How Swans could be safe in ten days’ time
IF you were a Swansea City fan watching Carlos Carvalhal’s men shipping five goals at Manchester City on Sunday, then it’s fair to say you would have left the Etihad fully expecting this Premier League survival battle to go down to the wire, writes Andrew Gwilym.
Fixtures against Southampton and Stoke – the two sides directly below Swansea – at the Liberty in the final week of the season look all set to be nerve-shredding, nail-biting affairs.
But, believe it or not, the Swans could actually have survival all sewn up before Mark Hughes’ Saints make the trip to South Wales on Tuesday, May 8.
In fact, the Welsh club would be toasting an eighth straight season of top-flight football as soon as a week on Saturday.
Here, we look at the sequence of results that would ensure the bestcase scenario for the Swans.
While other sides remain involved in the relegation battle, we will focus on Stoke and Southampton as Swansea’s quickest route to safety is based on opening a large enough gap to those two clubs...
Saturday, April 28: Liverpool v Stoke, Southampton v Bournemouth, Swansea v Chelsea
DESPITE their Etihad hiding, Swansea retain a four-point advantage over the chasing pack and a win this weekend could potentially spell instant demotion to the Championship for one of their rivals.
They and Southampton have four games remaining, Stoke have just three, which means that the Potters can be relegated this weekend.
If Paul Lambert’s men lose at Liverpool and Swansea were to continue their fine home form by beating Chelsea in SA1 then a seven-point gap would be too much for the Potters to overhaul with just two games of the season.
Even if Stoke were to come away from Anfield with a point, a Swansea win would open up a six-point gap.
That would leave Joe Allen and company needing to win both remaining games – including their trip to the Liberty on the final day – with Swansea losing all remaining games just to draw level.
Even then, there would need to be a goal difference swing of nine in Stoke’s favour for them to leapfrog the Swans, and Lambert has himself said his side probably need to win all their remaining games to stand a chance.
Should Southampton lose their south coast derby against Bournemouth they would also fall seven points adrift of the Welsh club should Antonio Conte’s team fall to defeat.
The Saints would still have three games remaining, but would not be able to afford to lose any of their remaining games.
West Brom’s relegation will be confirmed if they do not beat Newcastle prior to Swansea’s tea-time kick-off against last season’s champions.
Saturday, May 5: Stoke v Crystal Palace, Everton v Southampton, Bournemouth v Swansea
EVEN if Stoke manage to beat Liverpool, a Swansea win over Chelsea would leave them needing to better Swansea’s result on the penultimate weekend to keep the battle alive, although cutting the gap to three points would probably not be enough given the goal difference situation. It would be win or bust for them, provided they are still in the survival hunt.
Should Southampton have a seven-point gap to make up, they would also need to better Swansea’s result at Bournemouth when they face Everton at Goodison Park in the late kick-off.
A defeat would leave the margin at a minimum of seven points and would end Hughes’ hopes of keeping the Saints in the top flight, whilst confirming Swansea’s survival.
A draw could be enough to take the fight to the last week and that midweek clash at the Liberty, but Swansea would have to lose and the south coast club would have to win both remaining games with Swansea failing to pick up another point.
All remaining fixtures SWANSEA: Chelsea (h), Bournemouth (a), Southampton (h), Stoke (h). SOUTHAMPTON: Bournemouth (h), Everton (a), Swansea (a), Manchester City (h). STOKE: Liverpool (a), Crystal Palace (h), Swansea (a).