CALL FOR MORE ASSEMBLY MEMBERS EXPECTED TODAY:
POLITICAL leaders in Wales will face the dilemma of whether to campaign for a bigger Assembly at a time when public services are under funding pressure if as expected an expert panel today calls for more AMs.
The Assembly has had 60 AMs since the day it first met in 1999 but it has gained a host of law-making powers and the ability to vary income tax is on the way.
Supporters of more AMs argue that extra people are needed in the Senedd to scrutinise the Welsh Government but Ukip plans to oppose a bigger Assembly. It will say a referendum should be held before the Assembly is increased in size.
Ukip’s Wales leader Neil Hamilton said: “We’re in favour of reducing the cost of Government, not increasing it... Do you want more doctors or more spin doctors?”
Parties that want more AMs will have to decide whether to invest political capital in making the case.
In 2015 the Assembly Commission – the cross-party body that runs the institution – warned that it was “underpowered and over-stretched”. It calculated that an increase to 80 members would cost an extra £9m while going up to 100 AMs could add as much as £17m to costs.
Llanelli Labour AM Lee Waters acknowledged the difficulty of arguing for more AMs – especially if there is no reduction in the number of councillors and MPs.
He said: “You wouldn’t hear many people inside the Assembly saying we don’t need more Assembly Members... I made the case before becoming an AM for a larger Assembly and having experienced the reality of being a backbench Assembly Member in a small legislature I remain intellectually convinced that we could do with more but I have no appetite to make that case. That’s the honest position and I don’t think many of my colleagues do either.”
However, Cynog Dafis, a former Plaid Cymru AM and MP, expected more AMs would result in overall savings.
He said: “All the evidence suggests the efficiency in government, the quality of government that you get from having a sufficiently large Assembly will more than meet the costs of having additional members.”
Mr Dafis noted that the Assembly is smaller than both the 129-member Scottish Parliament and the 90-member Northern Ireland Assembly.
He asked: “Why should we have a body that’s inferior in size to those?”
Mr Dafis would favour an Assembly of “about 100” and argues this would result in a “larger pool of members from which to fish for ministerial talent”.
Champions of a bigger Assembly will be deeply disappointed if today’s latest report does not lead to expansion. In 2004 the Richard Commission made the case for an 80-member Assembly with AMs chosen by the Single Transferable Vote form of proportional representation.
Professor Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre said: “I think the case for an increase in the number of Assembly Members is very strong indeed.”
He suspects that support for AMs could be cut back in order to fund more members.
“Making the case for more politicians is particularly difficult and even if Wales has an over-abundance of local councillors and arguably MPs and is about to lose four MEPs, nonetheless it’s a tough sell,” he said. “I’d be interested to see if there’s some tough love.”
The expert panel will also make recommendations on “the most suitable electoral system” and “the minimum voting age for Assembly elections”.
Prof Jones said the 2014 Scottish independence referendum in which 16-year-olds could take part had strengthened support for a reduction in the voting age.
He said he would be surprised if the STV voting system was not recommended but identified the boundaries of new constituencies as a key issue to be resolved.
Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies looked forward to seeing the report but said he did not think “people want to see the cost of politics increased”.
He said: “I think that’s going to be an interesting part of the debate and as Conservatives we certainly want to play our part in making sure that the cost of politics is reduced to the public purse but it will be worth digesting the evidence from the expert group to see what they’ve come up with and importantly allowing the public to have a say on the outcome of the report.”
Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds gave emphatic backing to a bigger Assembly, saying: “[We] have long advocated for electoral reform to make Welsh politics fairer and more representative.
“We believe that the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system is needed to make sure every vote counts, that the voting age for elections in Wales should be reduced to 16 and that the number of elected members should be increased to between 80 and 90.
“These steps will give the Wales the accountable and effective democracy it deserves.”
Llanelli’s Mr Waters put forward his preferred form of electoral reform, saying: “Let’s have a compulsory voting system where everybody has to take part; let’s have a fair voting system where every vote counts; and let’s have a system of political education for all ages which increases pupils’ feeling they are taking part in a knowledgeable way and let’s extend to 16-year-olds as part of that.”
AN INCREASE in the number of Assembly Members is expected to be recommended today when an expert panel publishes its report.
Back in 2004, the Richard Commission envisaged an 80-member Assembly with AMs elected by the Single Transferable Vote method of proportional representation.
If today’s report is the linchpin for reform, many people will say it is long overdue.
Since AMs first met together in 1999 they have won a raft of new powers and with that has come an increase in responsibility.
Even if every AM was a top talent they would be run ragged trying to fulfil basic tasks. Some members have the challenge of serving in government while others have the vital responsibility of scrutinising ministers, serving on committees and contributing to debates; all have to deal with their personal mountains of constituency casework while coping with the unique stresses that come with elected office.
Wales needs some of the brightest men and women from our communities to serve in the Assembly. The logic runs that increasing the number of AMs will widen the talent pool. Given the extent of the challenges facing Wales – and the entrenched nature of some of our deepest economic difficulties – there is clearly important work to be done and a need for people capable of incisive and courageous thinking.
No party leader can relish making the case for more politicians, not when hospitals across the country are struggling to recruit doctors and public sector workers long for a real pay rise.
It will be disastrous if an expansion of the Assembly is seen as an exercise in the political class extending its powers of patronage as party loyalists jump into wellpaid posts. While the case for increasing the number of AMs is compelling, one of the biggest worries in our democracy should be the number of people who vote in Assembly elections.
AMs are responsible for health and education and will soon have the power to vary your income tax. Why did only 45.3% of the electorate take part in last year’s election?
It should be a cause of deep concern if the majority of men and women across our nation think their votes have no impact on what unfolds in the Senedd.
Most of the people who serve in the Assembly are decent and hardworking individuals who want to serve their communities but the low turnout suggests that what goes on in that figurehead legislature can seem removed from the realities of daily life in Wales.
If our democracy is to be overhauled, we must do much more than find space for new seats in the Senedd. Ways must be found to forge bonds between the electors and the elected.
As the 20th anniversary of the foundation of the Assembly nears, the people of Wales deserve conclusive proof that devolution delivers a better quality of government than they could ever hope for under previous systems. For that, we need an Assembly where talent is present and unleashed.