Carwyn Jones’ departure could be the trigger for bigger change
AVERY different type of politics could take root in the Senedd when Carwyn Jones stands down as First Minister.
Rhodri Morgan played the role of father of the nation with a unique charisma, and Mr Jones has displayed a rare self-assuredness whether he is in Downing Street, at a Labour shindig or under studio lights.
Party leaders in Westminster have to put up with rumours of ambitious rivals plotting to dislodge them from the top spot almost from day one.
But Mr Morgan was able to choose the time of his departure, and Mr Jones has never had to deal with a Gordon Brown figure – a looming presence who longs to seize the reins.
Both Mr Morgan and Mr Jones would look at opposition leaders during First Minister’s Questions with an expression flickering between amusement and impatience, as if they were asking: “Do you seriously think you could do this job?”
They could talk about rugby with the same fluency – in English and Welsh – with which they discussed the economy. Each was confident that they understood the nation beyond Cardiff Bay and that Labour was Wales’ natural party of government.
Mr Morgan had spent his life intellectually ahead of his peers and Bridgend AM Mr Jones had been marked out for years as an obvious leadership contender. There was a sense of inevitably that this Bridgend AM would take over, and he won more than half the votes in the threeway leadership contest of 2009.
Many AMs will have welcomed the stability the Assembly has known under their leadership. The early days of Welsh devolution were filled with turmoil, drama and controversy – so much so that the future of the project sometimes seemed uncertain.
Mr Morgan steadied the ship and on Mr Jones’ watch Westminster has transferred bundles of powers. Devolutionists in other parties could also appreciate the value of charismatic First Ministers in getting it into people’ heads that Wales has its own system of government and can run its own affairs without Westminster oversight.
The two men were happy playing paterfamilias figures, but Mr Jones’ successor could strike a very different figure in the Senedd and around the nation – and Wales may be ready for a new approach.
Labour activists will not be looking for the cuddliest character to lead the party, but someone who can deliver social progress and maintain faith in public services at a time of rising populism. They have seen how Scottish Labour was brought low by the SNP and will want to avoid a similar fate.
The nation’s public sector has been tested by years of austerity and letters from constituents will leave Labour AMs in no doubt about the need to find solutions to the problems in the NHS and social care. Whoever wants to be considered for the top job will have to prove he or she can use the powers of devolution to drive up standards of services.
Nearly two decades of self-government in Wales have failed to lift the nation’s workers from the bottom of earnings league table and productivity in some areas is truly dire. There is little reason to hope for dramatic improvement so long as Wales’ schoolchildren are outperformed by UK and international counterparts in core areas such as science, maths and reading.
The next First Minister will need a programme for radical skills upgrades – even if this risks antagonising powerful interests in the education sector.
Candidates will not be able to sit on the fence when it comes to support for the proposed M4 relief road and the development of the South Wales Metro.
They will be asked how they plan to use new income tax powers and pressed for details on how they will promote affordable housing. At a time when the ideological divisions in the Labour movement have not been so stark for years, candidates will be expected to set out manifestos rich in specifics.
The culture of the Senedd could also change. Mr Morgan and Mr Jones were astonishingly effective at ensuring internal dissent stayed behind closed doors. At times – especially when compared with Labour in Westminster – it has seemed as if the party group and not just the cabinet observed collective responsibility. But in the wake of Carl Sargeant’s death, attention has focused on how decisions are made and who influences that process.
Backbenchers have every right to ensure that their voices, as elected representatives, carry at least as much influence as civil servants, aides and lobbyists.
The executive’s ability to keep rank-and-file AMs in line with the prospect of patronage will diminish if the number of people elected to the Senedd is increased beyond the present 60. Just as in Westminster, there are independently-minded MPs whose mission is to hold governments of any colour to account through powerful committees, so the Assembly could soon be strengthened by the presence of AMs who are as interested in scrutiny on behalf of their communities as in career advancement.
Such men and women will keep Mr Jones’ successor on his or her toes and will be tempted to make a bid for the First Ministership themselves if they feel the party and the country are being let down.
Welsh Labour politics may be about to become livelier, more independent and more competitive.
This could all be for the good of Wales. The nation would benefit from a more raucous and attentive Assembly where, instead of tapping at their keyboards during plenary sessions, members of all parties took a zero-tolerance approach to sophistry and humbug.
The sheer diversity of potential candidates for the leadership race is bracing. None of them is (at least at present) a Napoleonic figure and each would represent the start of a new chapter in the Wales’ devolution story.
The race is an opportunity for everyone of all parties and none to think about the toughest challenges facing Wales and the type of change the country needs. Welsh Labour will want to reboot itself, but all of Wales can hope that this will be part of a wider moment of renewal.