20 years on from the Good Friday Agreement, where next for Northern Ireland ?
The Good Friday Agreement is a reminder that prayers can be answered and that walls of division can come tumbling down, writes political editor David Williamson. Northern Ireland deserves leaders who will honour the hopes of 1998
THE people who worked though long and fraught nights to secure the Good Friday Agreement can today look back on this breakthrough in the peace process with pride.
In the eyes of the world it transformed Northern Ireland from the scene of atrocities into a place where incredible things happen.
A province until then notorious for violence and bigotry became one of the world’s go-to case studies in reconciliation.
Today, Northern Ireland is a destination for Game of Thrones fans who want to visit the many ethereal locations from the iconic fantasy series. But in 1998 it was the setting for something approaching political magic.
This beautiful but divided part of the island seemed locked in a cycle of killing and recrimination. But the agreement unlocked an opportunity for revolution by the people of Ireland.
In emphatically voting in the referendum in the following month for a deal that enshrined the principle of consent, citizens sent an incontrovertible message to the men and women of violence that they had no mandate to continue campaigns of murder.
Likewise, the scale of the Yes vote – 71.12% in the North and 94.39% in the South – gave politicians an almighty push to deliver on the agreement and make peaceful power-sharing a reality.
These were exciting times and Northern Ireland has known a degree of peace that seemed out of reach in the worst decades of violence. To this extent – and this is the most important measure by which the Good Friday Agreement can be judged – it has proven a success.
Yes, the political leaders who put their credibility on the line by first endorsing the agreement and then going into power with former adversaries deserve immense credit.
But it should not be forgotten that ordinary voters – men and women who never got to enjoy a well-paid job at Stormont or a ride in a ministerial limo – were prepared to swallow very bitter pills in pursuit of peace.
Voters gave the go-ahead to a deal which saw convicted killers walk out of prison, sometimes to a hero’s welcome. The prison doors were opened long before terrorist groups got rid of their weapons.
It was not until 2005 that the IRA announced it had completed the “process of putting arms beyond use”.
It was no easy thing for families of the victims of IRA violence to see Martin McGuinness installed as Education Minister in 1999. But it is tribute to the strength with which people in both communities embraced a shared future that they never turned their backs on the agreement.
Respect is also due to Irish nationalists who longed for an end to partition on the island but who backed an agreement that saw the Republic relinquish its territorial claims on the North.
The story of modern Ireland is a bold reminder that the people of a society should not be judged by intransigent demagogues who claim to speak in their name. In this case, families who had suffered much embraced a bold and risky journey of change and did not look back.
Today, these great men and women deserve political leaders who have integrity, courage and vision – qualities which seem in short supply right now.
Power-sharing has collapsed and in February the DUP said there was “no current prospect” of a deal that would see it go back into power with Sinn Fein.
The DUP is enjoying its clout in Westminster, where the Conservatives have won its support in the Commons in return for a £1bn deal. Sinn Fein is energetically pursuing its political ambitions in the Republic under the new leadership of Mary Lou McDonald.
One of the unforeseen developments of the past two decades is that the moderate nationalist and unionist parties led by Nobel Prizewinners John Hume and David Trimble, respectively, were utterly eclipsed by groups that used to be referred to as “hard liners”.
The lack of leadership means there is the risk that many of those who were bereaved or injured during the Troubles may pass away long before there is any credible truth and reconciliation process.
An immediate concern is that the province lacks a democratically accountable government to attend to urgent issues in health and education. It also means there are no Stormont ministers to join Welsh and Scottish counterparts at talks about key Brexit legislation.
This is at a time when there is high concern about the consequences of Northern Ireland being taken out of the EU, despite a majority of voters backing remaining in the union. It would be a public relations triumph for opponents of the peace process if it becomes harder to cross the border.
Tony Blair, who as a young Labour Prime Minister joined with his Irish opposite number to get the Good Friday Agreement sealed and delivered, is adamant that with the political will a breakthrough can once again be achieved.
He said: “I can’t believe we can’t find a way through this if we really wanted to. My strong advice to the Prime Minister and Government is just work at this until you sort it out, because from what I am reading I can’t see anything which is an absolute barrier to sorting it out.”
George Mitchell, the former US special envoy to Northern Ireland, had a starker message for the UK and Irish PMs, Theresa May and Leo Varadkar, saying: “What I do urge them is to recognise what is at stake here. It is the futures of their economies, it is the possibility of resumption of conflict, of a reversion back to the time that nobody wants to go back to except for a very tiny fringe element on both sides.”
Today’s commemoration of 1998’s political and diplomatic triumph should be a spur for action. Politicians who have enjoyed lucrative careers in the past two decades own nothing less to the 2.1 million people on both sides of the border who showed the world just how much they wanted to see peace.