Not another one! Why there’s talk of an election this autumn
What happens if Tory divisions widen and the UK Government can’t pass its landmark Brexit legislation? Theresa May could face a vote of no confidence with the potential to pave the way to a general election,
IT IS less than a year since the UK last went to the polls but there is talk of Conservative MPs preparing for an autumn election as the party wrestles over the final shape of Brexit.
The prospect of another snap election is unlikely to have voters dancing in the streets. But the country is in uncharted territory and in the coming showdown in the Commons MPs will weigh their loyalty to their party against their devotion to their country.
How could a general election be triggered?
The next election is not scheduled until May 5, 2022 but that date is not set in stone.
An election can be triggered if at least two-thirds of MPs vote for one.
The country will also have to go to the polls if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is confirmed by MPs within 14 days.
Speculation about a second election has surged since a Tory Brexiteer warned of a readiness to put Britain on the path to another election.
He told the Sunday Times: “The numbers are against us and if we face repeated defeats when the Withdrawal Bill returns to the Commons, the only alternative will be to kick over the table and trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, which will likely lead to another general election.”
This would be the nuclear option – sending the country to the polls and risking Jeremy Corbyn winning power rather than settling for a softer than desired Brexit deal.
Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, did not rule out the possibility of the country heading into yet another election.
He said: “Normally, that’s a fantastically unlikely scenario but these are not normal times. On Northern Ireland, on the customs union, on single market access and everything, it is possible that reality will start to bite for some people this year; certainly not everyone is going to get what they imagined they were voting for.”
What would a snap election look like in Wales?
Labour savoured a string of victories last year when it took three seats from the Conservatives – Cardiff North, Gower and Vale of Clwyd. This time Labour would go after Plaid Cymru-held Arfon, where there is a majority of just 92; the party would also have in its sights Preseli Pembrokeshire, where former Conservative Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb has a majority of 314.
Labour would also make an effort to unseat Conservative Defence Minister Guto Bebb from Aberconwy, which he held last year by 635 votes.
Plaid would funnel resources into Ceredigion to stop the Liberal Democrats taking back the seat won by Ben Lake by 104 votes.
The Conservatives will be anxious to stop Labour unseating Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns. He has a majority of 2,190 but the seat is held in the Assembly by Labour’s Jane Hutt.
However, there is scepticism in Labour circles that the Conservatives would risk another election after the 2017 fiasco, which saw Mr Corbyn’s party win 30 more seats and Theresa May lose her majority.
Swansea West Labour MP Geraint Davies thought the talk of a second election was an attempt by Brexiteers to intimidate colleagues.
He said: “This is the last desperate throw of the dice of the hard Brexiteers to try and force the Government to resist demands from the Lords and in the country to stay in the customs union and the single market to try and save jobs and businesses.”
What else could happen if Theresa May loses a vote of no confidence?
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards sees an opportunity to change the course of Brexit during the 14-day period after a vote of no confidence.
He said: “I think that those of us who want a sensible Brexit, who want to put the economy first, should use that opportunity then in that two-week window [to] form a government [that] would be able to carry the House of Commons in support of a Brexit that would include negotiating staying within the single market and customs union.”
Acknowledging that this idea of pro-EU MPs from across the party divides banding together will sound like a long shot, he said: “The window of opportunity might seem farfetched [but] I certainly didn’t go into politics to protect my own job. That would be a glorious – and probably the only – opportunity for those of us who are thinking about this rationally, about other people’s jobs [to] actually change the nature of the Brexit negotiations to date.”
Cardiff University’s Prof AwanScully played down the chances of this happening but, again, did not rule it out.
He said: “I think that’s very unlikely – extraordinarily unlikely but we seem to be living in unlikely times. I suppose one shouldn’t rule out anything, no matter how bizarre it seems.
“It’s very difficult to see people doing that, even hardline anti-Brexit people... They may well be willing to go against their party in certain parliamentary votes; maybe even in extreme circumstances on a confidence vote.
“But actually, for instance, being willing to put in place Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is I think impossible to imagine. It’s also pretty close to impossible to imagine the more pro-Remain forces being sufficiently well coordinated so they could put up some other plausible candidate for Prime Minister.
“Party is still just too important in British politics. We are not, I think, at all likely to suddenly see the Conservative party and the Labour party dissolving before our eyes and some new entity rising almost overnight and producing some moderate prime ministerial candidate.
“I think that’s just a step too far, even in a world that has Donald Trump as President.”
Montgomeryshire Conservative MP Glyn Davies stamped on the possibility of a second election, saying: “It’s not impossible but it’s highly unlikely because as far as I know very, very few people want it. The public certainly don’t.
“The public just want us to get on with it and deliver Brexit and an awful lot of issues that the Government is finding it difficult to find time for because of Brexit.”
Deputy Welsh Labour leader and Swansea East MP Carolyn Harris suspects an effort is underway to keep Conservative MPs in line by playing up the chances of an election in which they would risk losing their seats.
She said: “They won’t call an election because they know they’ll lose.”
When asked if she would like to see an autumn contest, she said: “I wouldn’t mind. Let me have the summer to recuperate and then I’ll be ready.”