‘Elections and referendums are messy and unpredictable but not things to be scared of’
JEREMY Corbyn boasts Labour is “absolutely ready” to fight another general election. This is what he used to say in the early days of Theresa May’s premiership, back when Downing Street stamped on notions she might go for a snap election.
Now, when the Labour leader talks about the country going to the polls, you sense he really does believe that another election might culminate in him winning the keys to No 10.
Last year’s contest saw Labour’s vote share jump by 9.5 points to 40%, just behind the Conservatives on 42.4%.
A contest that was intended to hand Mrs May a thumping majority instead transformed Mr Corbyn’s position and sent Labour speeding in a leftwards direction. Instead of being humiliated at the polls, Labour picked up 30 new seats and leftwingers now enjoy a tight grip on party machinery.
Last week’s local government elections were a disappointment for Labour, largely because expectations were so high, but activists across the UK would relish a chance to make another push for power. Mr Corbyn’s fans talk of how if the 2017 campaign had continued just a little longer they might have won the election.
This fear of a socialist government taking power is the key reason why Conservatives who are terrified of the nation lurching left will do everything possible to avoid another vote. The next election is not due until 2022 and in normal times the plan would be to hunker down, try not to alienate the public, hope that the economy will improve and look for a telegenic leader who could trade places with Mrs May at a reasonable distance before polling day.
But these are not normal times. One of the biggest events in our postwar national life – yes, Brexit – is unfolding and MPs of different stripes are torn between loyalty to their party and loyalty to the country.
Elections have been called, and governments have fallen, on lesser issues. The already febrile atmosphere in Westminster will only grow more fraught when votes on the most controversial legislation can be put off no longer; it may be unlikely but it is by no means impossible that we may have to make another trip to the polling station.
If Tory rebels facilitate a calamitous defeat for Mrs May on the customs union, the scene would be set for a vote of no confidence and an election. An attempt to go for a “no deal” Brexit could also culminate in this scenario.
There appear to be attempts to scare MPs with the prospect of the PM herself pushing for a summer election.
A “Brexit-backing minister” was quoted in the Express as saying: “She may need to call a Brexit election to settle this once and for all. We need to make life uncomfortable for Remain-backing MPs who represent constituencies that voted Leave.”
Election guru John Curtice noted in the wake of last week’s English council elections that “something like 70%” of the Conservative vote consists of people who voted Leave in the referendum. Just as some centrist Labour MPs worry about attempts to deselect them by leftwingers, Tories who favour a close relationship with Europe might fret that local branches would try to replace them ahead of polling day with avowedly anti-EU candidates.
Back in September, a Morgan Stanley briefing surfaced which predicted that the cabinet and the Conservative Party would this year be split on the UK’s future relationship with the EU and this would “lead to a loss of a vote of no confidence in Parliament, triggering early elections”.
The prospect of an election to resolve a political crisis on an issue of profound importance reeks of instability and would send jitters through the markets, but there’s a solid argument that it should not be seen as a source of shame. This is what happens when democraticallyelected representatives cannot solve an issue facing the country – they go back to the citizens to whom they are accountable in an election.
We are used to having long gaps between general elections, while on the other side of the Atlantic presidential and congressional contests follow a fixed timetable.
But fixed-term parliaments in the UK are a new-fangled innovation dating from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition and, as Mrs May herself demonstrated, it is not hard to get an early election by securing the required two-thirds vote in the Commons. Any opposition leader who refused to support the motion would look frightened of losing.
As Tom Quinn noted in Prospect magazine: “There have been numerous occasions when UK general elections were held in quick succession. In 1910, there were elections in January and December, amid a constitutional crisis after the House of Lords had vetoed David Lloyd George’s ‘people’s budget’...
“There were general elections in consecutive years in 1922, 1923 and 1924... Clement Attlee’s post-war Labour government also called elections in consecutive years, in 1950 and 1951.”
Let’s not forget there were two elections in 1974 alone. Today’s citizens are unlikely to resent being asked to cast a vote on the future of the country; in fact, they might appreciate it if politicians consult them on the nuances of Brexit.
An alternative to an election (which might deliver a very similar result to last year’s contest) would be to hold another referendum. No, not a re-run of 2016’s – it wouldn’t have to include an option of staying in the EU, although there is a decent case for doing so – but one that listed credible models of Brexit.
This would give the people a definitive say on whether they want to remain in the Customs Union. MPs would have their marching orders and Brussels would be confronted with the explicit will of the electorate.
Elections and referendums are messy and unpredictable, but not things to be scared of.
It’s the alternatives to democracy which are truly terrifying.