Wales can’t afford a botched Brexit

BREXIT Secretary David Davis is one of the cheerier members of the cabinet and he has sought to inject some optimism into the next round of talks by insisting that an agreement on a transition deal which “maintains the key rights of the single market and customs union” is “doable” by March.

The teams on both sides of the negotiating table will need to come together in a spirit of goodwill and unity of purpose, and similar recognition of common interest will be required among the 27 remaining member states and within the Conservative Party.

The Bow Group, a Conservative think-tank, yesterday demanded there should be no divorce payment to the EU, adding that “no transition period should exist beyond March 2019”.

Mr Davis and Theresa May face the challenge of persuading both the Tory right and power brokers in the EU that things should continue pretty much as normal for around two years. But there will be wariness in Europe about arrangements that allow the UK to enjoy the benefits of membership while outside the club, and there will be suspicion within Westminster that once such a cosy partnership with the EU is established it would continue long into the future.

Mr Davis is highly ambitious about the ultimate deal he envisages the UK striking with the EU. A key goal is that Britain will enjoy not just free trade in goods, but crucially, services.

EU leaders will think twice before agreeing to a truly unfettered trading relationship with a country that is not even in a halfway-house arrangement such as Norway. The challenge is to convince negotiators and decisionmakers across Europe that this will be the most mutually beneficial outcome.

The economies of the UK and the EU need to up their game to meet the challenges of a global marketplace in which China is an increasingly dominant player. This is not the time to make it harder for any exporter, whether in Bridgend or Bruges, to survive.

One reason to hope that an unprecedented partnership might be possible is that it would not be a case of bringing the UK into closer alignment with the EU. Our economies are already fully integrated and our manufacturers today operate within the single market.

But anti-EU campaigners will be quick to condemn any deal which they argue falls short of full Brexit. Likewise, pro-EU activists will make the case that if we face economic peril by detaching ourselves from Europe then people should have a chance to think again about leaving this union.

Mrs May knows she cannot afford to ignore powerful eurosceptics in her party, yet she will also be aware that the success or failure of Brexit will determine her legacy. She was a quiet remainer at the time of the referendum but if she wants to unite her party, business, the country and Europe behind a vision of a new relationship between the UK and the EU she must campaign with a conviction, gusto and genius we have yet to witness.