A storm of change is on the horizon

THE Conservatives had a terrible run-up to the local government elections in England.

The Windrush scandal left the Home Office looking incompetent at best and callous at worst. News that many thousands of women had not been invited for breast cancer screening came just as the parties made their final pitches to voters.

These fiascos unfolded amid reports of divisions at the highest levels of the government over the future relationship the country should seek with the EU. These were far from ideal electoral conditions.

But not only was a meltdown avoided, the party gained control of some councils. Labour, meanwhile, can celebrate becoming the largest party in Trafford in Greater Manchester and winning control of Plymouth.

The results suggest the surge in support for Labour seen in the closing stages of last year’s election has levelled off.

In England the Conservatives enjoyed some success in winning the support of former Ukip voters. In the next Welsh elections Labour campaigners will work to win over people who backed Ukip in this nation’s former industrial communities.

Tacticians for both Labour and the Tories will pore over the results in search of niche groups of voters to target to edge up their vote share and clutch a majority.

But everyone is also aware that the politics of the UK could be transformed by the time the country next goes to the polls. The PM will face a political crisis if she cannot hold her party together on Brexit, if she fails to get her flagship legislation through parliament in an acceptable form, and if any hope of securing a deal with the EU on a host of controversial issues evaporates.

There is speculation that political turmoil could force a general election. Once the country is out of the EU there will be epic debates about trade deals and what rules should govern the relations between the different UK nations.

It is entirely possible the Tories will stage a leadership election, triggering a public debate about Britain’s post-Brexit identity. Meanwhile Labour will attempt to put the anti-semitism controversy behind it and Jeremy Corbyn’s team will work to win support for modern socialism.

English voters may have opted to keep something close to the status quo in place but the country is steaming into a storm of change.