Will transport this year flow freely or be stuck in a jam?
WHAT will be our transport experience in 2018 – major changes or much of the same?
Wales’ commuters will continue to face traffic flows exceeding road capacity at several key locations. The M4 around Newport, with the longest queues, sees the Government’s Black Route further delayed to 2023 and costing £1.3bn – over double that of the FSB-supported Blue Route.
Some creative junction improvements at Cardiff (Junction 32/A470) and at Newport (Tredegar House, Junction 28) will improve traffic flow.
However, other roads give as much driver frustration though the size of the problem may be smaller – the M4 further west at Port Talbot (where redesigning junctions on the southern distributor road would attract more M4 traffic); north Swansea; the A465 Heads of the Valleys road (with increased capacity at Brynmawr); the cross-border A55/A494 and the Wrexham bypass in north-east Wales; and locally on the A487 into Aberystwyth and the A48 into Carmarthen.
These are primarily peak period delays and employers could help where possible by varying work times away from nine to five. It has also been suggested that the reduction in Severn Bridge tolls this week (and abolition in December) will increase car commuting along the M4.
Sophisticated traffic control indicators about alternative routes might also help. For major events, drivers can help themselves by arriving well before the start.
Of course, all of these measures have a downside – research since the 1970s has shown that improving road capacity encourages more traffic. Government policy has been to predict traffic flow and provide more capacity.
For many, when an attractive public transport option is provided, carusers will take it, but such is not offered throughout Wales.
On the railways, there is a mixed picture. A brand-new Inter-city express programme will be introduced on to all GWR services between south Wales and London during 2018, reducing journey time by 15 minutes. But I was disappointed when Secretary of State Alun Cairns telephoned me in Rhodes with the cancellation of electrification to Swansea.
The decision on the new train operator in March (hopefully) is the opportunity to improve Wales’ domestic railway, with the 2018 Wales and Borders rail re-franchise to begin in October, though currently the powers still remain with the UK Department for Transport. Investment in new trains, replacing our tired, largely 40-year-old rolling stock, should match the trains specified for ScotRail and Greater (East) Anglia and give Wales’ rail travellers their same quality railway. However, these will not arrive in October this year; the lead time for bi-modal extensions of existing production lines is two years, and for new diesel trains up to four years.
One hopes Transport for Wales has mandated new trains during the “competitive dialogue” process and in its invitation to final tender. How ironic it would be if the two new English franchises serving Wales – Cross Country and the West Coast Partnership – had new trains. Now is a good time to order new trains, with manufacturers short of orders after 2020 and Spanish company CAF bringing a train-building factory and jobs to Newport.
Bus services in Wales, with a few exceptions, have been losing passengers over the past year. This may be the result of reduced/withdrawn services or the over-60s who constitute over 40% of passengers transferring to their cars when fuel prices fell.
There have been successes such as the Government-owned TrawsCymru, First Cymru Clipper, Stagecoach Gold, Arriva Sapphire and NAT services. Companies also left the bus market in 2017 (GHA, Lewis Llanrhystud, Silcox, D Jones Wrexham).
To attract more passengers, surveys indicate a desire for integrated ticketing/timetables, higher frequencies and reliability. Integration legislation to satisfy the passengers and operators will not be an easy ride. Price is a passenger consideration, but for many not the most important – though fares discount schemes by the Government and bus companies have encouraged bus use.
For south Wales air travellers, the expansion of destinations from Cardiff Airport will be a welcome experience, especially if it avoids the longer journey to Bristol and the internal travel within London Heathrow Airport. Fares are also becoming more competitive with other airports. Birmingham and Manchester/Liverpool respectively will continue to serve mid and north Wales.
So while we have some attractive elements about to enter our railway and air transport travel experiences, there are other aspects of car and rail journeys where much is needed to remove a feeling of deja vu – the same old stuff.
Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy) at the University of South Wales.