The price of losing the tidal lagoon

ALUN Cairns knew he would not get an easy ride when he walked into the Commons chamber for Welsh Questions yesterday.

The future of the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon is hanging in the balance and the £1.3bn renewable energy project has won supporters across political divides.

Last year the UK Government came under intense fire for not electrifying the Great Western line from Cardiff to Swansea. Refusing to back the lagoon would send a wave of fire in the direction of the Wales Office.

Yesterday, Mr Cairns got a taste of what he can expect if the project is dropped, and he needs nobody to tell him the condemnation could get very personal.

Plaid Cymru Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP Jonathan Edwards said Mr Cairns was “fast becoming the grim reaper of Welsh politics” and added people in Wales would ask “what’s the point of having a colonial secretary at all”.

Mr Cairns’ political opponents would seek to make life as difficult for him as they can, with Labour seeking to win his Vale of Glamorgan constituency (which is held in the Assembly by Labour’s Jane Hutt). A variety of voices would also argue that the Wales Office belongs to a bygone age and can actually make it harder for the Welsh Government to work effectively with the UK administration.

Mr Cairns will no doubt feel frustrated. He knows that if the Swansea lagoon provided poor value for money at a time when consumers and the steel industry are concerned about energy costs he would face a roasting by the public accounts committee, the National Audit Office and billpayers. The Welsh Secretary, the fourth of the modern Conservative era, and his team take pride in their accomplishments. The scrapping of the Severn tolls could have a profound impact on the south Wales economy; a funding “floor” now in place protects the level of Treasury cash going to the Welsh Government; city deals could enrich communities; on his watch legislation was passed to turbocharge the powers of the Assembly and give AMs new control over its evolution. Plus a new Wylfa is a step closer.

Friends admire his energy and tenacity, and he provides a Welsh voice on important cabinet committees responsible for aspects of Brexit. But the political reality is such that losing the lagoon would provide his foes not just with ammunition but a giant bazooka.