Word from England is ominous Brexit omen
WITH less than a year to go until we are out of the EU, the noise coming from across the border in England, according to one Welsh Government adviser, doesn’t bode well for agriculture.
Dr Ludivine Petetin, who specialises in food and farming law at Cardiff University’s policy department and advises the Welsh Government, told a Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust (GWCT) meeting in March that “it seems to me... Defra has made a choice that the 25% of farms which are at the bottom and are not doing very well will perhaps disappear.”
If that is true, then the repercussions of losing one in every four English farming families will be dire, not only for those who go under, but also for all the many secondary businesses which rely on agriculture as well as our rural communities as a whole.
And if most of the 25% live in one area – for example England’s uplands – then the impact will be even worse because it will be concentrated.
Thankfully our own minister, Lesley Griffiths, has said she wants to keep Wales’ land managers “on the land” – but her statement that targeted support to help farmers compete in a global marketplace will only be provided “where economic production is possible” can be read in both positive and negative ways. It could even mean something similar to what Dr Petetin implied about the Defra position.
In fact, wherever you look there are policy statements on the brave new world of future agricultural policies, exciting trade opportunities and so on, any one of which could be seen as a candy-wrapped disaster for Wales.
Take the UK Government’s discussions with Australia on a postBrexit trade deal, for example. It’s been reported that Australia will be arguing for beef produced from hormone-injected cattle to be allowed on to our supermarket shelves – something which would undermine our own farmers and compromise our ability to access EU markets. What a mess!
Take also the arguments over the UK’s future membership of a customs union with the EU to ease the flow of trade over borders – particularly in Northern Ireland.
There is quite rightly recognition on both sides of the need to replace our current membership of the EU Customs Union with one which allows goods to flow freely to our major markets on the continent.
But read between the lines and you will hear talk of agricultural products being left out of such an agreement.
Alarm bells should start ringing when we consider the motives for leaving agricultural produce out of a customs union.
The likelihood is – and this appears to be hinted at in Defra’s recent consultation document as well – that agricultural products may be left out of a deal specifically to allow liberal access to our food market to be a bargaining chip in negotiations with Canada and other countries.
I fear that what is unfolding in front of our eyes is exactly what the FUW warned would happen if we left the EU, and we must not underestimate the dangers we now face.
Wherever you look there are policy statements on the brave new world of future agricultural policies, exciting trade opportunities and so on, any one of which could be seen as a candy-wrapped disaster for Wales...