WOMEN’S FOOTBALL
WALES ON THE BRINK OF WORLD CUP... BUT WHAT MUST HAPPEN TO SECURE A PLACE?
WALES Women are on the brink qualifying for their first World Cup after Kayleigh Green’s brace inspired them to superb 3-0 win over Russia on Tuesday night.
The victory sparked jubilant scenes, the likes of which have probably not been seen from any Welsh side since Chris Coleman’s aces were on that magical journey at Euro 2016.
Next it could well be Jayne Ludlow’s turn as manager to write her name into the history books with Wales tantalisingly close to next year’s showpiece in France.
Only England stand in the way. So what has to happen for the Welsh dream to be realised?
Here’s the full lowdown...
The state of play in Group One
TUESDAY night’s win over Russia guarantees Wales second place in the group, and sees them overtake England at the top.
Wales lead the Lionesses by a point ahead of their showdown with Phil Neville’s side, their last game of the qualifying campaign.
England have the luxury of a game in hand, an away trip to minnows Kazakhstan but that game will be immaterial if they emerge from their trip across the Severn empty handed.
In other words, if Wales beat England at home on August 31, then they are in the World Cup finals.
England are a real force in the women’s game, but Wales are yet to concede a single goal in the seven qualifiers they’ve played.
Would a draw against England be good enough to qualify?
IN theory, Wales could still win the group with a draw, although that would need England to slip up against Kazakhstan, which is highly unlikely. A draw is more likely to see Wales finish second, and that’s where it gets a little bit complicated as they face the agonising prospect of finding out if they are one of the four best group runners-up.
Those who followed the men’s side during the recent World Cup qualifying campaign will have some understanding of how mind-boggling this could get.
Out of the seven groups, only four runners-up will go through to the playoffs, with results against the bottom side in each group discounted.
So, it doesn’t matter if Bosnia or Kazakhstan finish bottom of Group 1, Wales will still have six points deducted from their overall total, given they have two wins over each of them.
Best second-placed teams as it stands
1. Germany: Played 5 Points 12 (GD +12)
2. Denmark: Played 5 Points 12 (GD +16)
3. Norway: Played 5 Points 12 (GD +8)
4. England: Played 4 Points 10 (GD +13)
5. Scotland: Played 4 Points 9 (GD +8)
6. Austria: Played 5 Points 7 (GD +1)
7. Belgium: Played 4 Points 7 (GD +1)
■ Wales (currently top of their group): Played 5 Points 11 (GD +5)
■
What needs to happen for Wales to earn a play-off spot then?
RIGHT then, pay attention. Whilst the above table as it stands seems straightforward enough, some of those teams may well end up as group winners. In which case the points from the sides currently top have to be factored in, minus anything gained against the bottom teams. So it’s as follows...
IF WALES DRAW
THEY will earn a place in the play-offs should three of the following circumstances occur:
■ Scotland pick up just one point from their remaining two games
■ If Scotland lose to Switzerland, win or draw with Albania, and Belarus beat Poland
■ Norway lose to the Netherlands by four goals in Group Two
■ Ukraine win their remaining games in Group Four and Denmark to lose to Croatia
■ In the same group, Denmark and Ukraine win their remaining games and Ukraine do so without overcoming an nine-goal swing
■ Germany lose to Iceland by eight goals or more in Group Five OR
■ Germany lose their remaining two games, with the Czech Republic winning theirs OR
■ Germany win their remaining games and Iceland lose to the Czechs
■ Belgium fail to win their remaining two games in Group 6
■ Finland slip up in either of their remaining two games in Group Seven.
IF WALES LOSE
IT looks a lot bleaker, but there is still a small glimmer of hope.
Defeat to England could still see Wales claim a play-off spot if three of the following occur:
■ Belgium lose their remaining games
■ Finland slip up in either of their remaining two games
■ Scotland lose their remaining two games
■ Scotland lose to Switzerland, win or draw with Albania, and Belarus beat Poland
■ Iceland lose their remaining two games by a combined total of more than the number Wales concede against England.
CONCLUSION
WELL, we did say it was confusing, so there’s a simple solution – that’s to win.
While there are plenty of possible permutations should they earn anything less than three points, it’s important to remember that Wales still have the luxury of being responsible for their own destiny.
A venue for August’s showdown with the Lionesses is yet to be decided, but wherever it is, Wales will certainly be up for it.