Protect Wales’ interests before EU curtain falls
Mick Antoniw, Pontypridd AM, looks at the ramifications of Brexit for Wales and the part Labour can play in securing our future
LIKE tens of thousands of others, I was angry about the referendum vote to leave the EU.
Angry, not just at the result, but the way it was achieved, through a campaign characterised by some of the worst bigotry and prejudice I have ever heard, sweetened by promises of a bottomless bucket of money for the NHS and just about anything you could want – all the ills of society blamed on the EU and if only we left suddenly everything would change for the better.
My anger has now turned to dismay at the billions now being spent on the arrangements for leaving the EU and the realisation by most people now that they were sold a pup.
I am also saddened that despite all this, despite all the adverse economic forecasts and warnings I sense that the political mood in the country appears to have changed very little.
In the immediate aftermath of the referendum I fancifully believed that once people realised they had been conned they would demand a second referendum. No such luck.
Instead, the debate has become increasingly polarised. The EU leavers have become more intransigent, shouting betrayal at the suggestion of any concession towards the EU over a leaving deal, while some remainers demand a second referendum.
Most of the population, however, seem to have had enough of Brexit, appear more confused than ever, and like a dose of flu, just want to get it all over with.
For politicians, businesses and society at large, this is not a good place to be. There are major issues to be resolved which will impact on our future prosperity and national integrity.
As negotiations move to an advanced stage it is time for us to get real about Brexit, recognise it is likely to happen and to focus on the most important issues that will impact on the UK’s economic fortune and constitutional stability, if it is to survive the next decade.
Access to the single market is crucial. We should stop playing word games over “membership” as opposed to “access”. It doesn’t matter what the wording is, we need a trade arrangement which allows us to trade freely with the EU without bureaucratic barriers and without tariffs.
If this means joining the customs union or some other similar bespoke arrangement, or through EFTA or the EEA, then so be it. Without it, Wales will suffer disproportionately. Our manufacturing base is heavily dependent on industries such as automotive and aerospace. Much of our agricultural produce and most of our seafood is sent to Europe. Any deal which cannot deliver this will have dire economic consequences for Wales economically and for our future economic prospects.
Labour is not in government and is not party to the negotiations. Nevertheless, Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit minister, has played his hand masterfully. The country may be divided over Brexit but the six key principles for support of the final deal command widespread support.
They also provide a focus for unity across the nations of the UK. Access to the single market or a customs union being the most important, but also the rights of EU citizens, workers’ rights and replacement of EU funding.
Unless Theresa May delivers on these there is no guarantee she can win a vote in Parliament on the overall deal and Labour will vote against the deal.
The proposed Clause 5 rebel Tory amendment to the Trades Bill which will commit to seeking access to a customs union will be her first major test. There is then the constitutional issue. Incompetent handling of the EU Withdrawal Bill has resulted so far in a political stalemate over what happens to the powers which relate to devolved matters currently residing in Brussels. To overrule and ride roughshod over the devolved governments would be a political and constitutional disaster leading to further UK destabilisation and possibly a further independence referendum in Scotland.
As if that wasn’t enough, there is also a desperate need to develop new post-Brexit inter-governmental structures. An unprecedented unanimous joint statement from an inter-parliamentary forum of Constitutional and Legislative Committees for Westminster, the House of Lords, Scotland and Wales has called for a new structure to replace the existing Joint Ministerial Council, which it describes as “not fit for purpose”.
There is growing support for a radically reformed JMC Council of Ministers, properly funded and supported to manage the various post-Brexit frameworks which will need to be established.
Then there will be the final Brexit deal to be voted on in Parliament. If this fails there will have to be a general election.
If sufficient cross-party support cannot be secured to win either of these, the prospect of winning a vote allowing for a second referendum is remote, let alone the very uncertain prospect of actually winning a second referendum.
At this moment in time Labour’s role as the official opposition is to constructively oppose and to propose alternatives. The reality is that Brexit is going to happen, so we must focus on ensuring our economic interests are protected by the best single market access deal that can be obtained. If Theresa May cannot deliver this it is the duty of Parliament to vote down her deal.