Doubts cast over future of large-scale lagoons
WITH just days to go before the anniversary of the Hendry review into tidal lagoons, doubts have been cast over plans for a future fleet of large-scale lagoons in the Severn estuary.
Environmental charity RSPB Cymru said that the policy of building a fleet of tidal lagoons in the estuary – as proposed by Swansea Bay lagoon developer Tidal Lagoon Power – was a “high-risk” one for nature.
And an article by Policy Exchange energy expert Matthew Rooney said that the cost of electricity from the larger lagoons might not come down as much as suggested – a central plank of the developer’s argument for financial support.
The independent Hendry report into tidal lagoon energy, published a year ago on Friday, gave a ringing endorsement to the technology.
But early hopes of imminent Government backing for the Swansea Bay lagoon failed to materialise and progress has stalled on discussions about financial support for the project.
Tidal Lagoon Power is still hopeful of movement on a subsidy, but in practice a simple declaration of intent to support lagoons would help lift the gloom that has descended on the project and reassure investors.
Tidal Lagoon Power has mobilised celebrities and political supporters to try to bring pressure on the Government to make a decision.
There was speculation that the Cabinet reshuffle earlier this week might lead to a change in leadership at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) with Greg Clark being replaced.
Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman tweeted that Mr Clark was seen by Downing Street officials as “utterly incapable of making a decision”.
In the event, he remained in his post – but whether his replacement would have removed the logjam is doubtful since any replacement might have needed time to come to their own view on the project.
Officials and the developer have been locked in talks for more than two years over the level of subsidy needed to make the lagoon financially viable. Tidal Lagoon Power has requested a 90-year contract for difference (CfD) with an average strike price of £89.90/MWh (per megawatt hour).
Although this would start at £123/ MWh in the first year, after 20 years it would drop to below the figure for the new nuclear power station at Hinckley Point – and at the end of the 90-year period it would be just £43/MWh.
Critics of the lagoon argue that these figures prove it is too expensive, but supporters argue that, on the contrary, it demonstrates why it should go ahead. Earlier offshore wind farms required strike prices of £150/MWh, but competition and developments in the technology have seen the costs more than halve.
The company maintains that larger follow-up lagoons at Cardiff, Newport, Bridgwater Bay, Colwyn Bay and Cumbria will see subsidy prices come down to the sort of figures now being seen for offshore wind farms.
But Mr Rooney, writing on the Business Green website, argued that cost reductions might be less than predicted because each lagoon had to be considered as a standalone infrastructure project and earlier projections did not take into account possible budget overruns.
The Hendry review said there should be competitive tendering to build the later projects.
One possibility is that the Government might indicate its support for lagoons and require Tidal Lagoon Power to accept a lower strike price for the Swansea lagoon.
If that happens, it’s likely that the effect would be felt on the supply chain. The Times reported before Christmas that 1,000 engineering jobs were at risk in the Midlands at two GE plants that had been expected to build turbines and power systems for the Swansea lagoon.
The RSPB’s comments – made in response to the draft of the Welsh Government’s National Marine Plan – are a reminder that each individual project will need to survive possibly hostile scrutiny by environmentalists and other interests as it battles to win planning consent.
The RSPB is concerned about the effect of large-scale lagoons, and the combined effect of multiple lagoons, on mudflat and saltmarsh habitats that support migratory birds.
A fleet of such lagoons in the Severn estuary could potentially affect protected sites that between them hold 300,000 wintering birds.
Director of RSPB Cymru Katie-Jo Luxton said: “The Welsh Government’s own assessment shows that their tidal lagoon policy is extremely high-risk for nature and could damage some of our most important wildlife sites, including over 50 protected sites for birds, yet the policy supports lagoons with very limited caveats.
“It is clear Wales needs to find renewable energy solutions, but this should not be to the detriment of the natural environment we depend on, and RSPB research shows that it doesn’t have to be.”
A spokeswoman for Tidal Lagoon Power said: “Through the pathfinder tidal lagoon at Swansea Bay and the evidence plan process adopted for the environmental assessment of Cardiff Tidal Lagoon, we have established a good and valued working relationship with RSPB Cymru.
“Regarding the draft Wales National Marine Plan, it is entirely appropriate for Welsh Government to include policy that allows lagoons to be considered alongside other sources of low-carbon electricity – lagoons will have to make their case, but without policies that are supportive in principle and provide a decision-making framework for dealing with impacts, options would be inappropriately and prematurely restricted.”
The National Maritime Plan was due to be debated in the National Assembly last night.