So how does Carwyn Jones’ successor-elect Mark Drakeford measure up?

HE is the only candidate at present in the leadership race to become the next First Minister of Wales, having secured the necessary backing of five Assembly Members.

But what would Mark Drakeford be like as Carwyn Jones’ successor? And what could it mean for Welsh business and the Welsh economy?

Here we assess and score him out of 10 across a number of measures.

BUSINESS CREDENTIALS

Well, in fairness he has yet to set out his stall and over the coming weeks he has a series of meetings planned with business organisations.

But in his current role as Finance Secretary he has hardly endeared himself to the commercial property sector in Wales in particular, with the introduction of the successor to stamp duty – the now-devolved land transaction tax.

This has resulted in commercial property deals over £1m having a tax rate of 6% compared to the old non-devolved regime, which remains in England at 5%.

Big institutional property investors are not going to pay the added 1%, but are just going to knock if off the asking price.

And that will put an even bigger squeeze on property developers in Wales, who are taking all the risk in the first place by building new office and industrial space.

And while the new higher tax band is only projected to bring in an extra £6m, it could prove more damaging in terms of lost investment to places like Bristol, Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham.

It also creates a negative perception of Wales in the eyes of business – in contrast to Carwyn Jones’ efforts to promote the country as a business-friendly place to invest.

But the great thing about taxes is that they can be quickly changed. So he would certainly regain the backing of the commercial property sector – and yes, it is only a small part of the economy – by quietly reducing it.

Although he is on the left wing of the Labour Party, he knows that that Wales needs a thriving business sector.

And if Wales ever had increased borrowing powers – currently at £2bn – he would have no compulsion in using them to boost the economy.

So the jury is still out among the business community. Mr Drakeford coined the term “clear red water” to describe the difference between Rhodri Morgan’s Welsh Government and Tony Blair’s New Labour – if he could put a bit of “clear blue water” between the current Welsh Government and Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, the business community might be more sympathetic.

And his stock would rise further if he introduced clear, measurable targets to the Welsh Government’s economic strategy.

PRAGMATISM 7 OUT OF 10

He has that in abundance and the Mutual Investment Model (MIM) is a great example of this

With the Welsh Government’s capital budget constrained, MIM is a way of working with the private sector to deliver much-needed infrastructure projects.

But isn’t this just the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, so hated by the left, by another name?

There is certainly greater overage for the Welsh Government under MIM than PFI schemes, which to be honest were far from all being bad.

But if you boil it down, they are the same – a mechanism using the financial muscle of the private sector to deliver projects and repaying them over the long term at a cost higher than if the Welsh Government had the capital budget to fund things upfront.

So while Mr Drakeford is on the left of the Labour Party, when faced with funding realities, he will continue to pragmatic and flexible if First Minister.

9 OUT OF 10 LEADERSHIP QUALITIES

There is a great deal of respect for him, not just from cabinet colleagues and Labour AMs, but across the wider Labour movment.

And in private too, opposition AMs would acknowledge his capabilities and grasp of detail – he is not one of those ministers happy to take short, headline-only briefings from civil servants.

And having the intellectual capacity to grasp the detail, he can mount challenges if necessary.

But he cannot micromanage everything as a First Minister in terms of policy detail.

So he would need to trust in his cabinet team and their abilities.

And if he is elected First Minister, one of his most important appointments will finding someone to replace him as finance minister.

Well, there a a number of candidates, including Huw IrrancaDavies.

There has long been a case for a strong Treasury function at the heart of the Welsh Government, where all departmental spending lines are scrutinised and best practice encouraged.

And interaction between civil servants, at all levels and departments, needs to be actively encouraged rather than, as in some cases now, frowned upon.

So don’t be surprised if Mr Drakeford, if elected as First Minister, introduces a powerful Treasury function at the heart his administration.

8 OUT OF 10 COMMUNICATION AND APPEARANCE

He is an effective communicator who can explain seemingly complicated matters, such as new taxes that have been devolved to Wales, in simple terms.

But could he look just a little bit smarter?

Okay, nobody is expecting him to be as well-dressed as the dapper Economy Secretary Ken Skates – although granted this can be a subjective exercise.

But a little tweak here and there, like doing up his top button and checking to see if his tie knot hasn’t slipped, could work wonders.

Carwyn Jones has grown well into his ambassadorial role of promoting Wales at home and abroad.