said: “We are committed to supporting families while making the welfare system fair for those who pay for it and those who benefit from it. There are 200,000 fewer children living in poverty than in 2010 and we are helping families keep more of what they earn by cutting taxes and increasing the National Living Wage.”
According to the Department for Work and Pensions, the unemployment rate in Wales at 4% is the lowest on record since 1992, with private sector employment going up 77,000 since 2010.
The SNP yesterday claimed that the UK Government’s plans to roll-out Universal Credit across the UK were “fast becoming Theresa May’s poll tax”.
A Welsh Government spokewoman said: “UK Government welfare reforms are having a devastating impact on lowincome families, particularly those with children, The Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Children has written to the UK Government calling for the roll-out of Universal Credit full service to be paused.
“We are working hard to identify ways we can increase prosperity for people in Wales and help people out of poverty. Job creation, closing the education attainment gap and improving skill levels are top priorities for this Government and represent the most effective levers at our disposal to tackle poverty in Wales.
“We are also continuing to invest in the early years of a child’s life as evidence tells us this is where we can have most impact in terms of improving health, education and other outcomes later in life.”