Sharp increase in jobless but number in work also grows
THE number of people without work in Wales has jumped by 14,000 as unemployment around the UK rose by the largest amount in nearly five years in the three months to December.
The quarterly increase in Wales was 23.5%, bringing the total number without work to 76,000, a figure not exceeded for nearly three years.
The unemployment rate in Wales was among the highest among UK nations and regions at 5%, only exceeded by the West Midlands, the North East of England and the Yorkshire and Humber region.
But despite the rise in joblessness, the number of people in work also increased by 10,000 to 1.44 million, an increase of 0.7% over the previous quarter.
The apparently contradictory figures are explained by a fall in the number of people defined as economically inactive to 40.2% of over 16-year-olds.
First Minister Carwyn Jones said: “It is encouraging that our employment rate has risen over the past quarter, and economic inactivity in Wales has fallen. However, given the wider climate of economic uncertainty it is essential that we continue to do all we can to drive up employment levels and support Welsh companies to prosper and grow. Measures such as the export conference that we hosted last week are a practical example of steps we are taking as a government to support businesses through this uncertain period.”
The Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns said the unemployment increase showed there is “no room for complacency in the effort to safeguard Wales’ path to prosperity” and added that the UK Government was “working hard to create the right conditions for investment and job creation in Wales.”
He added: “We must ensure that we maintain close relations with businesses on the ground in Wales and work closely with the Welsh Government to explore every growth and trade opportunity we have to create jobs now and for the future.”
Plaid Cymru Shadow Cabinet Secretary for the Economy Adam Price said the figures made a mockery of the Welsh Government’s pledge to deliver prosperity for all.
He added: “Just six months ago the unemployment rate here was 4% but it has been creeping up ever since and has now overtaken the UK average.
“There is immediate action that the Labour Welsh Government could and should be taking to tackle this problem.
“As well as spreading investment to all parts of the country in order to boost local economies and generate jobs, the government should be revising its procurement policy. Research shows that for every 1% increase in Welsh procurement, up to 2,000 jobs will be created.
“We urgently need the Labour government to inject some ambition and imagination into its currently failing economic plan.”
Across the UK there were 1.47 million people out of work in the quarter to December 2017, an increase of 46,000, giving a jobless rate of 4.4%.
The quarterly rise was the biggest since early 2013, although unemployment is 123,000 lower than a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Despite the increase - the first jobless jump since the summer of 2016 the number of people in work increased by 88,000 to 32.1 million.
Other figures revealed that the number of non-UK nationals from outside the EU working in this country fell by 68,000 to 1.17 million in the quarter to last December compared with the previous year.
The number of non-UK nationals from EU countries working in this country increased by 101,000 to 2.35 million, the smallest rise since 2013.
The number of workers on zerohours contracts in their main job fell by 4,000 to 901,000 in the quarter to last December compared with the previous year.
The claimant count, which includes people on Jobseeker’s Allowance and the unemployment element of Universal Credit, fell by 7,200 last month to 823,000. Average earnings increased by 2.5% in the year to December, unchanged from the previous month.
ONS statistician Matt Hughes said: “While this is the sharpest increase in the unemployment level ONS has seen in almost five years, the number of people in work has continued to rise and there are fewer economically inactive people.
“Earnings continue to grow more slowly than prices.
“Rising employment this past year was largely driven by UK nationals. In particular, fewer citizens from eastern European countries were in work than in the year before.
“It’s important to remember these figures simply look at the number of people in work, and aren’t a measure of migration.”
STATISTICS can shock but a line on a graph cannot convey the emotions and challenges felt by a family in the throes of sudden change.
The rise in Welsh unemployment to 5% is awkward for ministers in Cardiff and Whitehall. The figures are going in the wrong direction, and Wales now has a higher joblessness rate than the UK as a whole (4.4%).
For every family with a loved one on the dole there is a pulse of anxiety and frustration running though everyday life. Some will have real worries about how to pay the rent or the mortgage; mums and dads may be exploring how to get help from a food bank.
The research shows that 76,000 people were out of work between October and December – 9,000 more than the same time last year.
Welsh unemployment was below the UK average for much of 2016 but now it has one of the highest rates of people out of work in the country.
If the dole queues continue to lengthen in the coming months there will be real fears that something is going badly wrong in the economy.
During the recent period of low unemployment Wales has not felt like a tiger economy. People have been glad to be in work, but a combination of chronic wage stagnation and the effects of austerity on public services has left nobody with the sense this is a nation flush with cash.
When politicians talk about households in which people feel they are “just about managing” they could be describing families the length and breadth of Wales. When it is hard enough to make ends meet while holding down a job, the prospect of unemployment is downright terrifying.
Financial pressures can drive stress and tension through family relationships and unemployment can make people more vulnerable to health problems. Think tanks have highlighted the deep problem of in-work poverty, but the threat of more people experiencing the double-anguish of unemployment and poverty is one every decisionmaker and policy generator needs to take seriously.
In normal circumstances, we could take cheer from signs of robust growth in key international economies. Ministers could crack on with trying to boost investor confidence in a bid to ensure the country shares in the success. Instead, Britain is braced for the biggest national disruption in decades. We are due to leave the European Union in March 2019 but there is no consensus about the relationship the UK should seek with the world’s biggest free trade area; Theresa May is striving to unite her party around a common vision she will then seek to negotiate with the EU.
There is important work to be done and vital debates to be had about how Britain can raise its game in a global economy that is about to be transformed by automation, robotics and artificial intelligence. But any party seen to put ideological obsessions and partisan ambitions above the welfare of our nation’s poorest will be disgraced.