What would it take forTories to rebel?

JUST six Conservative MPs rebelled in a bid to ensure the UK Parliament would have a “meaningful vote” on the Brexit process.

The scene had been set for a parliamentary showdown in which Tory rebels and Opposition MPs would vote together to ensure Parliament could step in if there is the real possibility of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

But former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, the architect of the amendment that Labour had whipped its MPs to back, withdrew his support for his own proposals. He was satisfied with government assurances which, he felt, recognised the sovereignty of Parliament.

Constitutional lawyers can debate the extent to which the voice of MPs has been strengthened, and just how realistic it is to suggest they could grab the steering wheel if the country is on the verge of speeding out of the EU without a deal. The Commons Speaker could find himself or (if John Bercow leaves the stage before the Brexit process climaxes) herself having to make judgements of profound historic significance.

There is a sense that a can has been kicked down the road yet again and a decisive showdown between arch-Brexiteers and proEU Conservatives has been postponed. But it is questionable just how prepared the latter are to challenge the Government and unleash a crisis for the Prime Minister.

Yesterday demonstrated that the potential rebels are not a cohesive and disciplined group. Their negotiating power is limited by their willingness to go off in different directions.

There is talk of a further showdown on the customs union, but Brexiteers may conclude that the sabre-rattling of this group is just part of the soundtrack to the UK’s departure from the EU.

The pro-Europeans may have calculated that pro-Brexit Labour MPs meant they simply lacked the votes to defeat the Government. They will have been warned against doing anything that makes it more likely that Jeremy Corbyn could win the keys to 10 Downing Street; and they may have feared that if they humiliated Theresa May she could be replaced by a Brexiteer for whom a no-deal Brexit is not a nightmare prospect.

Nevertheless, the Government’s 16-vote majority is slender. If Tory divisions harden and fears about Britain’s future outside the EU escalate as Brexit Day nears, there is scope for a much more significant rebellion.