Trump returns from holiday to start on lengthy to-do list
Millions of people will have groaned this week when they returned to work and saw the number of emails sitting in their inbox. But Donald Trump has a to-do list that would daunt any President. Not only does he have to avoid humiliation at the ballot box a
1. He has to avoid disaster on November 6
This could be the date when the wheels come off the Trump juggernaut.
Every member of the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and 39 Governors will be up for election. Mr Trump’s opponents will want to make this a referendum on his presidency.
He has a majority of just 51-49 in the Senate, following the iconic victory of Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama. Putting his stamp on America (such as by replacing the Obamacare healthcare reforms) will get much harder if the Republicans lose control of Congress.
A humiliation at the polls would also encourage his Republican critics to look for someone who could challenge him for the party’s presidential nomination in 2020.
2. He has to decide how to deal with a nuclear-armed North Korea
Kim Jong-un – the North Korean leader Mr Trump has called “little rocket man” – is seeking to make diplomatic capital out of the advances in his country’s nuclear programme.
He boasts that he now has a nuclear button on his desk and that the “entire United States” is within range of his missiles. This claim may be a profound exaggeration but it is not one the US will want to put to the test.
Meanwhile, Mr Jong-un is trying to drive a wedge between South Korea and its American ally. If it sends a delegation to the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang it will hope Seoul will respond by not going ahead with joint military exercises with the US.
Mr Trump will want to avoid looking outsmarted by a dictator in his mid-30s, and Americans will seek assurances they can sleep at night without fear of an ICBM hurtling out of the sky towards their city.
3. Trump needs a deal on immigration
One of the most emotive subjects in US politics is the future of around 700,000 people who were illegally brought to the country as children.
Many conservatives agree with liberals that it would be ethically abhorrent to deport people to a country they have never known.
Mr Trump faces a key decision: does he seek a way for these socalled “dreamers” to live and work legally in the US or does he appeal to the most extreme elements of his base and take the toughest of lines on immigration?
He continues to insist that a wall with Mexico is “desperately needed”. It is possible that pressing ahead with this hugely controversial project will buy him the political space to strike a bipartisan deal on dreamers. 4. Can he exploit the instability in Iran without tipping the country into chaos?
Mr Trump has responded to the street protests in Iran by all but calling for a new revolution, saying the “people of Iran are finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime”.
The US will be the loser if hardliners in the regime clamp down on the protests, imprison critics of the regime, oust moderates from government positions, and decide that instead of sticking with the nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration they would be better off following North Korea’s lead and rebooting their weapons programme.
Mr Trump is no fan of the nuclear deal and it will be up to Congress this year to certify whether Iran is compliant with its requirements. He also knows that Saudi Arabia would be delighted to see the US take a tougher line on Iran.
5. He needs to strike a deal on Government spending
If Congress fails to agree a spending bill by January 19 there is the threat of a partial shutdown of the US Government. This could be just the first financial headache he faces this year.
One of his bona fide achievements of 2017 was getting a swathe of tax cuts passed – corporation tax will fall from 35% to 21% – but Government revenues are expected to drop by $1.5 trillion over the next decade.
He came to the White House boasting of his plans for multi-billion dollar investment in infrastructure and the unveiling of proposals is thought to be imminent. Many Democrats will share his concern that the US is gaining a bad reputation for crumbling bridges and roads in urgent need of improvement, but fiscal conservatives in his own party will be spooked at the prospect of the federal government writing giant cheques.
6. He needs to manage relations with an old ally
Pakistan and the US have co-operated closely for decades but tensions burst into the open this week. Mr Trump said Pakistan had “given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools” and provided “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan”.
There is plenty of frustration with the US in Pakistan, where a general election is due to take place in July. It’s unclear whether Mr Trump’s Twitter outburst is intended to shape public debate in Pakistan or is in response to an intelligence briefing.
Either way, there will be nervousness in the diplomatic community if relations with this nuclear power sour and anti-western elements find it easier to win support.
7. There’s the issue of a trip to the UK
This won’t be one of the most pressing items on his agenda but relations with Britain, traditionally one of the United States’ closest allies, hit a dramatic low last year. Mr Trump, who is due to come here on a state visit at some point in his presidency, hectored Theresa May after she criticised him for retweeting an anti-Muslim video originally posted by a far-right group; he has also berated Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.
If he does want to drop by, he could turn up to open the new US embassy. But in an election year he might wish to avoid a visit to London which could feature giant street protests.