Points make prizes... what Ospreys and Scarlets need for Euro joy
IT’S been a long wait to see the Welsh flag flying in the knockout stages of Europe’s premier club rugby tournament.
Six years, in fact, since Cardiff Blues were thumped 34-3 by Leinster in Dublin.
For the Ospreys, their last taste of a European Cup quarter-final was a bitter one, an epic loss to Biarritz in San Sebastian in 2010, while the breathtaking 2006-07 campaign that saw Phil Davies’ side reach the semifinals in Leicester is a distant memory for Scarlets fans.
Ahead of what promises to be a thrilling final two weekends of Champions Cup action, ROB LLOYD tries to do the maths and work out what needs to happen for the Scarlets and Ospreys to finally end their Euro drought...
SCARLETS
Remaining matches: Bath (away), Friday, Jan 12; Toulon (home), Saturday, Jan 20. Where they stand After losing their opening two matches, Wayne Pivac’s side have clawed their way into contention thanks to back-to-back bonus-point wins over Benetton in December.
The West Walians sit third in Pool 5 on 12 points, just a point behind Bath and Toulon, and if they win both of their remaining matches – at The Rec on Friday night and then Toulon in Llanelli the following Saturday - that should be enough for the defending PRO14 champions to top the pool. Will one win be enough? Defeat in the ‘rag doll’ match this weekend wouldn’t be the end for the Scarlets, but they would be clinging on by their fingernails.
As long as they don’t leave The Rec empty-handed, they can still overhaul Toulon if they beat the French side on the final weekend.
But they would have to beat them with a try bonus point at Parc y Scarlets and also stop the French side picking up any sort of bonus to finish above the three-time winners and snatch second in the pool.
Toulon are on 13 points already and you would expect them to reach at least 18 with winless Benetton the visitors to the Stade Mayol this weekend.
That would leave the Scarlets needing a minimum of six points from their two remaining matches to give themselves a chance of overhauling the French giants.
Similarly, a 5-0 match-points success against Bath and a losing bonus in defeat to Toulon, would see the Welsh side finish above their English rivals – even if Bath go on to hammer Benetton in Italy on the final weekend – by virtue of match points between the two sides.
OSPREYS
Remaining matches: Saracens (home) Saturday, Jan 13; Clermont Auvergne (away) Saturday, Jan 20. Where they stand Like the Scarlets, the Ospreys hauled themselves back from the precipice thanks to a maximum 10-point haul against Northampton Saints last month.
Remarkably, Steve Tandy’s side now find themselves in a position where they can knock out the defending champions if they beat Saracens in Swansea on Saturday evening.
With Clermont leading the way in Pool 2 on 18 points, the French side can all but confirm top spot if they beat Saints in the East Midlands on Saturday, although Les Jaunards have been hit by a horrendous run of injuries and were thumped 58-6 by Racing 92 in the Top14 on the weekend.