Wales deserves to see Brexit analysis

THE leak of a Government assessment of the impact of Brexit on the different regions of the UK comes as Theresa May and cabinet colleagues try to hammer out an agreed end-goal for the Brexit negotiations.

It will be seen as an attempt to keep the UK in a much closer relationship with the EU than many Brexit-enthusiast MPs and campaigners want.

One pro-Brexit MP yesterday evening compared the analysis to a horoscope.

Nevertheless, the public deserve to know that this assessment showed that every part of the UK is predicted to be worse off under a range of Brexit scenarios.

Anyone who cares about their job and the prosperity of their friends, relatives and neighbours will sit up when they see that Wales’ GDP is forecast to take a 9.5% hit over 15 years if there is no deal.

This compares with a reduction of 5.5% if there is a free trade agreement or 1.5% if Wales stays in the single market.

When the worst-case scenario is one that could push households into unemployment and stamp on the best efforts of anyone who has tried to grow a business or improve their family’s livelihood, it merits attention and should not be dismissed as a product of the “project fear” factory.

A majority of people in Wales and England voted to leave the EU but the referendum paper did not give people a list of options about what type of relationship they wanted with the remaining 27 member states post-Brexit. It is by no means a betrayal of the Brexit vote to seek a deal that will minimise the pain that families could experience.

It is also true that predictions – especially ones which cover a period defined by uncertainty – can be very wrong. There are other economists and analysts of conviction and intelligence who believe that the changes the UK will make as a result of leaving the EU will put it on the road to greater prosperity than if we stay in the union or are joined at its hip through membership of the single market and the customs union.

There is a vital debate to be had and people of integrity and goodwill can come to different conclusions. But it is critical for the good of our country, our democracy and our economy that this conversation takes place and influences the negotiations.

The destiny of Wales and the rest of the UK cannot be stitched up behind closed doors and determined by the internal politics of one party.

Likewise, people who take different positions should not be demonised or slandered. We need a deal that will work for the radically different regions of the UK and this will not happen if dissenting voices are silenced.

We need to embrace reason and approach the complex surgical procedure of removing Britain from the EU with the same principle that is drilled into medical professionals: first, do no harm.

An analysis which suggests there is potential to do harm deserves to be seen, studied and debated.